PT stats

[Vendal]

Cross posting this since someone suggested I post it here...


How far off am I here from what it takes to beat the small stakes games on Party? Now I know everyone thinks they are a winning poker player and to be honest, so do I. I've read TOP, HPFAP and SSH. I've had pokertracker for a little while now and this is what I've got so far:

1/2 and 2/4 on Party.

13,640 hands(sample size too small I know )

VP$IP: 16.74
VP$ISB: 22.89
-
Folded SB to steal: 87.80 (35/40 times)
Folded BB to steal: 75.86 (44/58 times)
Fold BB to steal HU: 70.59 (24/34 times)
(I'm thinking the above three stats are useless because of the small sample size and the fact that blind defence is less of an issue in the small stakes games)
-
Attempted to steal blinds: 19.24(98/494)
Won $ WSF: 28.51
Went to SD: 30.31
Won $ at SD: 53.05
PF raise: 6.77

Agression Factor:
PF: 0.55
Flop: 3.15
Turn: 2.74
River: 2.26

Overall 1.41

I'm give you what I think is wrong and I'd appreicate replies tell me how wrong I am and what I actually should be doing.

VP$IP,PF raise and VP$ISB.

I'm thinking for these small stakes games on party I may need to be playing some more hands but I'm finding it hard to fit in many more. My VP$IP recently has been climbing over 17 so I think I'm on the right track, but the games are not as loose as people think they are. I don't know how many more hands can be played profitably. My position VP$IP rounds up from around low 16s in EP to mid-high 17s in LP. I'm thinking I need to play even more hands for one bet from LP and do more raising over all. I also think I need to complete more hands from the SB. I've been raising more hands PF and have that over 7% recently but I know that needs to be about 9 or 10 %. I'm also having trouble finding more spots to raise PF.

Blind defence.

I may need to defend more but with the small sample its hard to say. I could be way off though.

Blind stealing.

Probably need to steal more but then again its different in small stakes when the amount people are going to fold is not as high.

Went to SD and won $ at SD.

I don't really know how far off I am on these. Could be part of my problem.

Agression factor.

I've been pushing over a 1.5 overall untill recently when I've droped off because of lack of confidence I guess. I thought a 1.5 was good.


Now I'd like to think of my self as a tight agressive player. I'm posting this here because so far I'm actually showing about -0.5/bb100. Now I know my sample size is MEANINGLESS in terms of winrate. But I thought that I'd post these stats to get some feedback on some stats like VP$IP ect that don't require 100,000.

I beleive I've been running bad over the last 15,000 hands or so. I know winning players often go through streaks like this due to the varince of playing in such juicy loose games and maximizing their EV by pushing small edges.

I'm maining posting this just to make sure I'm not WAY off and unable to beat the 1/2 and the 2/4 at Party. I'd appreciate any input people have on the stats. Thanks.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

whoever suggested you posted PT stat questions here is wrong. check out the nifty little FAQ provided by bisonbison on the top.

anyhoo. worrying about being too tight with a 17 vpip is nothing to worry about. 17 is fine. don't sweat it. if you're missing out on anything its not really much.

play more hands.

[Vendal]

Is this forum strictly for posting hands and discusing them? If so, sorry for posting it here...

I thought this might be a good place to get feedback on my play and I thought the stats might be some good information to use.

If 17 vp$ip is on the low side, what should I be aiming for? And what kinda of spread am I looking for from vp$ip UTG to button?

[MisterKing]

First off, I am declaring war on those that say there is no value in small (<30K hands) samples. War.

(polite war, to be a shade clearer)

1.) Small samples do not tell the full story, but they do tell a story. This is undeniable. You will not be able to draw the sort of definitive conclusions that you may be seeking with a smaller sample, but you will still be able to observe some important trends. What leads to those trends is much harder to divine in a small sample (i.e. was a good win rate due to strong play, or just strong cards?), but as long as you're willing to accept that a discussion of small samples can still be valid. At a minimum, statistical categories from your PT data may contain serious outliers (e.g. VP$IP of 30+) almost regardless of sample size. Correcting these early, as opposed to after 30K hands, can mean the difference between continuing play and going broke for many of us lowly non professionals, thank you very much.

