Fold AK preflop????? HAND ANALYSIS

[winky51]

Party Poker 3/6 (10 handed)
Hero has Ac, Kh and is MP1

Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, Button caps, SB folds, BB folds, Hero folds, MP2 calls

Flop(11 1/3 SB): Jd, 3d, 9s

MP2 checks, Button bets, MP2 calls

Turn(6 2/3 BB): Ad

MP2 checks, Button bets, MP2 calls

River(8 2/3 BB): 4s

MP2 checks, Button bets, MP2 calls

MY THOUGHTS: Ok I got AK a top ten hand with a raise and reraise behind me. I think fold here. I am up against a high pair AA-QQ and most likely JJ or another AK. I figure at best I have 4 outs on the flop if against a QQ or JJ and another AK. 11 1/3 SB going into the flop with at best a tie hand. I have a 1:4 shot at making an A or K on the flop and I might be drawing dead. Right fold?

[winky51]

MP2: AK wins
Button: QQ

It was the best possible scenario for me to win a marginal amount of bets

[Quindle]

There are times when you need to fold AKo preflop. This is not one of them. There are 11 bets in the pot with more action guaranteed. You don't fold for 2 bets.

[Nottom]

Folding AK here is a big mistake. If you were in the SB, then it becomes an option, but not with 2 bets already in the pot.

[winky51]

I disagree with both of you. This is what I see....

I am upagainst a big pair AA KK QQ and another AK-AJ, probably AK or a pair. If I am up against another AK then I got 4 outs to SPLIT THE POT.

The capper has 1 66% chance to have the AA or KK considering he capped it and only a 33% chance to have QQ in my book.

The 1st raiser probably has AK or AA-77. Consider there are 26 possible hands he has to beat or tie me. 35 that are not. The capper has I think a 66% chance to have me dominated. so 40% for tie or beat times 60% for dominated. So I am likely to win 25% of the time. If I call/raise all the way down it will cost me 5 BB to win 7 2/3 BB in the end. If I don't tie or one of them slowplays the set and I lose money. So how is this profitable for me?

1/4 chance to win 5/7 amounts of money
3/4 chance to lose/tie 3 1/2 to 5 BBs.

Where is the logic in calling this?

Even in the books it says not to call 2 bets cold, very rarely. Why would you fold AK and QQ to a raise and reraise before you but not in this situation?

[Evan]

This is awful. You're getting >5-1 immediately with one of the best hands in Hold'em. Do not fold here. I wish I could give you more analysis if you're really thinking this way, but its really just a textbook kind of rule. If its capped to you preflop then you can fold AKo I guess, but not here.

[MrFeelNothin]

I think your estimates of your opponent's possible hands are very conservative. In addition to your range, the 3-bettor could also easily have AQ, AJs, KQs or even possibly A10s. Especially if you have been raising a lot of hands. So I think you are ahead of him far more than half the time. As for the capper, I would say AA-JJ and AK, possibly more but you have provided no reads so I don't know. He has the button and without a specific read that he is very tight, I don't see how you can limit his range to AA, KK and QQ. I don't think hes folding JJ or AK so I think he would be more likely to cap and try to force you to call two and to take control. As it is, I have AK and there are a lot of bets in the pot and a decent chance I still have the best hand or at least a lot of outs, I'm seeing the flop. I also would like to reiterate that you probably need to pay more attention to reads based on the fact that there were none in your post. Poker is not played in a vacuum.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
The 1st raiser probably has AK or AA-77.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you know about the raiser? Is he a complete rock? If not, you're far too conservative on the range of hands you put him on. If so, you're probably still a bit conservative.

[ QUOTE ]
The capper has 1 66% chance to have the AA or KK considering he capped it and only a 33% chance to have QQ in my book.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ditto for capping hands on the button. Are there exactly three hands he would cap with on the button and *absolutely* nothing else? Not even AKs?

[ QUOTE ]
40% for tie or beat times 60% for dominated.

[/ QUOTE ]

In other words, 100% of the time, you're doomed? That's very pessimistic.

[ QUOTE ]
If I call/raise all the way down it will cost me 5 BB to win 7 2/3 BB in the end. If I don't tie or one of them slowplays the set and I lose money. So how is this profitable for me?

