Aggro Check, Raising Hands from the Blinds vs. 2 Limpers.

[B Dids]

I feel like I'm playing too agressive out of the blinds vs. multiple limpers. Are you raising the following hands out of the blinds with more than one limper? (ETA- just to be clear, we're talking 6 max situations).

[B Dids]

OK,

Looking at the KQo vs KQs results.

Suitedness is nice and all, but do we really feel like it makes that much of a difference, such that half of the people who've answered would raise KQs and call KOo?

[Benjamin]

[ QUOTE ]
Looking at the KQo vs KQs results.

Suitedness is nice and all, but do we really feel like it makes that much of a difference, such that half of the people who've answered would raise KQs and call KOo?

[/ QUOTE ]
We are talking about the margin here, and that is the margin for me. Suitedness adds about 3% to a hands win percentage ... that is significant enough to make me want to raise for value w/ KQs while w/ KQo I'll usually check/complete.

B.

[turnipmonster]

wow, I am surprised by the results. I raise every one of these and I play too tight /images/graemlins/frown.gif.

[Peter_rus]

The only hand i vote 'no' is KJs. Then i ask myself why im doing so?


Some math for support:

AJo flops *top* pair 27.17% of time add 0.33% of flopped straight
KQo as KQs flops top pair 26.82% of time. Add 0.84% for KQs for flopped flush, and 0.65% for flopped straights for both.
KJs flops top pair 24.37% of time add also 0.84% for flopped flush and also 0.65% for flopping straight.
99 flops no overcards flop 20.71% of time add also set probability of 11.75% of time

So resulting we have:

99: 32.46%
KQs: 28.31%
AJo: 27.50%
KQo: 27.41%
KJs: 25.86%

Right now i understand why i intuitevely choose KJs. It's cause i like to see flop in which i can extract some money postflop more often. 4-card flush and 4card-straight draws are unlikely to extract additional money postflop when it's only 3-way. At best they will take postflop fair share with high cards in a hands maybe a bit more. But i like more situations when im 70:10:20 ahead on flop (which will be with TPGK) instead of 45:35:10 which is usually be when you're against any pair with your flush draw and 2 overcards. Of course probabilities above don't take to mention your agression factor and chance to take the pot when you have exactly nothing. But if you believe that all will fold in more than 33% of cases to your flop bet if you raised PF you can easily raise with any 2 and also take to mention that the more you raise the more people tend not to believe your raises and proceed at first with any pair on dangerous board, than with A-high and then with K-high.

I really want to know what % of pots i capture with no pair or more in my hand against 2,3 and 4 opponents but this kind of info cannot be extracted from Pokertracker.

[Entity]

I don't play 5/10 6max, so I don't really feel qualified to say much, but the limpers are so bad at 1/2 6max I raise a lot more than these, including QJs, KTs, A9s+...

Rob

[Grisgra]

I feel like a wuss. I only raise KQs.

[smartalecc5]

same here :'( /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/blush.gif /images/graemlins/cool.gif /images/graemlins/crazy.gif /images/graemlins/wink.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Grisgra]

What do you do when you miss? The nice thing about just completing is that you've got lousy position, and can check/fold if it's been bet/raised before the action is back to you.

If I raise pf, it's very rare that I don't fire out on the flop -- but firing out with 99 with a two-suited board of KQ7 -- just seems risky. But check-folding after raising from the BB seems lame.

So how often do you check/fold when you've missed? Or do you *always* fire that flop bet out there and see what's what?

[helpmeout]

I raise all of them, because:

1) If they had an Ace they'd usually raise, meaning I can usually steal the pot if an Ace hits.
2) If they are limping it usually means they are weak players so I have an advantage postflop.
3) Raising gives me the initiative so I will win when everyone misses.

If I miss the flop I usually bet vs 2, if I have nothing on the turn HU I will fire again if I think the opponent will fold. If I have nothing against 2 on the turn I will check/fold.

[ALL1N]

Hey Pete, where did you get these statistics?

[HajiShirazu]

I raise all of those- I raise KTs, QJs, QTs most of the time as well. These are mostly sheer value raises, although out of the SB I raise a bit more often in the hopes of folding out the BB.
When people are going to come in with absolute trash, I see no reason not to raise and collect as much value from these hands as possible, since they are usually far better than what your opponents are playing.
You do take away some of your action by raising here, especially with AJ-if you raise this and an ace flops, you wont get as much action-on the other hand if you raise QJs and an ace flops you often will be able to bet and pick up the pot.

