Late Stage question

[mciz]

i know a lot of people ask about getting too many 4ths here but I think my question is a little different. i see that many times when there are 4 or 5 people left with blinds more than 50/100 it turns into a waiting game. Because of my tight play I am usually the one shortstacked and I find it very hard to get out of this situation. when i have 600 chips and the other have 2000, 2400 and 3000 or something i usually end up not doing well. if i miss a few blinds and double up after even that is not enough most of the time because i still end up being shortstacked at the table. i try to play really agressive and get myself out of this situation taking advantage of this waiting game the others are playing, but it seems like my 2nd or 3rd try at stealing always ends up in disaster. can i get some specific advice to which forum link I should read, or what I should do. Perhaps even what hands I should play at a point like this. This is the one part of my game that has been frustrating and you experienced forum members might be my only way out. thanks . this is my second post so take it easy on me

[skirtus]

I think from 5-6 handed through the bubble is probably the toughest part of the SnG. Its the most fun too. Make sure you are not bleeding chips before this stage of the SnG. I would estimate my stack size is between 700-1000 when I reach shorthanded play. I dont think you can get clear cut answers on how to play aggressively. Its too dependent on a number of factors. Experience is the key. Here are a few suggestions.

1. Post hand histories of shorthanded play. Post log of 6 handed through bubble only. The better players can point you in some good general direction.

2. Read posts. Search Archives of ICM and Push EV posts. I found them very helpful.

3. Get Pokerstove or some other poker simulation software. Run your own calcs. See which hands show +EV pushing from SB, and Button against tight and loose blinds. This will give you some good fundamental understanding of stealing blinds.

[skirtus]

I couldnt find the link. I copy and paste good posts into a word doc and save to a folder. Here is one that was very helpful for me. I forget whose post this was but I refer to this doc alot.

When you're in the SB, and you have X BB for your stack, your shove EV w/ any given hand is easy to calculate if you know the range of hands your opponent will call with.
X= your stack size (in terms of BB, assume the BB has an equal stack or has you covered. If you have the BB covered, X = the size of the BB's stack)
C = Percent of the time you are called
W = Percent of the time you win when you're called (use poker stove to figure this out)

Your EV is then:
(1-C)1.5 + WC(X+.5) - C(1-W)(X-.5)
translated this is:
1-C = % of the time you are steal the blinds
1.5 = the amount you win when you steal the blinds

WC = the percent of time you are called and win
X+.5 = the amount you win when you are called and win

C(1-W) = the percent of time you are called and lose
X-.5 = the amount you lose when you are called and lose

This formula simplifies to:

SHOVE EV = 1.5 - C + CX (2W-1)
X= stack size
C = % of time you are called
W = % of time you win when you are called

Example: You have 32o in the SB, and your opponent will call you with 22+, 54+, 86+, T7+, J6+ Q2+ (the loose range of hands in MJ's article).

According to poker stove, 32o wins 31% of the time against this range of hands, therefore W=.31

This range of hands accounts for 64% of all hands (13 pocket pairs x 6 combinations)+ (48 non pair hands * 16 combinations) = 78+768 = 846 combinations.
846 / 1326 = .64
Note that 1326 = total # of combinations of hands.
C=.64

Let's say your stack size is 10x BB.
We now have X=10
C=.64
W=.31

SHOVE EV = 1.5 - C + CX (2W-1)
Shove EV w/ 32o and 10x BB = 1.5 - .64 + (.64)(10)(.62-1)
Shove EV w/ 32o and 10x BB = -1.572 x BB

[UMTerp]

I think you're probably playing a little too tight in Levels 4-5 if you're really that shortstacked so often. You should generally be a little shorter than average, but not to that extreme. You're probably missing out on a few steal opportunities in those levels (i.e. zephyr's post from the other day). The one thing I really try to do at the 75-150 and 100-200 levels is play my opponent's stacks rather than play my own cards (unless I pick up TT+, AK obviously). Say you're playing 5-handed and the stacks are

