Some HHs (Teh early exits and basic stats)

[stupidsucker]

Some basic stats on the streak.
I am including the last 139 games played from 11/25-11/29. All of these are played 8 at a time.
ITM 29.50
ROI -18.31
1st 11
2nd 9
3rd 21
4th 25
5th 23
6th 25
7th 20
8th 2
9th 2
10th 1

KK was my biggest trouble hand when it came to beats. Ax caought a lot. It seemed like every time.
I had KK 32 times 21 went to showdown. My win % at showdown with KK is 47.62% with a loss of 1,960 chips.

I am going to post this in pieces.

My only 10th place loss was KK vs AA.

I am positive I should lose my chips here.

***** Hand History for Game 1221700520 *****
15/30 TOURNEYTEXASHTGAMETABLE (NL) (TOURNAMENT 7433866) - THU NOV 25 13:59:11 EST 2004
Table Table 11491 (Real Money) -- Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Seat11 (800)
Seat 2: FoosMonger (755)
Seat 3: glendower (800)
Seat 4: LetsDoubleUp (845)
Seat 5: OXYGEN8 (950)
Seat 6: Tuna_420 (725)
Seat 7: bluffboy15 (775)
Seat 8: Rotag323 (855)
Seat 9: RamDan1212 (800)
Seat 10: burtwalsh (695)
Rotag323 posts small blind (10)
RamDan1212 posts big blind (15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Seat11 [ Kc, Kh ]
burtwalsh calls (15)
Seat11 raises (95) to 95
FoosMonger folds.
glendower folds.
LetsDoubleUp raises (200) to 200
OXYGEN8 folds.
Tuna_420 folds.
bluffboy15 folds.
Rotag323 folds.
RamDan1212 folds.
burtwalsh folds.
Seat11 raises (705) to 800
Seat11 is all-In.
LetsDoubleUp calls (600)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Ts, 7c, Th ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 7s ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 2c ]
Creating Main Pot with $1640 with Seat11
** Summary **
Main Pot: 1640 |
Board: [ Ts 7c Th 7s 2c ]
Seat11 balance 0, lost 800 [ Kc Kh ] [ two pairs, kings and tens -- Kc,Kh,Ts,Th,7c ]
FoosMonger balance 755, didn't bet (folded)
glendower balance 800, didn't bet (folded)
LetsDoubleUp balance 1685, bet 800, collected 1640, net +840 [ Ah As ] [ two pairs, aces and tens -- Ah,As,Ts,Th,7c ]
OXYGEN8 balance 950, didn't bet (folded)
Tuna_420 balance 725, didn't bet (folded)
bluffboy15 balance 775, didn't bet (folded)
Rotag323 balance 845, lost 10 (folded)
RamDan1212 balance 785, lost 15 (folded)
burtwalsh balance 680, lost 15 (folded)

<font color="green">Did I play 99 to loose here? I have good position, Its a tight table. (only 1 out)It was only hand 2 of this level of blinds. If you dont push here, what do you do? </font>

***** Hand History for Game 1234834594 *****
100/200 TOURNEYTEXASHTGAMETABLE (NL) (TOURNAMENT 7511103) - SUN NOV 28 19:07:55 EST 2004
Table Table 11140 (Real Money) -- Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: TehBluffman (770)
Seat 2: semaj3284 (1100)
Seat 3: RotoRoot (800)
Seat 5: sffdlt777 (1377)
Seat 6: foxybrown69 (340)
Seat 7: ShagKing (520)
Seat 8: Fendsi (1055)
Seat 9: candt19 (730)
Seat 10: Aices_Fool (1308)
RotoRoot posts small blind (50)
sffdlt777 posts big blind (100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to TehBluffman [ 9h, 9c ]
foxybrown69 folds.
semaj3284: damn that first knock out took forever
ShagKing folds.
Fendsi folds.
candt19 folds.
Aices_Fool folds.
TehBluffman raises (770) to 770
TehBluffman is all-In.
semaj3284 folds.
RotoRoot calls (720)
sffdlt777 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Qs, 9s, Th ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Td ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 4h ]
Creating Main Pot with $1640 with TehBluffman
** Summary **
Main Pot: 1640 |
Board: [ Qs 9s Th Td 4h ]
TehBluffman balance 0, lost 770 [ 9h 9c ] [ a full house, Nines full of tens -- Th,Td,9h,9c,9s ]
semaj3284 balance 1100, didn't bet (folded)
RotoRoot balance 1670, bet 770, collected 1640, net +870 [ Qd Qc ] [ a full house, Queens full of tens -- Qd,Qc,Qs,Th,Td ]
sffdlt777 balance 1277, lost 100 (folded)
foxybrown69 balance 340, didn't bet (folded)
ShagKing balance 520, didn't bet (folded)
Fendsi balance 1055, didn't bet (folded)
candt19 balance 730, didn't bet (folded)
Aices_Fool balance 1308, didn't bet (folded)

