Cerril
12-01-2004, 05:05 AM
Okay, so I know I've got problems. Beyond knowing that -everyone- has problems, a big downswing (from up 140BB to down 20BB over the course of 5k hands) has demonstrated to me more than well enough that it's not just luck.
Now a good chunk of that is luck. Just comparing this stretch of 7k hands (from break even up, and then down) to much larger samples on hand I've noticed that I've caught far fewer (a third) flushes, and my two pairs and trips, are holding up barely 50% of the time - if I were to call down every hand to the river regardless I believe that my number over the long run would be far higher. These are expensive aspects of variance.
In other news, the 'extra' hands, where those percentages are going to, are almost entirely in the 'high card' category. Even at the river, I'm seeing a lot more hands ending up in the 'high card' and 'one pair' category (to the tune of about 7% more of my total hands) - and keep in mind that some hands labeled 'one pair' were on the board.
So yeah, I'm running worse than average and I have what I feel are stats to prove it. I could stop there but besides not considering myself a perfect player, I know there are leaks causing a downswing this bad, and probably serious ones.
The problem is, I'm having a hard time identifying them. I know they're there, and that some are me being too aggro when I should fold (also an aggro move, I must tell myself) or maybe even <gasp> call. And I'm a little weak sometimes, folding when I should raise or call. Problem is, I feel like most of my errors now are in the marginal category. Most, not all, but I've gotten better at seeing the obvious leaks I have left when they show up in my hand histories.
1) Calling down high card hands. I picked up a bad habit at .5/1 that I thought I'd gotten rid of as I advanced. Sometimes ace high is good. I'm seeing too many showdowns with nothing better than AQ or AK. And I'm betting them too heavily postflop. Overall my total 'high card at showdown' category is in the green but I'm releasing too many after putting in too many bets. Specifically I went from showing down 8% and winning 12% to showing down 12% and winning 8%... that resonated, and I'm doing that less.
So there's one problem. But what about the rest? That shouldn't account for the 'skill' part of my bad streak, so I'm curious what you guys do. Step one is accomplished though, I don't even want to risk tilt so I took a nice break, read some, played some video games... got away from poker entirely for a bit, then back in on the theory side. I feel now that playing won't make things worse.
Hand histories have been problematic. Most of the ones I find interesting usually aren't, or will come up too rarely to make any adjustments based on.
So aside from having someone of much higher skill sitting behind me while I play, what's a good way to start leak-hunting?
Now a good chunk of that is luck. Just comparing this stretch of 7k hands (from break even up, and then down) to much larger samples on hand I've noticed that I've caught far fewer (a third) flushes, and my two pairs and trips, are holding up barely 50% of the time - if I were to call down every hand to the river regardless I believe that my number over the long run would be far higher. These are expensive aspects of variance.
In other news, the 'extra' hands, where those percentages are going to, are almost entirely in the 'high card' category. Even at the river, I'm seeing a lot more hands ending up in the 'high card' and 'one pair' category (to the tune of about 7% more of my total hands) - and keep in mind that some hands labeled 'one pair' were on the board.
So yeah, I'm running worse than average and I have what I feel are stats to prove it. I could stop there but besides not considering myself a perfect player, I know there are leaks causing a downswing this bad, and probably serious ones.
The problem is, I'm having a hard time identifying them. I know they're there, and that some are me being too aggro when I should fold (also an aggro move, I must tell myself) or maybe even <gasp> call. And I'm a little weak sometimes, folding when I should raise or call. Problem is, I feel like most of my errors now are in the marginal category. Most, not all, but I've gotten better at seeing the obvious leaks I have left when they show up in my hand histories.
1) Calling down high card hands. I picked up a bad habit at .5/1 that I thought I'd gotten rid of as I advanced. Sometimes ace high is good. I'm seeing too many showdowns with nothing better than AQ or AK. And I'm betting them too heavily postflop. Overall my total 'high card at showdown' category is in the green but I'm releasing too many after putting in too many bets. Specifically I went from showing down 8% and winning 12% to showing down 12% and winning 8%... that resonated, and I'm doing that less.
So there's one problem. But what about the rest? That shouldn't account for the 'skill' part of my bad streak, so I'm curious what you guys do. Step one is accomplished though, I don't even want to risk tilt so I took a nice break, read some, played some video games... got away from poker entirely for a bit, then back in on the theory side. I feel now that playing won't make things worse.
Hand histories have been problematic. Most of the ones I find interesting usually aren't, or will come up too rarely to make any adjustments based on.
So aside from having someone of much higher skill sitting behind me while I play, what's a good way to start leak-hunting?