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winky51

12-01-2004, 01:32 AM

Whats the probability of a max stretch suited connector gettting a favorable flop? 45s-JTs

FAVORABLE FLOP TYPES:

2 pair
trips
full house
quads
flush
straight
top part open ended str8 draw (87s with 65K on the board for example)
Flush draw
str8 and flush draw.

I am figuring it about 21.55%. Am I wrong?

MortalWombatDotCom

12-04-2004, 04:55 AM

MortalWombatDotCom

12-04-2004, 06:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Whats the probability of a max stretch suited connector gettting a favorable flop? 45s-JTs

FAVORABLE FLOP TYPES:

2 pair
trips
full house
quads
flush
straight
top part open ended str8 draw (87s with 65K on the board for example)
Flush draw
str8 and flush draw.

I am figuring it about 21.55%. Am I wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

interesting question... i'll modify my odds calculator to calculate this as well, and let you know.

did you come to 21.55% by hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

i changed my mind. i won't modify my odds calculator to calculate this. i find your FAVORABLE FLOP TYPES to be quite arbitrary. when you list 2 pair do you mean any 2 pair, or 2 pair on an unpaired board? also, if your straight draw is to the nut straight, why do you care what end it is? is 56 with a board of 34K any stronger than 78 with a board of 269? why do you sometimes spell out "straight" and sometimes use "str8"?!? Mr. Flibble is very cross. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

winky51

12-05-2004, 05:31 AM

Ok I will clarify for you. We will use JTs as the example as it is one of my flavorite hands, mmm, MMM!

JTs
TYPE FLOP
---- ----
2 pair JT5
trips KJJ
full house JJT
quads TTT
flush 29Q all same suit
straight 789, 89Q, 9QK, QKA
open ended str8 draw (top or bottom)
Flush draw You know
str8 and flush draw. You know

MortalWombatDotCom

12-05-2004, 07:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Whats the probability of a max stretch suited connector gettting a favorable flop? 45s-JTs

FAVORABLE FLOP TYPES:

2 pair
trips
full house
quads
flush
straight
top part open ended str8 draw (87s with 65K on the board for example)
Flush draw
str8 and flush draw.

I am figuring it about 21.55%. Am I wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

looks close but not the same as what i got. i hacked my odds calculator to figure out the frequency of hands and draws on the flop. i got 24.51%.

since you (i am guessing) did the calculation by hand, you can compare your breakdowns with mine and point out any discrepancies (i did practically no verification that i got the code right).

my program counts all 2 pair, not just hidden ones. this is because it required a smaller change to the code, and also, i didn't care that much. you should replace my program's value (792) with the number of hidden two pair (3 ways to pair the top card * 3 ways to pair the bottom card * 44 ways to pick a card from the remaining 11 ranks = 396), which will reduce my outcome by 2.02% to about 22.49%. The other difference between your calculation and mine is that i include all open-ended straight draws, while you only consider the top-end ones, but the difference there should be more than the ~ 1% remaining between your value and mine. my best guess is that you counted some hands multiple times, (like counting each straight flush draw once as a straight flush draw, and at least once more as a flush draw and/or a straight draw, or counting each hand with both a straight draw and a flush draw, such as 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif in hand with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif7/images/graemlins/spade.gifJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif on board, twice, once as each) when you worked it out by hand. my second best guess is that i screwed up my code, but you should be able to set me straight there when you point out which of my numbers aren't right. the output below is for 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, but the results are the same for J/images/graemlins/spade.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gif, which adds at least a small amount of confidence in my answer.

