How low can your VP$IP be and you still be a winner?

[O Doyle Rules]

I know the answer could vary to this question by limit just because of blind structures, but to anyone who is an extremely tight, aggressive rock would you like to share?

Or if anyone could project win rates hypothetically assuming extremely tight play I would be very interested.

I know there are longterm online players with VP$IP in the 10-11% range. Is it possible to be more than break even given such tight play? It would seem at that point, it would be hard to overcome your automatic loss of money out of the blinds.

Thanks to all who respond.

[Evan]

I would guess that it would be almsot impossible to play too tight to be at least a marginal winner. You can certainly hurt your win rate by playing too tight, but it seems like it would be hard to not win just due to preflop tightness. Obviosuly doing something ridiculous like only playing aces will prevent you from winning long term, but I would think anything reasonable could produce a long term winner assuming competence in other ares of play.

[Michael Davis]

I think it would be easy to win $$ playing in the 10-11% range. But if you have to pay rent you might consider playing more hands.

-Michael

[Reef]

You'd be mucking a lot of profitable hands, for example: JTo on the button after 4 limpers would probably be a muck for a 10% VPIPer.

I think you could be a winning player, but not as much as you could be if you were a 4-7% higher. Plus, if your opponents are competetent, they can easily put you on hands since you only play so few.

[Shillx]

My VP$IP is is the 10-11% range. It is fairly easy to be a winner playing this way, although I'm sure that I am a fluke. You would be amazed how much action I get when I cruize into a pot, even from respectable players who should be aware of my style.

Shill

[Seether]

[ QUOTE ]
JTo on the button after 4 limpers would probably be a muck for a 10% VPIPer.


[/ QUOTE ]

I have a VPIP in the high teens and I muck in this situation....how high is your vpip?

[partygirluk]

"You'd be mucking a lot of profitable hands, for example: JTo on the button after 4 limpers would probably be a muck for a 10% VPIPer."

I have a VPIP of 23 and that is an automuch for me. What am I missing?

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JTo on the button after 4 limpers would probably be a muck for a 10% VPIPer.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



I have a VPIP in the high teens and I muck in this situation....how high is your vpip?

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah, I'm around 17, and this is a muck, are you sure you don't mean JTs?

[illunious]

A couple weeks ago I tried to use PT to figure out a possible winrate for playing a tight tight group of hands. I saved my calculations, but I don't remember what the exact hands I selected were... something like:

AA, AKs, AKo, AQs, AQo, AJs, ATs, KK, KQs, KQo, KJs, QQ, QJs, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77 (and free flops). This is 18 hands, and these are the only hands I'd VPIP with, so a VPIP probably less than 8% considering I don't VPIP 100% even with these.

29,517 hand sample (.5/1, winrate of 4.95 over the 30k hand sample)

From my selected group (18 hands):
1,846 times not a blind, 0.99 BB/Hand +1827
315 times BB, 0.97 BB/Hand +305
283 times SB, 0.96 BB/Hand +271
+2,403 BB


Everything else:
20,507 time not a blind, 0 BB/Hand ---
2,961 times SB, -.25 BB/Hand (all folded) -740
169 times put money in BB, -.5 BB/Hand (all folded) -84
3,157 free flop BB, -.22 BB/Hand -694
-1,518 BB


Rusults:
2,403-1,518=
+885 BB
=2.99 BB/100
2444/29517

Some of my numbers didn't match up perfectly when I was done, but I think it is close enough.

[bicyclekick]

I have a vpip of about 17.5 and I'd call this hand almost every time.

why wouldn't you? You've got the button for goodness sake. I bet even tommy angelo is playing this hand.

[surfdoc]

I am curious. Could you filter out this hand from the button and show us a win rate? This hand sucks even with position.

[lacky]

I'm with bic on this one. 115,000 hands overall between 3/6 and 15/30, I've had JTo 154 times from the button and have a win rate of .08 bb/hand.

[radek2166]

[ QUOTE ]
My VP$IP is is the 10-11% range.

[/ QUOTE ]

What limits are you playing?

[sammy_g]

This is based on the stats I had back when I played 2/4. I played 42K hands at that limit.