[/ QUOTE ]

Who said you have to call/raise all the way down? And forseeing a slowplayed set is a bit paranoid. First, get to the flop with one of the best starting hands possible. Then at that point you'll be better able to determine where you stand and what you'll need and if it's worth continuing (it probably will be worth seeing the turn because the pot is so big, unless the other two start to go nuts on you).

[MoreWineII]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you fold AK and QQ to a raise and reraise before you but not in this situation?


[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't. Let me guess, you play a lot of NL?

[HajiShirazu]

If the pot is going to be 3-way or more, I cap it myself with AK. Why would you fold here. That's crazy.
On the other hand I usually fold AK if the pot is capped by the time it gets to me, because most people don't cap without aces or kings.

[drudman]

I agree, and a good way to think about it is probably to say, okay, if I'm in UTG+1 with hand XX, do I make it two bets? The answer is yes for a lot of hands that you dominate. Then, if you're in MP1 with hand XX, do you make it three to go to isolate? Answer is still yes for enough hands that you are ahead of to still make it a no-fold. Does this make sense?

Do you disagree with this?

[MarkL444]

[ QUOTE ]
MY THOUGHTS: Ok I got AK a top ten hand

[/ QUOTE ]

just curious. you wouldnt happen to be thinking of hellmuths top 10 hands, would you?

[MrFeelNothin]

great book eh Mark?

[winky51]

Well these 2 players had been at the table a while and all I had seem them raise reraise only top ten hands. I put them on these 2 hands due to their previous play. They were poorer players but not the typical bad player. I take very good notes on everyone and check poker tracker when in question. So maybe I got lucky on my read.

I know who raises with crap and who doesnt at my table. I have only been playing one year and still make mathematical mistakes but I do have a very good sense for players. My local 10/20 game I practially never lose. My average for a 6 hour session is $389. Thats how well I know these players. I do very well live. Online its more difficult but I feel I am usually right. I have busted players trying to bluff at me because I know how they play online. I have had 14 days of profit and one bad beat day online.

[drudman]

No offense, but if you've only been playing online for 15 days... /images/graemlins/confused.gif How can you say that you can make this kind of read on a guy preflop?

You really don't believe that both guys could make this raise with, say, 88 and JJ? Or KQo and AQs? You have to literally not believe that there are a range of hands that these guys could be raising in order to make a read like the kind you are saying. You simply cannot do that.

[eh923]

You've mentioned "top ten hands" in more than one post. If you've based your play on Play Poker Like the Pros, then:
(a) You're lucky you've been a winning player to this point. The limit HE advice is absolute horse$hit.
(b) You should remember the top ten hands includes crap like 77.

You folded a great hand in a good size pot, when you were already in for two bets. That's silly. Call the cap, and see what the flop brings.

Your math explanations MIGHT have some merit...but I really doubt you came up with them while playing. They seem more like a way to try to rationalize a horrible decision after the fact. By the way, it's not working.

[Bob T.]

The capper has 1 66% chance to have the AA or KK considering he capped it and only a 33% chance to have QQ in my book.


Your book is wrong. If he would play all three hands the same way, then it is more like 50% AA or KK and 50% QQ.

The capper, could very well also have JJ, AK, or even AQ suited. I'm not saying those are necessarily the right plays with those hands, but that they are a possibility that happens alot.

Your range of hands for the raiser, is also much too tight.

I would also threebet with AQs, and depending on what I thought of your play, I might threebet a lot more hands than that. After you raise/fold preflop, A lot more hands. I now know that you can lay a hand down, so I will be threebetting, and firing on the flop, and expecting to win a good percentage of the time, regardless of what you hold.

I frequently see threebets from a lot of worse aces. Yesterday, I got threebet from A7o, and he bet every street unimproved.

Given your assumptions, your fold might be correct, but I think that your assumptions were way too conservative, and your conclusion was similarly too conservative.

I think that you are making a bigger assumption, that is going to cost you a lot of money over the long run. That is, you assume that your opponents play like you do, and they don't. When you see them make a play, you have to figure out what it means when they do it, not what it means when you would have made that play. That you are considering what you would make that play with, is a good start, but it isn't really going to get you very good answers all of the time.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.