Does this call make sense?

[mackthefork]

The more I think about this the more I think its very straight forward, I had jsut dumped 3/4 of my stack to a 2 outer on the river after a turn push and the blinds where stupidly high compared to my stack, does anyone fold here?

PokerStars No-Limit (Turbo) Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed)

Hero (t1085)
UTG (t4360)
Button (t7645)
SB (t410)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls t400, <font color="CC3333">Button raises to t1200</font>, SB calls t185 (All-In), Hero calls t660 (All-In), UTG calls t800.


Regards Mack

[tigerite]

Er.. what if SB wins the hand? Then you go out 4th? But if you fold and he wins, he's only 200 chips more than you, and will hit the blinds again before you do (admittedly, you have the SB to come next hand, but still). Easy fold for me!?

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
Er.. what if SB wins the hand? Then you go out 4th? But if you fold and he wins, he's only 200 chips more than you, and will hit the blinds again before you do (admittedly, you have the SB to come next hand, but still). Easy fold for me!?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how, if he wins he has around 1600 and I have 660, surely you miscalculated somewhere.

Regards Mack

[ChrisV]

Yep, straightforward.

[tigerite]

Mmm, but what if the bigger stack beats you but not the SB? I'm not really sure 75o is going to win often enough against 1 out of 2 opponents. Tricky one.

[Gramps]

Three things:

-I feel your pain (especially of late) on losing 3/4 of your stack on the 2-outer. But...don't let it affect this hand.

-If you fold and SB wins the hand, he still only has 745 chips (50 ante I'm assuming, I think that's right). So, with the ante he has to pay, he'll be all-in again before you're forced all-in, meaning he'll have to win two hands to steal 3rd place from you.

-It's nice if you call and win b/c then you have like 3k in chips or so to play with...but what % of the time do you think 75o is going to win here? If it was a decent multi-way hand like QJs or something, the reward might be worth the risk, but even though it'll be 3-way sometimes (if UTG folds), and even though you'll get to see all 5 cards...saying you're 20% to win the hand on average is probalby being overly generous.

And by you staying in with 75o, the odds of the SB being eliminated don't increase by that much (only matters when SB beats UTG/button, but you beat everyone). Plus, he has a random hand, while UTG and the button (okay, he may be stealing, by why wouldn't he just push then?) seem to like there's. Let those guys do the dirty work, then you can try to get lucky to double up and make a comeback (once 3rd is locked up which it will be the majority of the time).

Edit: Oops, SB gets 200 + 740 if he wins...I still say fold 75o, but I guess it's closer than I thought (since he won't be forced all-in by his BB if he wins - unless the blinds escalate).

[ChrisV]

Gramps, what the hell are you smoking? Are you playing 200's at the moment, cause I'm going to sit to your left. Everyone's in this hand, Hero has posted BB of 400, so SB is going to win 1620 at a minimum (if both Hero and UTG fold).

To say that the chances of SB winning don't decrease much is flat out wrong. Take this as an example - I gave SB the most random hand I could muster:

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Ah 390495 35.96 693468 63.85 2045 0.19 0.360
Qd Jd 346286 31.89 737677 67.93 2045 0.19 0.319
4s 9c 148833 13.70 935130 86.11 2045 0.19 0.138
7c 5d 198349 18.26 885614 81.55 2045 0.19 0.183

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Ah 607473 44.32 759463 55.40 3818 0.28 0.444
Qd Jd 497797 36.32 869139 63.41 3818 0.28 0.364
4s 9c 261666 19.09 1105270 80.63 3818 0.28 0.192

SB's chances of winning decrease by nearly a third. That's HUGE. Note also your pot odds are above what you need to call in terms of chip EV.

Running this through the ICM (assumption: UTG wins side pots with no further betting) gives:

Call: .1911
Fold: .1773

[Gramps]

Yeah, that's what I get for trying to post while playing the 10/15 level of 4 tournies. I assumed SB had 185 to start the hand and was all-in...and later I was posting as I was entering tournies and got stuck playing a $215 limit SNG (but at least I got lucky and won that one /images/graemlins/grin.gif)...

I'm not familiar with ICM and it's assumptions. I don't doubt that calling would be +EV chip-wise. Whether it's +EV $dollar wise or not with the facts posted...hard to say, because your presence in the hand really doesn't do much to improve the chances of SB getting knocked out in 4th - so I think it's mostly a function of the risk that you'll get knocked out before SB, balanced against the reward of replenishing your stack when your 75o gets lucky and wins.