AA: 3.42 BB/Hand
KK: 2.29 BB/Hand
QQ: 2.04 BB/Hand
BB: -0.15 BB/Hand
SB: -0.09 BB/Hand

To make the math easy, let's see what you average every 221 hands. That's about 22 orbits assuming a 10-handed game. You get AA, KK, and QQ each once on average.

3.42 + 2.29 + 2.04 + 22(-0.15) + 22(0.09) = 2.47 BB /images/graemlins/smile.gif

100/221 * 2.47 ~= 1.12 BB/100

You can be a winning player at the Party 2/4 playing only AA, KK, QQ outside the blinds.

I wonder what your VP$IP would be.

My BB VP$IP = 21.53
My SB VP$IP = 41.17
VP$IP playing only AA, KK, QQ outside the blinds = (3/221) ~= 1.36

(21.53 + 41.17 + 8(1.36)) / 10 ~= 7.36 VP$IP

Pretty tight /images/graemlins/smile.gif You could play even tighter and win since I played relatively loose (maybe too loose) in the blinds. Bottom line is that it is really hard to play too tight in hold'em.

Any obvious flaws in my math?

[The Bear]

Your VP$IP can be much lower than most people would expect. It's almost impossible to play too tight before the flop. Here is an example from my own experience: below are my statistics from my 3/6 days, when I was painfully tight preflop.

Hands: 76,069
VP$IP: 11.07%
BB/100: 2.46

Of course, this is against pretty crappy competition, but whatever. It does a little bit to illustrate the point.

The Bear

[Shillx]

5/10 ring

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Hands: 76,069
VP$IP: 11.07%
BB/100: 2.46

[/ QUOTE ]


Wow!

I suspect the 3/6 competition might be slightly better these days.
But still....Wow!!

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
JTo on the button after 4 limpers would probably be a muck for a 10% VPIPer.


[/ QUOTE ]

I have a VPIP in the high teens and I muck in this situation....how high is your vpip?

[/ QUOTE ]

between 16-18

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
"You'd be mucking a lot of profitable hands, for example: JTo on the button after 4 limpers would probably be a muck for a 10% VPIPer."

I have a VPIP of 23 and that is an automuch for me. What am I missing?

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe I should have made the hand 9Ts. But in either case, are we talking about players who multi table 1/2? That's what I do.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
AA: 3.42 BB/Hand
KK: 2.29 BB/Hand
QQ: 2.04 BB/Hand
BB: -0.15 BB/Hand
SB: -0.09 BB/Hand

3.42 + 2.29 + 2.04 + 22(-0.15) + 22(0.09) = 2.47 BB

100/221 * 2.47 ~= 1.12 BB/100

[/ QUOTE ]




I think you ran better than average on your high PP's during this rather short stretch....but your general point is a good one.

This also assumes your opponents continue to play you the same and don't notice that you're folding as much as you are.
I really don't think that is a very bold assumption though.
Many party low-limit players will be completely unaware when you actually do play your first hand (not in the blind) in over an hour....especially since some of those opponents will be new to your table and couldn't have noticed anyway.

[MaGi]

I play six-handed and have about 30 VPIP...i still dont like JT there and thats knowing full well that they have weaker starting requirements.

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a vpip of about 17.5 and I'd call this hand almost every time.

why wouldn't you? You've got the button for goodness sake. I bet even tommy angelo is playing this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

someone agrees with me! Thank baby Jesus

[Michael Davis]

I agree with you, too, but it was a bad example because someone with a 10-11% VP$IP is mucking JTs here. JTo isn't even close to the worst hand they would muck here, unless they're never playing a hand not on the button.

-Michael

[Schneids]

Holy cow I agree with Bicyclekick on something...

Take off the training wheels JTo is an easy play from the button with 4 limpers!

The numbers don't really matter but since I remember reading a person or two mentioning 6-max, here goes... With a database open that includes 195,737 6-max hands (not all that I've played but I don't feel like opening up another DB), I've had JTo 334 times on the button and am +.12BB/hand... this while raising it PF 52.69% of all times I've received it on the button.

[Cerril]

I'm sitting at 17.5-18.5% and this is a call for me

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sitting at 17.5-18.5% and this is a call for me

[/ QUOTE ]

I am once again reminded of why I should trust in my own poker reasoning / instinct and fall back on abc's (and not be scared off into a fold by a few opinions). JTo is a definite call here.