<font color="green"> I am not even going to post my third early exit.(9th place) It was KK vs ATo and A8o in a threeway all in preflop. I was the aggressor. Of the 2 8th place finishes. One I am a little ashamed of. The other was a bad beat my AQs vs QJs Turn killed me after we were all in </font>

***** Hand History for Game 1227680813 *****
100/200 TOURNEYTEXASHTGAMETABLE (NL) (TOURNAMENT 7468858) - SAT NOV 27 00:10:49 EST 2004
Table Table 11183 (Real Money) -- Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: TehBluffman (745)
Seat 2: XemptyseatX (1270)
Seat 3: NickerThal32 (995)
Seat 4: mfowler17 (640)
Seat 5: AandB24 (245)
Seat 7: LooneyPlayer (1030)
Seat 8: wavecrasher (810)
Seat 9: KBUCK23 (2265)
KBUCK23 posts small blind (50)
TehBluffman posts big blind (100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to TehBluffman [ Kh, 4c ]
XemptyseatX folds.
NickerThal32 folds.
mfowler17 calls (100)
AandB24 folds.
LooneyPlayer folds.
wavecrasher folds.
KBUCK23 calls (50)
TehBluffman checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Ks, 5d, Jc ]
KBUCK23 bets (100)
TehBluffman raises (645) to 645
TehBluffman is all-In.
mfowler17 calls (540)
mfowler17 is all-In.
KBUCK23 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 3s ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 9d ]
Creating Main Pot with $1480 with mfowler17
Creating Side Pot 1 with $105 with TehBluffman
** Summary **
Main Pot: 1480 | Side Pot 1: 105
Board: [ Ks 5d Jc 3s 9d ]
TehBluffman balance 105, bet 745, collected 105, lost -640 [ Kh 4c ] [ a pair of kings -- Kh,Ks,Jc,9d,5d ]
XemptyseatX balance 1270, didn't bet (folded)
NickerThal32 balance 995, didn't bet (folded)
mfowler17 balance 1480, bet 640, collected 1480, net +840 [ Kc 8c ] [ a pair of kings with eight kicker -- Kc,Ks,Jc,9d,8c8c(kicker card) ]
AandB24 balance 245, didn't bet (folded)
LooneyPlayer balance 1030, didn't bet (folded)
wavecrasher balance 810, didn't bet (folded)
KBUCK23 balance 2065, lost 200 (folded)

<font color="green">Above I dont normally do that, and I do hate top pair bad kicker after being in the BB. Is folding this too weaktight? I really really hate calling it down. I think I must push or fold here at this level. </font>

Ok these were my ONLY early exits in the whole run. So far so good. I EXpect to suffer a beat or two at this early after 139 games. Its gets rough come 7th-5th where I have over 20 losses in each spot.

[zephyr]

It seems very odd to me that you would have so few 9th and 10th place finishes. What would you do in the following situation?

1st hand, you're on the button with 99, two limpers, you limp, sb fold, bb pushes all in, all fold to you. Somehow BB shows you AKo. What do you do?

Zephyr

[Unarmed]

KK and 99 are obviously fine.
K4 hand - I hate being in that situation as well, and will normally tip my hat to SB for getting the first bet in and fold. Also, given the board your push pretty much defines your hand as TPWK as you have no reason to overbet the pot to protect your hand against draws. (except QT) Still, I can't say its the kind of horrible move that would represent a major leak or anything.

My 2 cents.

[stupidsucker]

I fold.