As far as your coming in 3rd place, the only way your presence in the hand makes a difference is if your 75o wins the hand and SB comes in 2nd. If 75o wins and SB loses to UTG and/or the button...well...you would have gotten 3rd place even if you had folded, b/c SB would have been eliminated anyhow.

If you assumed it was only the button, you, and SB, and you had 3 random hands, your presence making a difference (by you winning the hand and SB's hand beating the button's) would happen 17% of the time (factoring out ties, etc.). The button seems to like his hand, we'll assume the SB has a random hand (though he may have exercised some selection criteria), and 75o is near the bottom as far as hand rankings (HU or multiway).

I'd venture that in a 3-way pot with SB and the button, the above-described 3-way scenario is probably going to happen more like 10% of the time. And sometimes there'll be the presence of the 4th player as well (who on average probably has better than an average hand given his open-limp).

[ChrisV]

The purpose of the ICM is to determine your equity of the prize pool (which is what those decimals I gave are). It's imperfect but gives a rough comparative method.

[Daliman]

Your Sim results should have included an overpair, which would have shown the obvious answer here, fold, and also is pretty likely, ESPECIALLY considering the fact that the big stack raised the other big stack's open limp. Also, the SB should be given a much better hand than 49o for comparison purposes. Q7 is semi-wellknown as the average hand, what's wrong with that, other than the fact that it kills your theory by dominating 57o.

Fact is, it's a terrible call. Chances are you're guaranteeing 3rd at best, while folding could concievably get you into second by the beginning of the next hand.
Any gain of EV from ICM, which I can almost assure you, there is none, is HIGHLY mitigated by the variance.

FOLD!

[ChrisV]

An overpair is possible and would give a fold result. I don't think the big stack raising here means an overpair most of the time though, as the big stack here I'd raise with damn near anything.

And yes, if I give SB a hand which dominates Hero, then the results are going to look bad, lol.

It's possible that I'm overestimating the value of getting a stack of 3000 chips - I've never played one of these 15,000 chip tourneys. Perhaps the call is wrong, but there's no way I'm agreeing it's "terrible". I tried to make my scenario reasonably fair. Yes, I could give the button an overpair, but I could also give SB a hand that dominates the button, or a hand that is dominated by Hero, etc...

[Daliman]

either way, giving the short stack caller a hand like 49o will skew the results fairly considerably, I would guess. Try giving him Q8o then, since it's likely he may be better than average holding since he's not sitting out to hope someone else gets KO'd first.

[ChrisV]

Eh. I can't be bothered, lol. I don't think it'll make a lot of difference. The key point is whether SB wins the hand very much. If you give button an overpair, of have one of the other hands dominate SB, the model will say fold. Otherwise it'll say call (unless SB dominates you). Guess it depends how often you think one of those is true. In the long run neither choice will make that much difference - you get third most of the time SB loses.

ACTUALLY, I just realised something. I forgot to account for the times when you win the side pot when SB loses if you call. That will push it to even more of a call in my test scenario.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
ACTUALLY, I just realised something. I forgot to account for the times when you win the side pot when SB loses if you call. That will push it to even more of a call in my test scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, and giving the SB, button, and UTG (whatver % of the time he sees the flop) a more realisitic group of hands will push it to even more of a fold.

[sahaguje]

[ QUOTE ]
An overpair is possible and would give a fold result. I don't think the big stack raising here means an overpair most of the time though, as the big stack here I'd raise with damn near anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I think this would be a mistake. It was limped by UTG, who has a fair stack, and you are likely to be called by at least one short-stack no matter what happens. I would only raise here with a good hand. Caling here is a mistake, I think. With a limper and a raiser, there is a good chance one has an overpair, and I can easily be dominated by one on the three non-pair hands if no one has a pair. I think I am less than 1 to 4 here, and I wont gamble with such poor odds .

