The Poker Bubble: Future of Industry

[lehighguy]

As someone who is considering starting to do this for a living I am wondering about the future of the industry. It seems to me an awful lot like the stock market bubble. Here's the facts.

1) The success of the WSOP and WPT have drawn a huge number of fish into the game. They are playing for fun or ego, but not profit.
2) This has brough a number of new professionsals in. They see the profit opportunity and take the fish for what thier worth.
3) As the WSOP and WPT become less popular, and of course the fish lose thier money, there will be less fish. However, the newly enlarged group of professionsals will still be there trying to make a profit.
4) Though one might spend a lot of time investigating how to play holdem a new game may come along that takes peoples fancy and your skills wont be as relevant anymore.

So what I'm asking is wether you think people are chasing profit that won't be there in a few years. Are people seeing others get rich and rushing in the way they did with the stock market bubble.

Thoughts, questions, comments, etc.

[AviD]

The games may be better than ever right now, but as long as poker has been around (alot longer than both our lifetimes combined)...there have been games that can be beat for a profit. I don't think the influx of "expert" players is going to outweigh the profitability to a point where the games become unplayable.

And its not like poker is "new", and furthermore doubtful an influx of "expert" players will dominate the tables. Would you be sitting at a table full of expert or even great players that make few profitable mistakes (disregard the probability of this kind of table even existing)?

As many have said, poker players and poker authors alike...game selection is paramount.

BTW, I went to Lehigh for 2 years...studied Chem E, but then switched to Comp Sci and changed schools. Nice campus...had some good times there! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[reid savid]

~Using the stock market bubble example helps little in predicting the future of poker. The sole purpose of the stock market is to make money, while poker is as much a form of entertainment as income. For example, think of poker as a new form of entertainment; all the recent WSOP and WPT hype simply advertised this activity.
~Even if the general base of players becomes less 'fishy', poker will stay profitable because there will always be players who play for entertainment value, not income. However, upper-limit games may suffer because most players with average incomes can't afford to lose above 15-30 consistently.

[lehighguy]

You went to lehigh, thats cool. I'm majoring in finance, but thats just a bullshit piece of paper i need for my wall street job i lined up. I do mostly math, and i went to an engineering high school.

When did yo go here? I actually transfered here my sophmore year. Got any good stories?

[AviD]

Hrm I grad highschool in 1996 and was there the next fall. Good stories and bad stories. Good parties up there for sure, although I'm not a "frat" kind of guy, that's about all there is up there.

I thought one of the most interesting "rules" on Lehigh is that the college police can't enter a frat house without authorization from the frat president of some BS like that.

I was there my freshman year, not planning on pledging, just partying with a bunch of friends that were...and we were hanging in this dude's room and they were smoking more than a chimney in winter, and then he busts out his stash in the "closet" and all I see are bricks over bricks over bricks stacked 10 high and 5 deep. Then the front door starts getting hammered on "POLICE, OPEN UP" and naturally our first year n00b asses get all worked up...they tell us to pipe down and STFU because the police can't enter. Nevertheless although I don't smoke, I've seen alot of weed in my time...but that dude's stash was insane. At first impression I thought his BMW, Lexus, and Range Rover were just a sign of his rich, spoiled ass...yeah he had 3 cars on campus and yeah I'm a hater FU ALL! /images/graemlins/grin.gif But in fact, it was probably just because he was one of the main campus suppliers...good times with the polic knocking. So the police enter the house, but they can't enter anyone's private room unless the door is opened. So they are knocking on the door and we are as quiet as church mice, keep in mind blasted out of our tree and most everyone but me high as a kite (maybe me too from secondary smoke)...but we don't answer and they leave...and the party continues.