2.) We rely on small samples all the time Not to harp on it, but most of us draw conclusions about *other* players all the time based on as few as 100 hands when we use exported PT data or the game time window. Why can we not at least spend some time analyzing our own play over a sample over 100x this size? We make monetary decisions based, at least partially (and sometimes wholly) on this "other player info" information by betting, folding, raising, or whatever. We track and use this small sample info because it has *some* value in figuring out our opponents. It isn't everything, but then again, how many of you would play 5/10 or 15/30 without PT data on your opponents? I daresay not many.

3.) If there's an interest, and people can learn through the discussion that flows from that interest, what's the problem? If there are people interested in giving and receiving advice on decision oriented stats, at the small stakes level, then there's no reason for the discussion not to take place. Often times, the discussion quickly migrates away from the actual stats and moves towards specific forms of play (limping with Axs UTG or whatever) that may be important for the players involved in the discussion. If a stats discussion is the vehicle that gets these important questions out, what's the harm?

4.) We have post subjects for a reason - use them when posting AND reading. This is addressed somewhat in bison's excellent guide. So long as people clearly label their posts, the people not interested in discussing that particular subject can just skip to the next post. This isn't difficult to do, people -- and frankly, reading upteen posts about how to play TT with two overcards on the flop in MP gets old after a while without a break in subject matter once in a while.

[MrFeelNothin]

Vendal- your stats look decent, just a little tweaking might be in order. Your VPIP could be a little higher, but 17-19 is ok. Your PFR however should probably be at least 10%, you could probably achieve this through more blind stealing and more blind defenses and eliminating most cold-calls. Your went to showdown is a little low, I would suggest 35-40%. As for your aggression, when people say you want to be over 2 or 1.5 they mean without preflop included. Your aggression numbers are very good. Good luck!

[helpmeout]

Keep posting stats, your sample size is good.

VPIP is too tight, 18-22 is good for the $2/$4 game.

If you cant find a way to loosen up then work on table selection.

PFR way too passive. You should be raising AJo KQo ATs 99 UTG many more when you come in later.

You probably arent limping with enough multiway hands in late position, hands like 98s Q9s A2s are all good after 4 limpers. Sometimes even 3 if you are confident the blinds will follow and your postflop game is good.

Your post flop aggression looks good, maybe slightly agro but most will disagree lol.

Dont fold so much in the blinds.

I think you need some $1/$2 6max experience for your blind stealing/defending and preflop aggression.

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
Cross posting this since someone suggested I post it here...

[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing wrong with that. See my other post in this thread for arguments as to why. I understand the case those that feel otherwise make, and respect their knowledge and ability, but disagree on this one point with them.


[ QUOTE ]
How far off am I here from what it takes to beat the small stakes games on Party? Now I know everyone thinks they are a winning poker player and to be honest, so do I. I've read TOP, HPFAP and SSH. I've had pokertracker for a little while now and this is what I've got so far:

[/ QUOTE ]

You're on the right track, my friend. Reading those books carefully, and keeping careful PT data alone puts you miles and miles ahead of joe blow on Party's 1/2 and 2/4 tables. With a little patience, and more importantly experience, you will be beating these games. So far so good.

1/2 and 2/4 on Party.

[ QUOTE ]
13,640 hands(sample size too small I know )

VP$IP: 16.76


[/ QUOTE ]

Looking good to me. Check back on this ever 5K hands or so and see which way it is going. Consensus seems to be that anything at or over 20 is too high, and below 15 too low (though I personally would have a hard time arguing against 15). If you are evaluating position, the texture of the game, the actions and tendencies of other players, and other key factors when deciding how to play pre-flop, you're in good shape. From what you typed later in your post, you are adjusting your play by position, which is important... some hands are raises late but folds early, though I'm assuming you already know that from TOP/SSH/HPFAP.

