What to do with this flop?

[bball904]

Empire $25 + $2 last night, 52 left, top 40 paid, when this hand was dealt. Sorry for the format, but this is my first hand post and I'm going from memory.

Blinds are 200/400. Hero (T5,106) is BB with 5d 4s.

UTG folds
UTG+1 folds
MP1 (T10,600) limps
MP2 folds
MP3 folds
CO (T12,700) limps
Button folds
SB (T7,200) completes
Hero checks

Pot(T1600)

Flop 5s 4h 2d

SB checks

What do you do with top 2 pair here as the short stack? Do you shove? Do you bet the pot? I have a very tight table image at this point as well. This hand is tormenting me, so any opinions are welcome. I'll post results later.

Thanks!

[Firefly]

You've flopped a monster. Unless someone flopped a set or has A3, you're way, way ahead. You have three options that really depend on reads.

Option 1) Check with the intention to check-raise all in. However, you must be fairly certain that one of the big stacks will take a shot at this pot, you do not want to give a free card.
Option 2) Bet half the pot. This is the fairly straight forward proposition. If called, I would push on any turn card (except perhaps a 3).
Option 3) All in. You can put all the chips in the middle and hope someone calls. The plus side is you get you're money in whe you're undoubtably ahead, the bad thing is that not many hands are going to call an overbet like that on a raggish flop.

Personally. I like number 1. Option 2 is a surefire way to probally win the pot but because you have a tight image it will probally only be a small pot unless someone has something like 66-99. The check raise, comits one of the big stacks to the hand and they may call with a hand like A9 or A4, of which you are way ahead of. so, in my opinion, Check, with the intention to raise is the way to go.

[kalooki45]

I think I'd shove it in...a 6 or 3 on the turn wld be disastrous. A/K/Q (x) are waiting in the wings to pair...
*eternal pessimist here... /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[woodguy]

If MP or CO had been aggressive in betting I would check/raise all in.

If the table was very passive, I'd probably make a pot sized bet wanting to take it down right there.

You cannot always count on a LP bet on the flop in an unraised pot, so unless MP or CO can be counted on for a bet, I'd probably lead out.

If I get flat called I probably push on any non scare card on the turn.

If I get raised on my flop bet, I probably fold as any overpair probably raises PF so I'm looking at a set or a straight.

If you don't want to wager your tourney on this hand after getting called on the flop, then just check/fold.

If you plan on checking and calling any bet on the turn, its best to get your chips in there first to get the opportunity to win the pot right there.

Regards,
Woodguy

[MLG]

you know he has 2 pair here right.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
If I get raised on my flop bet, I probably fold as any overpair probably raises PF so I'm looking at a set or a straight.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that's a little weak, 66-JJ can limp PF and raise a flop bet here, I'm just paranoid of going broke in these situations.

Re-thinking I'd actually welcome a raise as its probably not the straight, who is probably flat calling.

A set raises a flop bet here though...hmm. probably have to re-pop any flop raise to see what they have, but if anyone raises my flop bet, my next raise is all in.

Can you avoid going broke to a set in this circumstance?

(that's what you were refering to correct?)

Regards,
Woodguy

[bball904]

I made a pot sized bet (T1600) and got called by MP. The turn was Ac making the board 5 4 2 A.

Now is shoving my remaining T2700 into T4800 pot the right move?

Edit: From my read on MP, I expect him to have a pocket pair and since he didn't raise PF, it's probably not AA.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you avoid going broke to a set in this circumstance?


[/ QUOTE ]

no. if he has a set, I'm praying for him to slowplay and see a 3 peel off on the turn so I can fold with a clear conscience.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
From my read on MP, I expect him to have a pocket pair and since he didn't raise PF, it's probably not AA.


[/ QUOTE ]

After MLG made me think about my comments, I really think an overpair raises your flop bet.

So any hand that you are ahead of here probably raises your flop bet.

With the A coming off, most hands that smooth call are ahead, or were ahead to begin with (flopped set or straight)

Hands you are ahead of: 66-KK
Hands you are behind :AA,22-55, X3, which are the hands which would smooth call the flop

The only other hands I can think of that *might* limp PF and smooth call that flop are A2,A4,A5, but now your behind them too.

I think at this point the only way you win by pushing all your chips in is by a set laying down thinking you have the straight (unlikely since if you had the straight you probably check here).

A very long winded way of saying check/fold.

Who knows, maybe a made straight checks behind getting greedy and MLG's luckbox drops a 4 or 5 on your head.

I like the flop play, often you'll take that pot down, but I really can't see you being ahead on the turn of any hand that smooth calls the flop.

Then again I ususally get these things wrong /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Regards,
Woodguy

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm praying for him to slowplay and see a 3 peel off on the turn so I can fold with a clear conscience.


[/ QUOTE ]

How clear is your conscience with an A?

Regards,
Woodguy

[bball904]

Thanks! That makes a lot of sense. I check/called the turn (horrible, I know) and lost to 33. My only remaining question is do you think 33 lays down on the flop if it was an all-in bet? He had me covered by about 5k, so I think he probably would have called, but I wouldn't have felt so bad about calling off my bleeding stack if I would have lost it that way.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
My only remaining question is do you think 33 lays down on the flop if it was an all-in bet?


[/ QUOTE ]

Probably, but that would be a massive overbet with no information.
If he was a loose big stack, he might called with a low pair and OESD with 2 to come, but it would be wrong.
You'd feel pretty dumb if you pushed all in on this flop and were called by a set or straight.

Regards,
Woodguy