So another good "view" was that same fall semester going to my first frat party. We were up after class as some friends had friends already in there, etc, etc...and they were "prepping" for the party. I can't recall how many cases we brought in...but I believe it was enough to fill two vans...and that was the "reload" from the night before. Those PA boys sure can drink, no doubt about it! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Funny I was in Wyoming hunting just a couple weeks ago and one of the guides said "Wyoming, Where the men are men, so are the women and the sheep run scared!". Interestingly, as I saw some of the girls up there drink (and look) more like men than anything. Man, some lushes up there...and I don't care what anyone says, you can drink until you pass out but 90% of the girls in the Engineering school didn't start looking any better! /images/graemlins/grin.gif Fortunately for you, you are in the Business School end...and there are some fine lookin women over that way! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

The cafeteria food was outstanding when I was there, but the same [censored] every day...but a wide variety. Those chicken sandwiches owned, that's all I remember! And we smuggled an assload of food out whenever we ate there.

Not sure if you are a gamer or not, but back then we played the original Quake and hooked up insane dorm wide games all day, almost every day. We were so sick into the game that we would go to finals and try to finish them as fast as possible to get back to playing. Yeah that's a pretty silly addiction and a good way to waste money, but as I'm sure you've experienced and are experiencing...just about everything starts to outweigh classes and sleep! /images/graemlins/wink.gif Were some awesome times and made some good friends...man I miss those days, enjoy em while yer there! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

What else, I never played (I mean really played) chess before going there. Some dude on my dorm hall was all into it, and taught me the game. I think I spent weeks playing Chess computers just making any old moves to see how they countered, and then learned their counter moves and therefore learned how to play chess more effectively. I couldn't think for [censored] though and it would take me forever to make even simple moves (not unlike the beginnings of playing poker or multitabling where it seems impossible to think that fast). Nevertheless, my first "live" chess game last like 3 or 4 hours and I won it, was pretty neat and my buddy was pretty pissed off considering he had played for years. Was a good time, I continued playing, eventually found ICC and played online quite a bit. Chess is a great game.

Some of the bad stories...few strange suicides while I was there. Never really had the details, but alot of it indeed involved drinking. Controlling your liquor isn't part of the Lehigh equation for most.

My roomate my first year was the dirtiest MotherF-er I've ever encountered in my life. You could literally see the damn line in our room between his sh*t and mine. We argued like hell, and he tried giving me this "this is how I am BS" but I could never bring myself to just beat his ass. One day, I eventually took all of his [censored] and stuffed it in his closet. He came back and was like "OMG WHERE THE HELL IS ALL OF MY STUFF, ITS GONE, SOMEONE STOLE MY SH*T!!!"
I held out on telling him anything and let him believe it was stolen for a short while. In retrospect, I should have thrown all his sh*t out the window and said I went to the bathroom, came back, and the cleaning lady was just leaving. Many he was a dirty mofo...needless to say my 2nd year myself and a few buddies got one of those on campus apartments and I snagged that single room real quick.

One thing I don't miss is the all weekers! No sleep, at all for days and days during finals. Cramming like whoa. After the semester ended it took me a solid week to just "calm down" from the all out insanity, and I slept for like 2 days straight after finals every semester. If this is your first semester...ummmmm get ready! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

OK...that's enough of a novel...hope you are enjoying your time up there. Oh yeah, watch out for the icy hills this winter, I saw ALOT of people bust their asses on those hills when it snowed/iced over. Man some harsh falls.

[reid savid]

leigh valley, PA??

I spent some time in Kutztown cycling at the velodrome.

[lehighguy]

Heh. I'm reading this post amazed. Everythings so similair to what you said.

I played chess on my high school team and we were state champions. I also play Warcraft 3 and me and my old roomate were like top 10 team players on the east coast. i've done a little partying myself but the frats do get boring after awhile.

My roomate sucked freshmen year at my old college. Probably a big reason why I tranferred. My roomate sophmore year is like my best friend though.

I'm a senoir now and graduated. Looking back wondering what the real world will be like. Am I really a 9-5 guy. Or is it poker all the way. WE'll see. I plan on comming back to lehigh for lehigh lefayette weekend next year though.

[AviD]

Yes, Lehigh University in Bethlehem, PA.