[Cerril]

I consider a limp from LP with JTo a guaranteed move every time, no matter the callers (though an open raise of course).

JTo is a mediocre hand both with a lot and few callers. It doesn't really pick up much value against a lot of callers unless they're likely to be calling with -complete- junk (in which case every better-than-average hand picks up value against a lot of callers). At most tables people are playing the same range of slightly-less-than-optimal cards whether it's 2-way or 10-way (a few more rag-rag suited or connected 10-way just to tag along and get lucky).

This is with good position this hand has some real value if you can get in for one bet (and all that implies). It would probably disappear around the 16% mark though, maybe 15%.

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]

I know there are longterm online players with VP$IP in the 10-11% range. Is it possible to be more than break even given such tight play?

[/ QUOTE ]

You better have a god damn high W$SD% if a player was only going to play this many hands. That and you need to extract the maximum to keep ahead of the times your loosing your blind, rake, etc. Frankly the players your playing against would have to be so unobservant I don't think that this is possible -

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[ghostface]

My VPIP was at 11-12% for 25k hands in PT when I first got it and my W$SD was about 61-62%

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
This is based on the stats I had back when I played 2/4. I played 42K hands at that limit.

AA: 3.42 BB/Hand
KK: 2.29 BB/Hand
QQ: 2.04 BB/Hand
BB: -0.15 BB/Hand
SB: -0.09 BB/Hand

To make the math easy, let's see what you average every 221 hands. That's about 22 orbits assuming a 10-handed game. You get AA, KK, and QQ each once on average.

3.42 + 2.29 + 2.04 + 22(-0.15) + 22(0.09) = 2.47 BB

100/221 * 2.47 ~= 1.12 BB/100

You can be a winning player at the Party 2/4 playing only AA, KK, QQ outside the blinds.

I wonder what your VP$IP would be.

My BB VP$IP = 21.53
My SB VP$IP = 41.17
VP$IP playing only AA, KK, QQ outside the blinds = (3/221) ~= 1.36

(21.53 + 41.17 + 8(1.36)) / 10 ~= 7.36 VP$IP

Pretty tight You could play even tighter and win since I played relatively loose (maybe too loose) in the blinds. Bottom line is that it is really hard to play too tight in hold'em.

Any obvious flaws in my math?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you may have double counted AA/KK/QQ that you got in the blinds.

EDITED to add quote.

[stoxtrader]

This is a tough question because there are so many variables.

Obviously, the better a player plays, particularly out of the blinds, the lower the number will be.

Also, I would posit the number would be 1-2% points lower for the 1/3 blind structure vs the 2/3.

I think a decent spot to start when answering this question is pokertracker data. problem is that win rates for individual hands take so long to converge, then you add in individual hands in and out of the blinds and you would need millions of hands to figure it out.

I guess it would be possible to approach using pokeroom EV data, but that discounts the blind structure issue (or at least averages different structures together).


for an unscientific approach, I would say a very good player could be profitable at the 3/6 with a VPIP of 8% and at the 15/30 at 10%...

[MaxPower]

The discussion of JTo on the button is irrelevant to the orginal question. If it is a winner, it is a tiny winner and if it is a loser, it is a tiny loser.

People are far too focused on VP$IP. More important is aggression and playing well post flop. I don't think anyone who plays that tight pre-flop will ever be an excellent post-flop player. In the long run, that will hurt your win rate.

Even if you are still a winner playing that tight, I still would not recommend it if it lowers your win rate considerably. If you win 2BB/100 at 11% VP$IP and I win 3BB/100 at 18% VP$IP , my bankroll requirements are going to be much lower than yours and I will win considerably more money. Your hourly SD might be a little lower, but who cares.

[sammy_g]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you may have double counted AA/KK/QQ that you got in the blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're right. Also, my sample size is small. I guess my point is that you can play very, very tight and still win against bad players.

I'm surprised no one has programmed a bot to play only AA-TT, AK, and AQs, then continue after the flop with top pair or better. I can't imagine this strategy wouldn't show at least a small profit at the Party 2/4.

[stoxtrader]

I'd be surprised, but not overly so if this strategy showed a profit. it certainly would either A) lose more in the blinds, or b) be extremely difficult to program for the blinds.