[ QUOTE ]

VP$ISB: 22.89
-
Folded SB to steal: 87.80 (35/40 times)
Folded BB to steal: 75.86 (44/58 times)
Fold BB to steal HU: 70.59 (24/34 times)


[/ QUOTE ]

To the extent you can rely on any of these (and I do agree with CDC and others that really you cannot, due to the small sample within the small sample nature of them), they seem a little off. From what I've read (a search might help here), you want to be mid-80s on folded SB to a steal, and about 60% in the BB. This is based somewhat on Sklansky's heads-up section in HPFAP.

[ QUOTE ]

Attempted to steal blinds: 19.24(98/494)
Won $ WSF: 28.51
Went to SD: 30.31
Won $ at SD: 53.05
PF raise: 6.77


[/ QUOTE ]

Long-term look to up the PF raise a little. Try to reduce the number of times you're first in with marginal hands early for a limp. And in late position, with limpers, do not be bashful about raising JTs, 99, AQo, etc. Per tripdad, the Won $ WSF is a tiny bit higher than normal, but your tight-ish VP$IP may explain this. Longer term look for a number in the mid 20's. With a lower VP$IP, maybe a little higher for the W$WSF. And you may be folding too much on the river with that SD%. My idea: re-read the SSH section on river play and see if that impacts your thinking.

[ QUOTE ]

Agression Factor:
PF: 0.55
Flop: 3.15
Turn: 2.74
River: 2.26

Overall 1.41


[/ QUOTE ]

Hard to say if you can read into these or not. Personally, I'd like my PF aggression to be a tad higher than what you have, but the other streets look ok. See what others think on this, as I'm no expert on AF & how it affects your overall game.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm maining posting this just to make sure I'm not WAY off and unable to beat the 1/2 and the 2/4 at Party. I'd appreciate any input people have on the stats. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. No harm in asking if you're at least in the right ballpark. Post some hands, engage in some discussion, and you'll surely benefit. The folks here in the SS Forum really are knowledgeable, and give away a ton of good advice for free. I know I've benefitted.

Good luck at the tables man, hope that win rate turns around for ya.

[bisonbison]

You've been a member for 5 months. It's time to make or respond to a strategy post. There's no other way for people to know how you play.

Why? Because there is nothing noticeably weird about your PT stats. You're well within the sanity range on everything.

Post hands.

edit: I'll also point out the guy who suggested you post these here said: "Nothing jumps out in your stats. You'll get more usefull feedback if you post hands rather than PT stats."

[bisonbison]

1.) Small samples do not tell the full story, but they do tell a story. This is undeniable.
Well, yeah, but a stat can be accurate without actually meaning anything, and all the handy stats (VPIP, PFR, Aggression, W$SD...) are vague and largely without context.

Depending on your game selection (level, time of day, site, opponents), a VP$IP of 20 may be just about good or way too high. And even if you know "okay, this is all Party 2/4 east coast evenings and I spend a lot of time searching for loose-passive tables", we don't know what hands he's playing where and why.

The original poster makes explicit the central problem with most stat posts (and especially stat posts in this forum) when he asks:

How far off am I here from what it takes to beat the small stakes games on Party?

Obviously, this guy's stats look fine. For 95% of these posts, the stats look fine. He may be a huge winner at these limits. He may suck. It's like trying to diagnose someone from a polaroid picture - if the arm isn't broken, what the hell am I gonna see? "Yeah, could be spleen cancer, please fold more on the turn."

[MisterKing]

I see where you're coming from. No question that posting stats without posting hands won't get you far, or that posting hands isn't more valuable than posting stats. My point was merely that there is at least some modicum of value in posting stats for new(er) players.

I actully think we're largely in agreement here, fwiw.

But I do have to disagree somewhat with your polariod example. If someone shows you a polariod with bumps all over their chest, you'll know to ask about skin ailments. If they post PT stats with VP$IP of 50 or 5, we'll know to ask about hand selection. Won $ WSF of 2.0? Well, are they folding post flop if they don't hit a set? The statistical indicators in and of themselves are almost beside the point (but not quite). The questions they prompt, and the types of hands they make us want to see posted are what is most important. A lot of new(er) players may not know which type of hands to key in on as far as what to post that might improve their game the most, and the PT stats sometimes helps people connect the dots and make good suggestions...