AKs - Push or Call an UTG Raise

[skirtus]

The only thing Ive seen from UTG was a UTG preflop raise in level 1 with AJs and he called a push from someone holding KK. He sucked out. Hasnt played alot of hands since but has raised when he enters the pot. I think the range of hands he might raise with here are AA-77;AKs-ATs; KQs; AKo-AQo. Its a coinflip if I push. I feel pretty good about my shorthanded play and think a call is less risky. I can call and fold the flop and still have enough chips to play aggressively. But if I win a push, I double up and I am in great shape to make the money. Any thoughts?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed)

MP2 (t325)
CO (t1000)
Hero (t1265)
SB (t790)
BB (t760)
UTG (t1135)
UTG+1 (t665)
MP1 (t2060)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="CC3333">UTG raises to t325</font>, <font color="666666">4 folds</font>, Hero ???

[UMTerp]

Have to push. You want to see all five cards here.

[Sluss]

I injure my shoulder pushing my chips in. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

In all seriousness this is an auto push for me, shut out the blinds get heads up probably with a dominating hand.

[Gramps]

I think it's closer than most people would think - I'd probably fold AKo here against a lot of opponents (though not the one described - one that would probalby be doing this with AQ, AK or a pair). You have plenty of fold equity for the jump to 100/200 (the last "doubling" blind level jump), so you're in a good spot...

...but against your given range of hands, AKs is on average quite a bit better than a coinflip - and UTG may even fold one of the middle pair "coinflip hands" you don't want calling (if he perceives you as being a tight player).

Not great at exact math, but realize that there's more combinations of a hand like AQ than any given pair. So...given your supposed range of hands for UTG...and the fact that you hold an Ace and a King in your hand...the number of combinations for the possible hands of UTG are...

AA - 3
KK - 3
77-QQ = 6 each
AK - 9
AQ - 12
AJs - 7
ATs -7
KQs - 7

So...6 times, your a 4:1 dog. 36 times, you're a coinflip (very slight dog). And 42 times, you're a 2.5:1 or better. I'd guess you're around a 4:3 favorite on average (just under 60%)...but I'm too lazy to do the exact math.

P.S. Not sure what this player's "standard" raise is, but raising it up to 3 1/4 the BB makes me think he doesn't want to get called and have to play on the flop - which makes me doubt even more that he has AA or KK (cause if he did, he'd be more likely to raise a smaller amount) - So given that additional nugget of information, I think you're more like 60% against his (assumed) range of hands.

[Bigwig]

This tournament is well past the deep stack stage. In fact, not a single player has more than 21BB's. It's time to push your edges.

All-in. I don't see any other option at this point that makes sense.