Of course this is a hypothetical that can never happen, but the proper move with QQ not seeing his cards is FOLD imo.
The only hand I call here with is AA or KK.

Am I alone on this?

[stupidsucker]

I am fairly confident that if I were to post every hand of all 139 SnGs that you would find nothing more then iffy situations.

I cant remember more then 1-3 times that I was disapointed with my play. If I do have a leak I am pushing too often or not enough. This K4 push is one that I am not so hapopy with, but I cant see it as a HUGE leak, because this situation rarely comes up.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

1st hand, you're on the button with 99, two limpers, you limp, sb fold, bb pushes all in, all fold to you. Somehow BB shows you AKo. What do you do?

Zephyr

[/ QUOTE ]

Dirt easy fold. Every time.

eastbay

[stupidsucker]

Blinds are 50-100 You are UTG with A4o and 600 in chips.

BB has 1050. No one is tiny, and no one is HUGE. There are 7 players remaining.

Push or fold?

What I did is in white.

<font color="white"> FOLD without hesitation. I get KTo in the BB and someone pushes I fold again. I end up with AQo in the SB CO min raises and I push. Did I play this poorly?</font>

[tigerite]

KT is a tricky one in the BB, would depend where the push came from, and from what size stack, but I'd probably fold it too. AQo - maybe a stop and go here? You'll be called on the push whatever, it depends if you think you've the better hand (which you probably have).

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1st hand, you're on the button with 99, two limpers, you limp, sb fold, bb pushes all in, all fold to you. Somehow BB shows you AKo. What do you do?

Zephyr


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Dirt easy fold. Every time.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

Eastbay

Why are you folding this, I also fold 99 to a push early, but its because I believe I am behind to the range of hands that pushes over me. Are you folding here because you have a high expectation of getting the chips in the pot in a much better spot later on? (e.g against a dominated hand).

Regards Mack

[adanthar]

99: I open raise and then decide whether to fold to a push or not. Folding equity is irrelevant since at the $30's TT and AQ still call an open CO push (as they probably should).

K4: I call and see what he does on the turn. You are either way ahead or way behind and a bluff will almost never fire a second barrel once the BB calls this board.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1st hand, you're on the button with 99, two limpers, you limp, sb fold, bb pushes all in, all fold to you. Somehow BB shows you AKo. What do you do?

Zephyr


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Dirt easy fold. Every time.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

Eastbay

Why are you folding this, I also fold 99 to a push early, but its because I believe I am behind to the range of hands that pushes over me. Are you folding here because you have a high expectation of getting the chips in the pot in a much better spot later on? (e.g against a dominated hand).

Regards Mack

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I believe I have a better than 55% chance of doubling through after seeing a flop that hits me, or catching a big pair.

I can also get a much better overlay on an underpair matchup by waiting until blinds are much higher.

eastbay

[zephyr]

Please explain your logic.

This was my analysis. If you call:

Win: 1640 chips; 55.7% of the time; $EV(using ICM)=0.1882

Lose: 0 chips; 44.3% of the time; $EV=0

$EV(call)=0.557*0.1882 = 0.105

If you Fold:

785 chips 100% of the time; $EV(using ICM)= 0.0983.

So by this analysis you call. Here's the problem with this analysis. If you are a player with an ROI of 30%, then your $EV with even stacks is not 0.1, as the ICM gives. Instead it is 0.143, since you have a skill advantage. So what about when you double up? What then does your $EV become, or more importantly, how does your skill advantage influence your $EV?

If we instead assume that if you Fold:

$EV=0.14

Then for the call to be correct you'd need a $EV of:

$EV(call)*0.557=0.14 =&gt; $EV(call)=0.25 when you double up.

Your claim is that your $EV after doubling up is clearly less than 0.25, hence an easy fold.

So back to my original statement: Could you please explain your logic.

Only my opinion,

Zephyr

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

So back to my original statement: Could you please explain your logic.

Only my opinion,

Zephyr

[/ QUOTE ]

I already explained this once but here goes again:

The ICM undervalues a fold in this situation. I should qualify that by pointing out it depends on the stakes and your skill advantage. For some players this is a clear call. For me, I feel it is a clear fold.

