A Common Situation: Heads-Up with a Draw

[sammy_g]

This situation is so common I want to be sure I am playing it correctly.

Party 5/10 6 max. No reads. Folded to Hero on the button with Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Hero raises. SB folds. BB calls.

Flop: T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

BB bets. Hero raises. BB calls.

Turn: 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

BB checks. Hero ???

[Grisgra]

I bet, because I like betting. I think that this is a +EV play overall, but partially because of image. I'm growing less convinced that, given that turn card, it's +EV for that hand.

It's unlikely he's on a flush draw and unless he has 98 there isn't much he could have except a T, 7, or 3. Many 5/10 players (and certainly, 1/2 players) will hold onto their pair unless a high card or two come on the turn/river, thinking that you're just being aggressive with overs or a draw (and you are).

So while he might fold a 3, he's almost definitely not folding a T or even a 7. And you're not 50% to make your hand. And your hand has no showdown value, so you'll be tempted to fire again on the river if you miss and maybe get something weak like 43 to drop.

So I'm starting to think that in this situation checking behind might be best, take the free card. Not that I'm going to do it, of course. I like betting. /images/graemlins/grin.gif After all, he could just be taking a shot at you.

[Yads]

Tough call. I voted take the free card Though I think if you raised on the flop you should fire off on the turn see if he'll drop. That 4 couldn't have helped him. If he calls you'll probably have to give up your bluff on the river.

[Mr. Amanti]

though this is somewhat player dependant, i will most likely bet again, its still a semi bluff, but a strong one. I probably don't have to say this, but given the amount of times that your opponant folds plus those times when you do make the best hand either with the flush or spiking an ace makes this +EV

[Rostioff]

It depends a lot on the type of player you're against and how this player perceives your play. If you have a tight image in the game the BB will be more likely to put you on a real hand. If so, his bet/call on the flop likely means he's planning on calling you down. In fact, his leading into you says he does have a piece of that flop. If he sees you as an aggressive player who will raise the flop with overcards, then he may be setting up a turn check raise and you don't have enough hand to call down in order to catch a bluff at the river.

An earlier post commented that the 4 probably didn't help him, but it definitely isn't a scare card to make him fold. If he bet into you with any pair, you're getting called down. If he's a tricky player you stand investing two turn bets if he has a strong hand or if he's running a bluff. It's a tight spot, but against most opponents the free card is preferable.