Folding TP vs Unknown

[gaming_mouse]

Pacific 3/6 Loose, Medium Aggression

Hero limps with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. 4 see the flop:

A/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif

Hero (acting first) bets. Called only by villain.

Turn: 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

giving Hero the flush draw. Hero bets, is raised, calls.

Flop: T/images/graemlins/club.gif

Hero checks, Villain (an unknow) bets, Hero ??

My only chances here are 1) This unknown is a maniac or 2) This is turn raise bluff, which seems highly unlikely.

My questions are:

1) How rare are turn raise bluffs at this limit?
2) Is this an easy fold?

gm

[craig r]

I don't play much 3-6 (yet), but you are getting 7:1 on the river..i think you have to call with top pair.

craig

[gaming_mouse]

Do you think this is a bluff at least 1 in 7 times? I do not, but I asked because I have a little doubt.

Other opinions?

[pfkaok]

I think you're most likely against at least 2 pair here, and a set might even be more likely as he waited until the turn to raise, which he would certainly do if he's a typical 3/6 party player. However you are getting pretty good odds, so a call wouldn't be horrible, and if your opponent has a high turn aggr factor then calling is even better, as he could easily have been bluffing or semibluffing on the turn. However, if he's a rock, who would never make a play like that then you're throwing a bet away here by calling.

[gaming_mouse]

pf,

your play, given the reads, seems right on. problem was i had no read, so i was trying to guess what this meant for the avg player. i'm pretty convinced a fold is correct here. a call is a mistake, though, as you said, not an abysmal one.

gm

[joker122]

he'd probably raise AK-AJ, and maybe AT, so if he has an ace I think you're chopping. that means you have to be against another Ax 1 in 3.5 times. a semibluff turn raise is possible but very will follow it up with a river bet, especially with an ace on board since they expect you to call. i think it's a good fold.

[ecooke]

I really don't care for the River check-fold.
With top pair and a busted draw I stilll think you can profitably bet and safely fold to a raise. And besides, everyone remembers the guy who bets down and then folds on the River to a single bet - I don't want to wear that bullseye.

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
And besides, everyone remembers the guy who bets down and then folds on the River to a single bet - I don't want to wear that bullseye.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with this at all... if anything they're going to remember if you bet the whole way, including the river, then fold to a raise. So if you're looking at image wise then check/call would be a cheap way to not look weak, however against your avg. player you're costing yourself probably almost an entire BB since there's not much chance he's bluffing. I don't think your "online image" is near that valuable.

And even if you think people are noticing that then you can just take advantage of it, like inducing bluffs or being able to get in more river CR's if you have a strong hand.

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
problem was i had no read, so i was trying to guess what this meant for the avg player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats why I like Party where you can datamine /images/graemlins/smile.gif
YOu don't get too many "no read" type situations.

How is the pacific 3-6 game BTW?

[ecooke]

Table image is really only an auxiliary factor in my reasoning. I agree that bet/folding will make you look weak - just like check/folding will - but you have TP and need to give it a chance to hold up.

[pfkaok]

Well yeah, but if you think that your hands is good then I like check/call rather than betting out. What do you expect him to call you with that you can beat, given that he just raised on the turn? I think if he's on a semi-bluff or bluff, which is really your only hope here, then he might fire again and you can snap him off.

[ecooke]

If the only way you can win is against a River bluff then check/call is better than bet/fold. But with TP I am reluctant to agree that the only hand you beat is a bluff. It has to be relatively close either way.

[gamblore99]

I think this is a call. The play is heads up, the pot is fairely big. its 3-6. There are many hands here he may semibluff, He may have a weaker ace and be trying to push out any draws. Although the board is not that coodrinated, i would feel I have to call here. As a bonus it may help with your read on the player.

[gaming_mouse]

I called (hating myself) and he showed down AT.

gm

[ecooke]

There is no reason to hate yourself for calling.