JJ hand

[schwza]

last night's UB $20+2 rebuy. i'm about 40 out of 150. top 60 pay.

i've been stealing a decent amount so i thought there was a chance i was getting played back at by a mediocre hand. no read on villain - he hasn't done anything that made me take notice.

bemis is at seat 0 with 11640.
tvhutch is at seat 1 with 21420.
OhioJoe is at seat 2 with 8645.
jsup is at seat 3 with 7135.
MrKurty is at seat 4 with 15125.
dilked it is at seat 5 with 22480.
PaseoX is at seat 6 with 29340.
HERO is at seat 7 with 28680.
okok is at seat 8 with 16495.
Glork is at seat 9 with 8165.
The button is at seat 2.

everyone antes 75.

i have JJ.

MrKurty posts the small blind of 300.
dilked it posts the big blind of 600.
Pre-flop:
PaseoX folds.
HERO raises to 1800.
okok folds.
Glork folds.
bemis folds.
tvhutch folds.
OhioJoe folds.
jsup folds.
MrKurty re-raises to 6750.
dilked it folds.
HERO re-raises to 21600.
MrKurty goes all-in for 15050. (fyi, he started the hand with 15125)

my thinking: suppose he's playing tight. even if he's playing tight, he'll reraise with AK a very high percentage of the time (i think... does anyone disagree?).

suppose he'll reraise with AA-QQ and AK. There are 16 AK's, and i'm 57%. 18 AA-QQ's, and i'm 19%. so the weighted average is that i'm 37%.

he's not going to fold to my push, so just consider his bet a push. money in the pot = his 15050, my 1800, big blind's 600, 750 in antes = 18,200. i have to call 13,250. thus, i need to have 42.1% to make the call right.

so, if he's playing that tight, i should fold. if you include JJ and TT in his range of hands, it becomes marginally positive chipEV. (i'd be 43.5% to win). obviously if he's going to play back with 77 or AT or some such junk, it helps me a ton.

given that you have very little information about how this guy is playing, what's your action here?

[mntbikr15]

If hes been playing tight I most likely fold to the reraise.

Few things, First of all it screams big pair to me as he is out of position making that raise and has a hand that he will be comfortable betting the flop with. Without such a hand I wouldnt be suprised if he pushes here.

Second Im not sure that this is the spot to risk over half ur stack on a hand that is(from what u say) AT BEST a coin flip, you have a healthy stack and can wait for a better spot.

Another note, u say u had been stealing alot, but a decent tight player prob wouldnt put u on a steal from UTG-1 and try to resteal from the BB.

[tiger7210]

I think this should be a fairly easy fold. If he's been playing fairly tight and repopping someone with about 40% of his stack who raised from UTG, it screams big pair. I think if it was AK he either flat calls, makes a smaller reraise to see if you have a big pair, or more than likely pushes to get you to fold.

It seems like his bet is begging you to call or come back over the top of him.

If you been able to steal blinds with regularity its not worth risking half your stack which would then slow down your blind stealing ability as well as any post flop manueverablity to push people off hands.

[schwza]

i don't have a read on him. my post was just saying IF he's playing very tight, ..., and if not, .... i hadn't noticed him, so he wasn't playing like a maniac, but that's all i know.

and i put zero weight on the fact that he put 1/2 his stack in the middle instead of the whole thing. any half-decent player knows it's the same thing, and i'm not interested in playing guessing games about whether he's playing AK that way to make it look like it's AA, or playing AA that way to make it look like it's AK pretending to be AA.

the question is: against an unknown, will he show up with an overpair rarely enough to make this call +chipEV/cashEV.

[zaxx19]

Wow I think you guys are gonna actually get too the point were you can explain how it is proper to move in with 99 here some day. I can stomach this ev=echips err whutever perhaps early in a tourney but wtf are you doing wanting to get overly involved here with JJ?? Your tourney is going very well. You obviously can steal at the table and have a nice stack too operate with. Where is all this urgency to get involved with marginal hands coming from?? Is it a fear that people playing like this will get so many of the chips you will be hard pressed too win?? Im just not getting why this isnt a painful but easy lay here?? QQ now that would be a real discussion.

[Synth]

Why put so much money into the pot with JJ? Why not wait for a better opportunity where you can play back at someone who you have a read on or wait for a better hand to go up against someone you don't. JJ doesn't look so good against a re-raise unless the player happends to be a LAG that raises with many marginal hands.

You have a nice chip stack and you're in a pretty good position (40 out of 150) to wait for a better opportunity without commiting your intire stack on a hand that could very well be behind or in a coin flip situation.

[willie]

i believe a turbomuck is in order.

you raised ep and the guy who comes over the top clearly isn't worried about that- these people are showing strength and you don't have too much of your stack invested- i think it' s a pretty clear drop

[schwza]

seems like there's a pretty good consensus.... i think i've been going too far with good-but-not-great hands like this, pre- and post-flop. not too surprisingly, he had QQ /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Pat Southern]

[ QUOTE ]
QQ now that would be a real discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the hero has QQ, its a much easier discussion, as everyone would say push. With JJ however, considering the position of where your open raise came from, I can't put him on anything worse than TT+ or AQ+. Because the size of his raise seems like he wants a call, I think its a fold. But would anybody think about a smooth call and play the flop?

[willie]

i don't think calling is an option

if the flop comes rags then you're even more inclined to convince yourself that your overpair is good and get in there. The opponent would have 6k of his stack in and the pot would be around 13k, with 9k left he's going to put it in- possibly even first to act- and then you're left with the decision of whether it's a monkey overplaying AK, or someone who's got you licked.

It puts you in a really hard spot on the flop.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
But would anybody think about a smooth call and play the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is, what do you want to see on the flop? If an A or K flops, it's going to be a tough hand to play. If JJ flops as an overpair to the board, you're still in a tough spot if the raiser has AA-QQ. You're really only hoping to spike a set IMO.

I think the hand is a fold in this case. I'm waiting for a better spot unless the re-raiser is a maniac.

[zaxx19]

Just wait till the Raymer minions arrive later tonight...there will be fireworks on this thread ... it wont end up unanimous believe me.