A final table hand

[Nick B.]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t4000 (6 handed)

CO (t26k)
Button (t200k)
SB (t46k)
Hero (t51k)
UTG (t65k)
MP (t28k)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="CC3333">UTG raises to t8000</font>, MP calls t8000, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls t4000.

Flop: (t26000) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets t9500</font>, MP folds, Hero...

I will give my thoughts and analysis after some responses.

[Nick B.]

This hand was at the final table of this week's Empire 50k guaranteed touranment. My opponents are typical party players, so nothing to really look out for.

[jslag]

It's either you push all-in or fold. I'd lean towards pushing, his bet looks weak to me.

You're only a slight dog if he has a Queen or Ten with no spades in his hand.

Also, depending on the player and his raising/stealing standards, I might have moved all-in on him preflop for the re-steal.

If he's the type of (Party) player that raising higher when he steals and only min-raises when he has a premium hand, then this is a clear fold.

[James282]

Looks an awful lot like AK no spade, JJ, 99, or 88(none with a spade or I think he'd bet the pot at least). That flop underbet screams weakness so I'd be tempted to drive him out with a big raise on the flop --- on the other hand, if you wait til the turn you'll have more information depending on what drops. If he does have AK or AJ no spade you are way ahead, and even if he catches up you have a lot of redraws. So I think either line is good, but I'd lean towards coming over the top now because the pot is so big and each chip means so much at this stage in the tournament.
-James

[kuro]

You have to base your decision on previous behavior. Many people try to say that because the bets weak you should push, but that is just dead wrong against many players. An underbet like that can just as likely mean, "I've got the nuts and I'm not afraid of you seeing another card which is why I'm giving you odds to call." The guy made it to the final table and you've got to figure he didn't make it there by bluffing with underbets.

So unless you've got a strong read on this player that he underbets on stone bluffs or that he usually folds to a reraise then you should fold. There are just too many hands that he could have that are ahead of you. You've only voluntarily invested 4k into this hand so it shouldn't be that hard to let go.

[Nick B.]

In poker you have three options every play. You can either fold, call, or bet/raise. My first thought was that hit 9.5k bet was very weak. Having a spade in my hand helped my decision. The pot was pretty large at the time, but I didn't want to go broke holding a pair of 7's with two overcards and a very non nut flush draw.

Since my read was anywhere from perfect, I needed more information, so I decided to see what the turn was and how he reacted. I called his bet.

The Turn was the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I knew that card killed my hand. I checked and my opponent instantly checked.

The River was the T /images/graemlins/club.gif

This paired the board and I had a very interesting decision on my hands. I couldn't beat any hand that my opponent could hold that he would raise from UTG, but I also didn't know if he would call my all in, if I made one. I used my time bank and decided that the opponent was too bad to fold an ace and checked.

My opponent turned over A6c and took the pot. I think that I played this hand perfectly. I avoided going broke when I might be drawing dead. My opponent didn't bet even when he hit his card, so I don't think he would have pushed a bet in on the turn without hitting his card. I had my opponent drawing very thin and he hit.

[kuro]

I'm just not that convinced that the turn is going to give you information that is worth the cost of that card. What cards are going to come on the turn that are going to result in you concluding to fold to a raise? What cards are going to give you the courage to call him down or push all-in? Are you really going to think your flush is good if a spade comes?

I'm really interested in this because these kind of situations occur all the time.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just not that convinced that the turn is going to give you information that is worth the cost of that card. What cards are going to come on the turn that are going to result in you concluding to fold to a raise? What cards are going to give you the courage to call him down or push all-in? Are you really going to think your flush is good if a spade comes?

I'm really interested in this because these kind of situations occur all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not looking for any cards, I called on the flop to see if he will bet the turn. An assumption which is wrong is that an opponent that bets the flop will automatically bet the turn. Are you going to bet AK no spade on the turn after getting flat called on the flop with that board? If a spade comes and he checks the turn, yes I think my flush is good.

[davidross]

I think you should have played differently so you had the 200K at this point /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

I would have to fold. The money goes up so considerably with each place at this point, and you still have 2 stacks shorter than you, and another about the same. I don't think I want to put my tournament on the line here.

[Scooterdoo]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that I played this hand perfectly

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you played it completely wrong -- but please don't take offense, it's just my opinion (not worth that much &lt;G&gt;).

Preflop his raise looks very weak and I would have seriously considered coming over the top of him with either a substantial bet or all-in. If he had a better pair or a strong Ace I think he would have bet quite a bit more at this stage of the tournament.

On the flop I either fold or again make a strong raise with folding being the likely choice. A call for this much of your stack is the only move I would not consider. What are you hoping to find out? Unless a 7 (non spade) comes on the turn you pretty much need to fold to any bet. Sure he may check down the turn and river as he did and perhaps you might win, but other than the check/check scenario I think you are in trouble. It's just too much of your stack and too weak of a hand to call. As other people have pointed out many players will underbet the pot when they flop a flush or have the A or K of spades in this scenario. The obvious plays are to either check (with a strong hand) or to make a pot-sized bet, but if he flopped the flush he doesn't want you to go away. Making the underbet is perfect if he had a strong hand because you don't figure him for the hand (which is what happened -- e.g., you figured him for weak). Also, if he had a pocket pair better than yours, say 88-TT, he could be testing the waters with a bet to see if you will come over the top of him and show strength so he will now give up his hand. This is one of the reasons why I would consider a re-raise here.

[James282]

Your analysis ignores so many of the mitigating factors that it can hardly be taken seriously. Did you see the cold-caller in the middle, for instance?
-James

[Scooterdoo]

Missed the cold caller (sorry about that) so I take back the preflop re-raise, but I do stick by the flop fold.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]

I would have to fold. The money goes up so considerably with each place at this point, and you still have 2 stacks shorter than you, and another about the same. I don't think I want to put my tournament on the line here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I was putting my tournament on the line here. I would still have 30k if I called and then folded the turn, but if I won the pot, I would be in good position to win the tournament. I read him for a weak hand on his flop bet, and I didn't think he would risk his tournament by betting on the turn without improving.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
Missed the cold caller (sorry about that) so I take back the preflop re-raise, but I do stick by the flop fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you stick by the flop fold? Getting ~3.5-1 on a hand that I think I am ahead on? I think I am either ahead with the pair, or have a flush draw that will win for me. In this hand I actually had both.

[Scooterdoo]

I would probably fold, but re-raising would be fine too if you really believed that he was weak. I think calling is the only thing I would not do. Why? You are committing about 25% of your stack for the call (haven't looked back but this is what I remember). Given his UTG raise, while he probably doesn't have a super strong hand, he does likely have a pair better then yours or an Q or T.

His bet could also reasonably be read to mean that he has a spade higher than yours and he's testing the waters. My point is that you are committing 25% of your chips and if he bets again (unless a 7 comes) you are really in deep trouble.

Let me put it this way... what do you do if he a spade comes on the turn and he forces you all-in? What do you do if a blank comes on the turn and he forces you all-in? My point is that you are committing 25% of your stack on the flop without learning anything about his hand other than the fact that it's likely he has you beat or he has a better spade than you. If he bets again you are in trouble and might need to commit the majority or the rest of your stack on a very speculative situation. I'm not sure why the pot odds are relevant if you are only drawing to two cards since you would then be an 11 to 1 dog. The bigger problem is that your flush draw is so susceptible to a better flush that you would be hard pressed to call a significant bet with it.

Sure it turned out that you were leading him, but that’s not the point.