JJ vs. preflop cap on rag board

[Harv72b]

To call down or not to call down? No firm reads on any individual in this hand, but the table in general was playing extremely loose both pre- and post-flop. UTG had sat down 2 hands before, so no read whatsoever on him.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (17.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, MP1 calls, CO folds.

Turn: (10.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

River: (13.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: 15.25 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 15.25 BB, between UTG and Hero.</font>

Does anyone raise the flop here? Fold at any point? Thanks in advance.

[mistrpug]

You absolutely have to raise this flop. Make the people behind you pay 2 bets to see the turn and see how the SB reacts. If you're that scared of an overpair preflop that you're not going to raise your own overpair on the flop, then why did you 3-bet preflop?

If you raise the flop, the rest of the hand plays out completely differently.

[stonecoldnuts]

You have to raise at some point. No question.

[Moyer]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone raise the flop here? Fold at any point?

[/ QUOTE ]

I raise the flop. If I get three bet, I can slow down. I can't see folding this at all with no overcards on the board. UTG may have QQ, KK, or AA, but he may also have AK, AQ, TT, even 99 or 88. There's also a third person in that adds profit to your hand.

[Harv72b]

My thinking on not raising (right or wrong) was that if I raise the flop, UTG will likely call and check to me on the turn regardless of his holdings. If he's got AA or KK (or pairs up with AK), he'll likely check/raise the turn, and then I have to decide whether or not to burn another BB on the call if I'm still holding an overpair. Plus, I didn't want to scare out MP1 if I was holding the best hand...if he cold-called 3 bets PF with a 6, 7, or 2 in his hand, more power to him.

[mistrpug]

The pot is already big on the flop, you need to raise to maximize your chances of winning it. You let two players behind you get good prices on draws to beat you.

Plus you're seeing monsters under the bed if you're that scared of AA or KK. Raise the flop and worry about another UTG raise if/when it comes up.

[Moyer]

Actually, the more I look at it, I think you may want to wait until the turn to raise. Any player behind you w/ 2 overcards(especially when 1 is an ace) should easily call 2 small bets on the flop.

Ehhh, I still raise the flop. You're probably ahead and you shouldn't give any cheap cards, whether they're correct to call or not.

[Harv72b]

Y'all are both saying that I'm probably ahead on this hand, even after UTG capped it preflop? I guess this is less hand-specific than general strategy, but against an unknown I go on the working assumption that no hand that loses to JJ unimproved would cap the betting PF...am I wrong to think that way? Obviously, if I have a read on a player as being particularly LAG then I change my thinking.

Anyway, that was the whole reason I 3-bet PF...I wanted to further discourage someone from calling with AQ or KQ, yes, but I also wanted to see what UTG would do. I assumed that with AK, AQ, or PP under QQ he would just call.

[mistrpug]

[ QUOTE ]
I go on the working assumption that no hand that loses to JJ unimproved would cap the betting PF...am I wrong to think that way?

[/ QUOTE ]

People cap with AK alot, and some people seem to cap every time their initial raise is re-raised.

By the way, your reasoning behind not raising the flop was that you thought you'd get check-raised on the turn. If you think strongly that your behind, why not raise the flop and then check behind on the turn? Get to showdown paying 1.5 BB rather than 2.5.

[Walrus]

Does anyone raise the flop here? yes

Fold at any point? no

I don't think it's seeing monsters, but I would expect to be shown a higher pp at showdown. That said, I still just call down, after raising the flop.

I'm curious to see if there are any arguments for playing it as you did, or folding at some point if you are 3-bet, after raising on the flop.

[Jonny Melon]

I would call the flop and raise the turn to a (non-2) undercard. (Like, oh, the 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif) I don't like raising the flop here. I am surprised no one else has suggested this.

Jon