When is 2 backdoor draws enough?

[tolbiny]

10-20 game tonight.
Victor you should'a-a been there, real nice game.

Anyway, some but not to much aggression preflop, lots of people going to far with their hands, not to much postflop raising without 2pair, ect. A nice game.

I got 45s in the SB and its raised once with three callers and the BB has just sat down and is coming along. I call and we see a rainbow flop of
3 8 T with one of my suit.
Checked to the preflop raiser who bets and the three callers do their thang and its on me with
16-1 and 2 backdoor draws, neither of them to the nuts.
i called.
am I nuts?

[Subfallen]

I'll take a stab at this one. But ignoring when the turn gives you an inside straight draw, and assuming your made hands always have a happy ending. (Let's pretend these assumptions cancel each other out. :/)

6 times the turn gives you an OESD, giving you 8 outs.
- This comes in: (6/47) * (8/46) = .0222
8 times the turn puts a favorable 4-flush on board.
- This draw hits: (8/47) * (9/46) = .0333
2 times it does both, OESFD.
- The monster draw hits: (2/47) * (15/46) = .0139
So your win probability is .0694. When you win, how much will you win? Well, there are 8BB in the pot, you definitely get at least 2BB more from the PFR, and those calling stations must add up to another 4-8 BB, let's say around 6. So we'll say 16 BB.

Of course, 33 times the turn doesn't help you. The probability of this is .7021. You lose .5 BB here.

And the rest of the time the turn helps...but you miss your draw. 1.000 - .7021 - .0694 = .2285. *Assuming* the turn isn't raised, you lose 1.5 BB here.

EV: (.0694)(16) + (.7021)(-.5) + (.2285)(-1.5) = +.42 BB

So my conclusion is:

Call. And it isn't close.

(J/k, just love saying that.)

Critical commentary?

[William Jockusch]

I think it's a fold. Also I think you should not have raised preflop. Being suited and connected is nice, but the lack of high card strength really hurts.

[Clarkmeister]

Fold preflop.

I'd fold the flop. I'd be more inclined to call if the preflop raiser was on the button, meaning there was some chance I'd get 2 cards for the price of 1. That looks like a remote possibility at best here.

[Subfallen]

Why did nobody even read my post?

Am I invisible?

Is my cipher status so exaggerated I don't even merit expressions of disdain and contempt?

WTF?

[SinCityGuy]

Easy fold preflop.

Having called, I would give myself 3 outs on the backdoor draws. Only the big blind remains to act after your call, so the chance of getting raised behind isn't substantial. You've got enough in the pot to call a flop bet and see what happens on the turn.

[Gabe]

Check how you're doing this. Even given your optimistic assumptions, I think the EV should only be about +.15BB.

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
Critical commentary?

[/ QUOTE ]

Take a Valium.

[William Jockusch]

Subfallen I think your assumptions are awfully optimistic. First of all, if a 6 comes, you are drawing dead to 79. Also if a 6 comes, then a 7, you lose to anyone with a 9. Overall, if a 6 comes, I think your hand is about as good as a gutshot.

Also, you could make a straight and lose to someone else's backdoor flush draw. Or make a flush and lose.

I also think you are overestimating the number of big bets you are likely to win when your hand is good. Especially since you are out of position, making it hard to maximize value on the river.

Against all of this, if an ace comes, you may get lucky and have everyone check. Or you may have a mildly profitable call of a single bet. You could also catch a pair, and have everone check, then catch another pair or a set. But all of this adds a lot less value than the value which is subtracted by the things that can go wrong.

[Gabe]

sorry was early it's +.28BB

[tolbiny]

" Especially since you are out of position, making it hard to maximize value on the river"

I think your in great position to c/r the preflop raiser on the river.