coin flip questions

[Josh32]

Hello. This is a somewhat general question inspired by 2 hands in a recent UB MTT with 5+0.50 buy-in.

1st hand:
blinds are 100/200, about 110 out of original 291 left, top 30 paid

I have ~3300 in middle position w/ AK. I open with a raise to 600. Everyone folds to the BB, who reraises all-in w/ ~1600. It's ~1000 to call, which I do. The BB has TT and wins the race.

A similar situation occured later, with ~30 people left. Again, I have about 15XBB and race a short stack (~7XBB) with my AK vs. an underpair. Again, the pair wins the race.

In both situations, I was pretty sure it was a coinflip. My questions are these:

What percentage of your stack are you willing to flip with?
Does this change over the course of the tournament?

In retrospect, I think the first call was a little loose given that it's still early in the tournament. I think the second call was okay because I'm trying to accumulate chips.

Any comments, criticisms, etc would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

[willperkins]

Concerning the first hand, unless you think he has AA, you should call. You are getting 2.5-1 pot odds. If he has AA you are a big dog, KK about 2.5 to 1, against any other PP it is almost even money.


What percentage of your stack are you willing to flip with?

As for me, there is no set answer. If I have a big stack and I belive it is a coin flip, I really don't look at the percentage of my stack when I call. It would depend on pot odds (I would want 2 to 1 or better)

If I am on a short/medium stack, I want the pot to be heads up when I call. I'm looking to double up.

I guess that means, depending on the situation, I would risk 100% of my stack on a coin flip.

[TheTimeIsUp]

You should hypathetically always push if you think it is 50/50. Wether you are a big stack knockin out people, or a short stack trying to dible up. People that don't do this are usually playing with "scared money" and won't make it far in the tournament. Take risks.

[ZootMurph]

There are several factors you need to take into consideration when you are faced with calling a race.

1) How big is your stack in comparison with other stacks in the tournament and at your table.
2) How much of that stack are you risking?
3) How sure are you this is a race and you aren't dominating AQ, KQ, etc.?
4) Most importantly, how are you feeling? Are you feeling lucky?

In the first hand, you are risking about half your stack, and it is still early in the tournament. You have to call 1000 when the pot is 2300. I don't like to make this call, but you are getting 2.3:1 for an 11:10 draw, so you really have to.

In the 2nd hand, I don't know what the pot odds you were getting were, but it is hard to imagine they were worse that even money. However, here if you call you are jeopardizing putting yourself in a <10BB situation if you lose. Also, I don't know how big your stack is comparatively... I'm guessing you were less than average. If you win, you have ~22 BB, if you lose you have ~8 BB. Is it worth the gamble? To some it is, to others it is not. I'd have to know the circumstances surrounding this hand before saying I'd call or fold. For example, if you raised, then he pushed, I'd call. If he pushed ahead of you, I'd probably fold.