SEAT 1 - 2000 chips
SEAT 2 - 6600 chips
SEAT 3 - 1100 chips (YOU)
SEAT 4 - 1800 chips
SEAT 5 - 2000 chips

and you're at the 100-200 level. Now you're in a little dilemma - if the blinds get to you one more time, you're really shortstacked, and bound to be called with anything. So you're looking to steal ASAP. I think too many players wait to see a baby ace (which isn't the best stealing hand in the world anyway) or something similar before they push in. You have to get inside your opponents' heads to play this level properly. What are they thinking? Everyone but Seat 2 is trying to slide into the money here. They don't want a confrontation now. Maybe even less so than you, because they feel semi-comfotable with their chip positions. So what you do is, as soon as the big stack folds his hand and you can get first in - push. Doesn't matter if it's 23o or T4o or 95s or JJ or whatever. All you want is those 300 chips out there, and you're going to get them a ridiculously high precentage of the time. (As a side note, I'll also raise any two if I'm the big stack and I can be first in unless the smallest stack is in the big blind). Cards don't matter at this stage of the tournament - position and chip count do. I don't think enough people realize this. Steal two or three times IN THE RIGHT SPOT (not when the big stack is behind you - he's bound to call) and you're right back in the mix. I'd much rather push with 24o with the big stack out of the hand than K8s or something with him still to act.

I rambled a little bit there, but hopefully it makes some sense. Playing your opponents' stacks is the single most important skill to have to being a winning SNG player in my opinion.

[mciz]

yeah i understand what you are saying and thanks to both of you for the advice. i think i agree that the mood of the other players and the kind of player they are at this stage is the most critical, unlike early stages the best hand doesnt seem to matter as much here. i would like to hear what some other regulars opinions on this is though because i see that most people here talk about SNGs as a very formulated game even during the late stages.

[Scuba Chuck]

"The one thing I really try to do at the 75-150 and 100-200 levels is play my opponent's stacks rather than play my own cards" - UMTerp

UMTerp, thanks for the advice. Great suggestion. I had never thought of it that way. I'm getting tired of finishing 3rd and 4th all the time.

Question on steals.

Is there a point where there's too many steals? And is there a change of attitude on when to slow down the steals (assuming ur not ITM) based on the amount of chips collected? i.e. being middle chip size.

[Sluss]

It depends, just a few thoughts:

Pay attention to other stacks and try to figure what they would call you with. If there is a guy in the BB who you could see calling with A baby or Q10 you don't want to be going crazy after his blind with a sooooted connector. If you can find a tighter player who you think would only call with a premium hand raise him more liberally.

Be careful not to steal too often off of the same guy however. You don't want a spite call when you opened up with crap. But, you may want one when you have a monster.

When you are shortstacked near the bubble (less than 10x the big blind) make your steals off of who needs to fold. You don't want to push into the Big Stacks BB when he could easily call you. You want to push into someone who you can cripple if they call. Most people on the bubble are just trying to make money. Use this attitude to your advantage.

Finally, remember "Sometimes the man has a hand." In other words sometimes you raise the right guy the right amount and he wakes up with AA. Don't let it bother you.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

Question on steals.

Is there a point where there's too many steals? And is there a change of attitude on when to slow down the steals (assuming ur not ITM) based on the amount of chips collected? i.e. being middle chip size.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes and no. The question isn't "is this too many steals" but rather "what will my opponent be willing to call with here" - based on your image as a tight or loose player, and his inherent tendencies.

If you've moved in 3 of the last 4 hands, a player who might normally call with AQ or better might think you're pushing any two cards and might call with KT or worse.

So, you should tie the likelihood of being called to your image. This works both ways: if you've been stealing a lot, and you catch AA, it may be better to push again, with the expectation that someone is fed up and will call you with KQs or something.

eastbay