I have better than a 55% chance of doubling up with much less risk. Hence, I will take that opportunity over 55% with full risk.

eastbay

[zephyr]

[ QUOTE ]
The ICM undervalues a fold in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, that's why I stated $EV(fold)=0.14, for a player with a 30% ROI. Do you agree with this statement?

If you agree with this statement, then for a fold to be correct the $EV(call) would need to be less than 0.25. Is this what you are saying?

Only my opinion,

Zephyr

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
The ICM undervalues a fold in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, that's why I stated $EV(fold)=0.14, for a player with a 30% ROI. Do you agree with this statement?


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have an opinion on it. I don't know how you arrived at it, but I don't think it would be helpful even if I did.

[ QUOTE ]

If you agree with this statement, then for a fold to be correct the $EV(call) would need to be less than 0.25. Is this what you are saying?


[/ QUOTE ]

I think haggling over point oh-something differences coming out of suspect equity models here is not particularly instructive.

I think it's close - maybe I overstated my position. I also think it's too contrived ("you know he has AK") to be getting too deep into any real analysis on it.

I feel my money can go in in a better spot. Simple as that.

eastbay

[zephyr]

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
The ICM undervalues a fold in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, that's why I stated $EV(fold)=0.14, for a player with a 30% ROI. Do you agree with this statement?


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have an opinion on it. I don't know how you arrived at it, but I don't think it would be helpful even if I did.

[/ QUOTE ]

I simply arrived at it by saying that a player with a 30% ROI has a begining ev of 0.143. At the 10+1's he expects to win $14.3. Hence the definition of ROI. I think my logic is slightly flawed here though.

[ QUOTE ]
I think haggling over point oh-something differences coming out of suspect equity models here is not particularly instructive.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know that this example is highly contrived, and that the it is a reasonable close decision. Developing an accurate equity model for each stage of the game is hugely important though, and I think that is what is at the heart of my thoughts here. The ICM is reasonably accurate in the mid-late stages of the game imo, but it has very limited application in the early stages.

What I'm getting at is that I don't think this particular problem can be solved without first understanding equity in the early stages of an sng, a topic which has had very little work done on it.

An accurate equity model for all stages of an sng, in my opinion, is one of the keys to being succesful in them. Whether this model is based on qualitative experience,I think what you are trying to say here:[ QUOTE ]
I feel my money can go in in a better spot. Simple as that.

[/ QUOTE ], or is based on a quantantative model, really doesn't matter, but I think that many of our qualitative models are a touch too risk adverse.

Only my opinion,

Zephyr

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

An accurate equity model for all stages of an sng, in my opinion, is one of the keys to being succesful in them. Whether this model is based on qualitative experience,I think what you are trying to say here:[ QUOTE ]
I feel my money can go in in a better spot. Simple as that.

[/ QUOTE ], or is based on a quantantative model, really doesn't matter, but I think that many of our qualitative models are a touch too risk adverse.

Only my opinion,

Zephyr

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree with everything you say here.

Since my "model" was indeed just a vague result of experience, it may also be tinged by the fact that when holding 99, even if I think I'm facing AK, I know I may be buried by TT+, so that may color my opinion unintentionally.

In any case, my experience is that in levels 1-3, it's best to get your chips in with a flop on board, as opposed to preflop (unless you've got AA or KK). That's hand wavy as hell, but I believe it to be true.

eastbay

[zephyr]

I agree with you here. Thanks for a good discussion. I'd love to see the math guys develop an accurate equity model for the beginning phases of an sng just to see how close my instincts are.

I initially proposed this problem to stupidsucker, though, as his amount of 9th and 10th place finishes seemed exceptionally low. I thought that perhaps he was being far too risk averse in the early stages. However, I probably should have chosen a more clear cut example (probably one after the flop) to see where he stood.

Regardless, I think our ensuing conversation was constructive.

Zephyr

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
I initially proposed this problem to stupidsucker, though, as his amount of 9th and 10th place finishes seemed exceptionally low. I thought that perhaps he was being far too risk averse in the early stages. However, I probably should have chosen a more clear cut example (probably one after the flop) to see where he stood.


[/ QUOTE ]

I am up for the challenge. Hit me with one or a few. Id guess chances are I will pass the test. As I mentioned earlier I fold this 99 as well, so its not a good example for the same reasons eastbay states.