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
I am curious. Could you filter out this hand from the button and show us a win rate? This hand sucks even with position.

[/ QUOTE ]

I looked at the last three positions for JTo. The reason for this is that the game doesn't always play 10-handed. Some times people are sitting out or there is an empty seat. In these situations, I believe PT populates the hands from the blinds backwards to the button. You can see this by looking at the number of hands you play from each position on the "Position Stats" tab. You'll generally find that you've been dealt more hands close to the button than on the button itself.

So looking at the last 3 positions, I'm cleary winning with JTo.

-Scott

P.S. I'm playing with a VP$P of just a hair under 20. And I'm beating the games quite handily. And I believe that it would be almost impossible to beat a game like the Party 15-30 game with a VP$P in the 10-11% range.

[semipro]

My VP$IP is in the high teens as well, but w/four pre-flop limpers in front, this should be an easy call situation.

[Ponks]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
JTo on the button after 4 limpers would probably be a muck for a 10% VPIPer.


[/ QUOTE ]

I have a VPIP in the high teens and I muck in this situation....how high is your vpip?

[/ QUOTE ]

My VPIP is under 11.5 and I play JTo on the button =/

Ponks

[MaxPower]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you may have double counted AA/KK/QQ that you got in the blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're right. Also, my sample size is small. I guess my point is that you can play very, very tight and still win against bad players.

I'm surprised no one has programmed a bot to play only AA-TT, AK, and AQs, then continue after the flop with top pair or better. I can't imagine this strategy wouldn't show at least a small profit at the Party 2/4.

[/ QUOTE ]

This strategy would certainly be a big loser. If you never defended the blinds unless you had one of those hands, the amount you would lose in the blinds would far exceed the money you win with these hands.

In fact, I think this might be a worse strategy than the one used by the typical calling station or maniac.

[stoxtrader]

I believe pokertracker assigns position outside of the blinds based on number of seats from the button.

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

[ QUOTE ]
You'd be mucking a lot of profitable hands, for example: JTo on the button after 4 limpers would probably be a muck for a 10% VPIPer.


[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. That's a muck for me and my V$IP is 20%.

[bicyclekick]

From 102,000+ hands of 15/30:

I know the sample size of the amount of times is wayyyyyyyy to small, but this just substantiates others claims as well.

Filtered just JTo from the button:

http://epoxy.mrs.umn.edu/~clarkbj/jtobutton1.jpg

Filtered JTo from the button with at least 5 players taking the flop: (minescule sample size):
http://epoxy.mrs.umn.edu/~clarkbj/jtobutton2.jpg

if I include the CO:
http://epoxy.mrs.umn.edu/~clarkbj/jtobutton3.jpg

[sammy_g]

[ QUOTE ]
This strategy would certainly be a big loser.

[/ QUOTE ]
I just did the math using the PokerRoom EV stats for these hands. I'll spare you the calculations, but your win rate would in the neighborhood -2BB/100. So you're right: it's a losing strategy.

By the way, playing only those hands puts your VP$IP under 4. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[PantherZ]

http://img62.exs.cx/img62/6020/pt6.jpg

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
http://img62.exs.cx/img62/6020/pt6.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

You're winrate is way too high given your stats...which goes to show your sample size is far too minescule. I really doubt that will last as you are giving up wayyy to much pre-flop and compounding that with your weak postflop play (went to sd 29%!?!?) wtf? You should be seeing TONS more showdowns playing only 11% of your hands.

Maybe it's working for you now at 2/4, but with stats like that you're gonna get run over as you move up.

[PantherZ]

Thanks for the input. What isn't shown is my post-flop aggression, which is 2.94. I think that's really the key to being successful with a low VP$IP.

[O Doyle Rules]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
http://img62.exs.cx/img62/6020/pt6.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]
Maybe it's working for you now at 2/4, but with stats like that you're gonna get run over as you move up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would like to hear from anyone at the 15/30 game with a VP$IP of around 11%. I know there are some of you guys out there.

[DaveMEL]

Very interesting thread.

I play 5/10 on PTY - VP$IP 10.94 and win rate of 3.91 BB/100 - small sample at just on 28k hands though.

