BB special's 2-pair faces tough turn decision

[topspin]

SB hasn't been at table long, but so far he seems like your regular fish (VP$IP 62.5 PFR 25 over 8 hands, small sample size yadda yadda). CO is unremarkable with equally fishy stats and slightly higher sample size: VP$IP 86, PFR 9.5 over 21 hands.

Paradise Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif. MP posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP (poster) checks, CO calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP folds, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero ...

[b]SB's bet here is representing a 3. Seems a bit odd, since he's probably CR if he really did hit, but if he's really got a 3 then I'm drawing to 4 outs (or worse, if he has 43, just 2 outs) -- definitely not odds to call, and the pot is small. Fold? Call down a potential bluff? Any LAG types out there like raising? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Bodhi]

No, I think you still have 4 outs if he has 43. 43 would give him 3's full of 4's on the turn. If the river is a 4 then you have 4's full Q's and he has 4's full of 3's.

As for whether to call or raise I don't know, but it does make me wonder when someone goes from check-calling to betting out.

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
No, I think you still have 4 outs if he has 43. 43 would give him 3's full of 4's on the turn. If the river is a 4 then you have 4's full Q's and he has 4's full of 3's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I mistyped, I meant 3 outs -- 2 Q's and 1 4. If he has 43 then there's only a single 4 left in the deck, unless internet poker really is rigged /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
As for whether to call or raise I don't know, but it does make me wonder when someone goes from check-calling to betting out.

[/ QUOTE ]

More or less the heart of my dilemma. Small pot and I'm drawing thin against trips, but I'd hate to lose to a bluff or to some nitwit who thinks he's "improved" to two pair.

[Bodhi]

Oh, you can't lose to the nitwit because you know you can't fold.

If he has trips then you have to pay him off. Enough of the time you'll win to make it worthwhile.

[topspin]

Anyone else want to weigh in? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Yads]

I like raising and folding to a three bet, which might hopefully drive button out. If he's passive he might even call and check to you on the river which you can just check through.

[TheHip41]

By raising the turn(2BB), and folding to a raise, you are spending the same amount as calling down, but now, for your 2 BB, you don't even get the chance to spike a boat on the river. I'd call down, he could have anything.

[topspin]

I called it down, river blanked and SB turned over 43 for the boat. A calldown is pretty much standard for me here, but I was curious if anyone else had a better line considering that if I thought I was behind on the turn I'm drawing awfully thin on the river.