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5c 7d 161233 14.85 923192 85.01 1583 0.15 0.149
9c 9h 355640 32.75 728785 67.11 1583 0.15 0.328
Js 6d 200831 18.49 883594 81.36 1583 0.15 0.185
Ts Kh 366721 33.77 717704 66.09 1583 0.15 0.338

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5c 7d 132790 12.23 933775 85.98 19443 1.79 0.131
9c 9h 366659 33.76 717100 66.03 2249 0.21 0.338
Js 7h 185362 17.07 881203 81.14 19443 1.79 0.179
Ts Kh 381754 35.15 702005 64.64 2249 0.21 0.352

Or the best situation :
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5c 7d 216216 19.91 868150 79.94 1642 0.15 0.199
9c Ah 329558 30.35 754808 69.50 1642 0.15 0.304
Js 6d 211545 19.48 872821 80.37 1642 0.15 0.195
Ts Kh 327047 30.11 757319 69.73 1642 0.15 0.302

Even if there is an overpair only 1/3 of times, a better 5 or 7 1/3 of times, and a good situation (no overpair, no 5 or 7 out) 1/3 of times, I am 0.16 to win. I have to put 660 to win less than 3000. I clearly dont have the chip odds. And if we talk about money, I prefer taking my SB with 660, there's a good chance my hand will be much better than 7 5, maybe enough to come over the t400 lost.

sahaguje

[mackthefork]

25+25+25+25+400+1,060+385+400=2,345 chips thats what I'm playing for if UTG folds to the raise thats 3.55/1.

If UTG should call which I felt was fairly likely this increases to 3005 chips thats 4.55/1.

What I also considered was the reduced chances of UTG calling if I was to fold, leaving the SB getting about 7/1 on his last 200 chips heads up, not a scenario I wanted. I also felt it was likely to go to a 4 way showdown if UTG did call the raise.

In addition calling is the only way I can even consider aiming for a position above 3rd.

This was what they all had, and it did go to a 4 way showdown.

Me (BB) 75o EV 36.5%
SB AKo EV 38%
UTG AQo EV 16.5%
Button KQo EV 9%

On Dalimans point about an overpair, I must admit I never considered this possiblility and that was definitely a mistake however it turned out semi reasonably for me, and luckily two queens fell on the flop and that was the end of both me and the SB, and I got 3rd position.

Thank you all for your interesting comments, I am still surprised how many people seem to advocate a fold, and must admit I remain unconvinced of that line of reasoning, but then again who the hell am I /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

Regards Mack

[mackthefork]

Hi Gramps

The Stars blind ante system is like this

10/20
15/30
25/50
50/100
75/150
100/200
100/200 25 ante
200/400 25 ante
300/600 50 ante
400/800 50 ante
600/1200 75 ante
1000/2000 100 ante
etc

[ QUOTE ]
(50 ante I'm assuming, I think that's right).

[/ QUOTE ]

Regards Mack

[Gramps]

As far as your chances of winning the hand, that's about the very, very best you could possibly hope for with all three players in.

Absent an overpair for SB, that's about the worst, worst, you could hope for in temrs of SB getting eliminated. Ugh to him "double dominating" UTG and the button.

Hope the board contained 5 cards Jack or less with a 5 and/or 7 (and no wheel straight).

[Stoneii]

[ QUOTE ]
An overpair is possible and would give a fold result. I don't think the big stack raising here means an overpair most of the time though, as the big stack here I'd raise with damn near anything

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless I have seen 2nd big stack limp in regularly or take him for a chump then I have to respect his limp as he must know with 2 shorties behind him there's to be action.

As bigstack yes, I raise just about anything if I'm first in or see the shorties folding to outlast each other but my ears definitely prick up at 2nd stacks limp.

stoneii

[rachelwxm]

I think this is very close call after a long calculation. So I am obvious disappointed. Here are some of my thoughts: /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Assume UTG would fold first, since button is not likely resteal otherwise he would push, he has a better hands than any two from sb and obvious yours 75o is worst than any two.

So I put winning percent of button sb and you are
45% 30% 25%
You are not always out when sb wins, I guess you win extra 1/3 of time against button, that gives you 1200 chips vs sb 1600 chips, so rougly your EV is 8.2 if that happens. So your EV of calling
45% 20 Button win
25% 30 u win
20% 0 sb win and u lose to Button
10% 8.2 sb win and u win Button
average EV=17.5

if u fold, I put sb win 35% and button win 65% then your EV
35% 8.2 sb win
65% 20 button win
average EV=15.9

So its close but it’s a call. The fact UTG might call as well once you move in only works in your favor since you win more chips if you win and both you and sb decrease chance of winning. Obvious you don’t really care as long as sb is out.

Hope this is clear. Just want to keep it as a record for me since I don't know how many people care to read this.
/images/graemlins/smile.gif