To be honest, I'm continually amazed what I get called down to the river by - the vast majority of my opponents wouldn't know my playing style from anyone else's (and particularly not those fresh to the table). In fact, I get in trouble when I try to force players out - so that teaches me to always have the goods. I also get into trouble when I slow-play a made-hand on the flop - people will hang around to catch-up - this teaches me to stay aggressive (but not overbet my hands).

So, I'm a fan of tight pre-flop/aggressive post-flop play - it works for me and gets the money online at this level.

Having said that, I am reading with interest the posts advocating loosening up a little as I could be giving too much away. If I was to follow that advice, probably re-introducing hands like J9s late with several limpers would be what I'd do - and always calling small pairs against 3 limpers. I tend to fold AJ (and to some extent AQ) too often too I think - they aren't such trap hands in limit vs pot limit.

Given that I aspire to move up, I also would really like to hear from 15/30 players in the 10-11 VP$IP range.

Cheers, Dave/MEL.

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]

Given that I aspire to move up, I also would really like to hear from 15/30 players in the 10-11 VP$IP range.


[/ QUOTE ]

There aren't more than a couple and certainly nobody that is a big poster cause I've never heard any of them talk about it because most players by the time they get to this level realize that being too tight is now how you get the most money.

If you're content giving up money, be my guest. I'll just score better in the end because of it. Just know that you're just as bad of a player as those slightly loose players, because you're not making the proper adjustments to making the most money.

I'm not saying I'm some great poker player, either. I'm just saying I try to play the best I can and score the best at the end of the big session and I've learned that involves playing more hands than 12%.

Given my postflop skills, my oppinion is that I will score best with about a 17.5% vpip in the 15. I'm sure part of this has to do with the sb.

Do note this, though. When I play the 30/60 on party my VPIP is 13.63, which isn't too far from the 11...it's just that the aggression is cranked up and there isn't a ton of limping and the players are better so you can't play as many hands profitably.

There are players who win more than I with VPIP's way higher than mine...(such as astro, who claims to have a vpip between 22 and 23), but A) they play better postflop than I and B) probably have a different style than I.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I play 5/10 on PTY - VP$IP 10.94 and win rate of 3.91 BB/100 - small sample at just on 28k hands though.

[/ QUOTE ]


There is absolutely no way that this will be sustainable.

4BB/100 isn't likely to continue no matter what your VPIP or post-flop play is like.

You have really been running pretty well here over these 28k hands but there's just no way that it can continue....particularly with such a low VPIP.

It IS a nice start though...and i AM jealous.

[Cerril]

That's pretty amazing. I think you're right though, over 28k hands a VP$IP that low and WR that high implies you're waiting for great hands and being extremely aggro with them. This is probably one of those cases where 28k hands could easily have you at a huge minus or huge plus depending on whether those few hands catch/hold up, or if they get beaten.

[fearme]

17.78 mine

[fearme]

and it isnt that great a hand

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
u can be dominated and it isnt that great a hand

[/ QUOTE ]

While both are true, that doesn't mean it's not profitable to play. I'm pretty sure it's profitable.

[DaveMEL]

I'm sure you boys are right - I've been on a good run at 5/10 to date and I acknowledge this. I'm expecting it to fall to closer to 2 over the forward journey towards 100k hands. But yeah, it's a nice start !

Yep, I wait for big cards and bet 'em against 1-3 opponents on flops where I judge that I'm in front - at this level, I win a lot with AK (top pair top kicker), two pair and sneaky trips.

I take the point about adapting to the style of play that gets the money at each different level - I've never played 15/30 online and thus my question. If the wisdom here from those that have is that you need to loosen up to 17 then that's good enough for me as a starting point.

Cheers, Dave/MEL.

[fearme]

go by who limps, if 4 tight players limp it would be terrible to call w/ j10, but if 4 fishies limp its fine,

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
go by who limps, if 4 tight players limp it would be terrible to call w/ j10, but if 4 fishies limp its fine,

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure.

I think this would almost never come up though, as any games wehre this many 'tight' players are playing it will almost surely be raised by one of them.

Otherwise, I pretty much don't play at tables where there are 4 other tight players. That just wouldn't make sense given the table selection. Maybe I'm overexagerating a hair, but the point is usually there aren't going to be 4 tight limpers in any game.