high card with open ended straight draw: 1146 (5.85%)
high card with flush draw: 1008 (5.14%)
high card with open ended straight draw and flush draw: 114 (0.58%)
high card with open ended straight flush draw: 63 (0.32%)
pair with open ended straight draw: 396 (2.02%)
pair with flush draw: 504 (2.57%)
pair with open ended straight flush draw: 36 (0.18%)
two pair with no draw: 792 (4.04%)
trips with no draw: 308 (1.57%)
straight with no draw: 222 (1.13%)
straight with flush draw: 12 (0.06%)
straight with open ended straight flush draw: 18 (0.09%)
flush with no draw: 140 (0.71%)
flush with open ended straight flush draw: 21 (0.11%)
full house with no draw: 18 (0.09%)
quads with no draw: 2 (0.01%)
straight flush with no draw: 4 (0.02%)
total hands = 19600, good hands = 4804 (24.51%)

Lost Wages

12-05-2004, 10:10 PM

Your numbers look off e.g.:

flush with no draw: 140 (0.71%)

should be C(11,3) minus the 4 straight flushes = 161 flops.

Lost Wages

MortalWombatDotCom

12-06-2004, 02:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Your numbers look off e.g.:

flush with no draw: 140 (0.71%)

should be C(11,3) minus the 4 straight flushes = 161 flops.

Lost Wages

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, well, 140 flushes with no draw plus 21 flushes with an open ended straight flush draw = 161...

BugsBunny

12-06-2004, 01:11 PM

OK, where's the mistake here. There obviously is one since I came up with a higher percentage. I probably have a duplication error, but where?

Flush draws, including made flushes
OESD, including made straights
2 pair or boat
trips
quads

using TJs

flopped flush draw, including made flushes and straight-flushes.
C(11,2)*48/19600 = .1346938776

flopped 2 of a kind not including boats.
6*3*44/19600 = 0.0404081633

flopped 3 of a kind, including boats and quads
6*2*48/19600 = 0.0293877551

OESD + made straights. possible combos: 89, 9Q, QK
where neither card is a flush card:
3*3*48/19600 (3 sets) = .066122449

where 1 of the 2 cards is a flush card and neither of the other 2 is
2*3*38/19600 (3 sets) = .0348979592

Total = 0.3055102042 or 2.2732130916 to 1 against

MortalWombatDotCom

12-06-2004, 01:21 PM

another small tweak, you probably don't want to consider trips on board as good, that means subtract 44 of the trips hands from my total.

MortalWombatDotCom

12-06-2004, 01:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
flopped flush draw, including made flushes and straight-flushes.
C(11,2)*48/19600 = .1346938776

[/ QUOTE ]

well, you are overcounting here. C(11,2) is the number of ways to pick two flush cards, and 48 is the number of ways to pick the fifth card, but you selection method counts [A/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif ] 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif once, and [2/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif] A/images/graemlins/spade.gif once, and [A/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif] 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif once, but they are all the same flop.

[ QUOTE ]
flopped 3 of a kind, including boats and quads
6*2*48/19600 = 0.0293877551

[/ QUOTE ]

looks like you are counting 6 ways to hit one of your cards, 2 ways to hit that card again, then pick the last card from all possible cards. this time you are counting quads and full houses multiple times.

[ QUOTE ]
OESD + made straights. possible combos: 89, 9Q, QK
where neither card is a flush card:
3*3*48/19600 (3 sets) = .066122449

[/ QUOTE ]

here you count every made straight multiple times... 8/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif gets counted once as [8/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif] Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif and once as [9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif] 8/images/graemlins/club.gif

similar problem with your last group... if we hold spades, you count [8/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif] Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif once and [9/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif] 8/images/graemlins/club.gif once.

winky51

12-09-2004, 04:19 AM

Cool thanks for doing the math. There are a couple things of note. 2 pair i.e. (56s) FLOP: Q56 is vulnerable to other hands and the board pairing later on, running 2s or a board like 356 and another 3 comes. I ran a simulation manually for about 500 hands and saw that out of all these flops about 1 in 4.5 I felt safe with continue playing. Of course there is also the fact that sometimes you str8/flush gets beat by a higher one or you miss your draw.

The reason for this post was to see exactly what do you really need in limpers to use suited connectors? I figure about 3 callers in total.