[Peter_rus]

It's combinatorics. I perform this myself. For eg. probability of flop which will be all lower than T equals 30/50*29/49*28/48=20.71%.

[Peter_rus]

I checked my equations and spot some mistakes. Fixing them:

Probability of top pair or higher (but not straights or flushes) for

AJ=27.59%
KQ=27.35%
KJ=25.05%

for eg for KJ eqution is

Prob of top pair and higher= prob of two pairs and higher+prob of single K flops without A or J on board+ prob of singe jack flops without Q,K,A on board

so prob of top pair and higher=3.47% + 3/50*40/49*39/48*3 + 3/50*36/49*35/48*3

[joker122]

i don't see why you wouldn't raise every one of those hands. you figure to have great equity against 2 limping hands.

[MrFeelNothin]

More than two limpers and I would want my hands to be suited. Against 2 limpers I'm definitely raising all of these.

[TJD]

Let's assume that 2 players limp; the SB folds and it is up to you in the BB. We already have some equity in this pot due to the fact that we have a potential "free" look at the flop. When we decide to raise, the EV must be based on the bet odds for this round of betting. We are getting 2:1 so we need 33.3%+ for value.

Each of the examples shown has chances less than that of hitting TP or better on the flop. Monte Carlo, they all have more than their fair share but that assumes we will go to the river whatever happens which I presume is not the case.

Since the odds of hitting a good flop are < bet odds, these can only be +EV if we gain some equity from somewhere and I presume this is folding equity on the flop having taken the initiative.

You said you would like to know how often people fold to your flop bet. It is an interesting question. Do you have an "estimate" with 2 opponents so that we can form a guess at the value of these raises?

Is my analysis of the situation correct? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

T

[Peter_rus]

[ QUOTE ]
Is my analysis of the situation correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's correct. You can't raise 2 limpers and proceed only when you see *your* flop. Situation's correct when you raise 3limpers or more, than you can easily buy card on flop or fold flop without even thinking.

I have no idea what is my usual probability of folding opponents to my flop bet(turn bet as well), when i raised 2 limpers. But i think it's greatly depends on playing style. If i was complete LAG probability is little, as well as when i simply was on a rush. If i was a rock, i could occasionaly raise bad hands just because people believe me and fold equity is very high.

[ QUOTE ]
Since the odds of hitting a good flop are < bet odds, these can only be +EV if we gain some equity from somewhere and I presume this is folding equity on the flop having taken the initiative.

[/ QUOTE ]

Many people said that when the people that when you face LAG's you shouldn't raise PF, cause you have no folding equity. I tend to disagree with it, cause no folding equity is greatly compensated by great implyed odds you getting by flopping your cards, cause LAGs like to bet/raise very marginal holdings and increasing the pot early forced them to more agressive betting future rounds.

[djoyce003]

I raised everything but the 9's and AJ. I raise 9's from early position, but not against multiple limpers because, they are not going to fold, and overcards are more than likely to fall. I feel like I'd rather see a flop, and hopefully spike a set. Otherwise I might fold to overs, maybe i'm not playing them right. I just don't think a late position raise with 9's is going to make one of them fold, and i'd rather play the 9's heads up.

I would raise ace jack against 1 or 2 limpers, but would likely limp with more than 2. Partly to be deceptive, but also partly because it generally really needs an ace to fall, the jack often doesn't hold up.

[Peter_rus]

[ QUOTE ]
I raised everything but the 9's and AJ

[/ QUOTE ]

It's unbelievable. These 2 are the strongest hands from hands in topic above and you... slowplayed them to fold. I like to see you at the tables i play. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Grisgra]

Still waiting for an answer!

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you do when you miss?

[/ QUOTE ]

Still bet about 75% of the time...by raising preflop I have placed the burden on them to connect.

[ QUOTE ]
The nice thing about just completing is that you've got lousy position, and can check/fold if it's been bet/raised before the action is back to you.


[/ QUOTE ]

So you give up EV preflop just to avoid stressful spots postflop? That sucks. It's the same argument for not raising AK out of the blinds against many limpers - it really has very little merit.

[ QUOTE ]

If I raise pf, it's very rare that I don't fire out on the flop -- but firing out with 99 with a two-suited board of KQ7 -- just seems risky. But check-folding after raising from the BB seems lame.


[/ QUOTE ]

Again, a hand like 99 has too much equity not to raise preflop and I don't see how that is refuted by the fact that the flop will come unfavorable sometimes.

[joker122]

so you raise KJ but not AJ? the suitedness of KJ doesn't come close to making up the strength gap between the 2 hands.