tournament considerations

[limon]

so i played this hand like a cash game but it was in a tourney...any mistakes?

POT LIMIT holdem, only final table gets paid, 2 tables left i have an average stack.

blinds 400-800, im in BB w/ 4h5h, min raise UTG from crazy guy couple callers i call everyone has about 16k. flop is 3h 6h 9c. i decide to go for a check raise of the crazy guy but it gets checked through. turn is jc, i decide to pick this pot up and bet the pot (6.5k) i get called by crazy guy everyone else folds, at this point he has picked up a club draw im 99% sure of it. river is 8s, i feel i have to bluff here and make a decent bet if i go small hell push in on me, i bet all in and he calls w/ Ac8c...im at the rail wondering if there was a better line to take.

[SossMan]

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at this point he has picked up a club draw im 99% sure of it.

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with reads like that, you don't need help from us mortals.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
at this point he has picked up a club draw im 99% sure of it.

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with reads like that, you don't need help from us mortals.

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Limon is a stud like that, you should know that.

[Che]

I would bet out on that flop, but I think your line is fine - especially if you expect the crazy guy to bet out ~90% of the time whether he hit or not. But, I like the check less and less as the likelihood of the flop being checked around goes up. Only you know how likely you thought a bet from the crazy guy was, obviously.

I would rather call a reraise all-in on the flop when I've basically got a coinflip than bet out on the turn when I have missed (2/3 of the time). If one or more opponents flat call the flop, that's cool, too. I'm pushing any turn card in that case.

If it is checked around, I probably won't get paid on the turn when my flush hits (unless someone has a bigger flush which means I only have two good flush outs), and the free card is likely to help at least one of the three opponents so I'm unlikely to take it down by betting out on the turn.

I'm a big dog when I miss the turn so I might shut down there, but I think betting out is fine, too.

Given the way the flop and turn went down, I think pushing the river will get a fold a high percentage of the time since the opponent has to figure you have a J (or at least a 9) a high % of the time here so the 8 is unlikely to inspire a call against sane opponents.

But against a crazy guy...who knows?

Later,
Che

[limon]

i mean youve proably played against these push push push types before. what will he check the flop and then call a IG bet on the turn with when a nothing card hits? hell check the flop with nothing or a monster, if he has any sort of hand even an unimproved baby PP hes betting, hell even bet w/ ak or aq. when he just calls the turn a monster is out, hed move in. making a baby pair is out as well even hed fold here. a big club draw is a lock IMO, then on the river he called "FOR THE SIZE OF THE POT"...besides i didnt say he had a club draw i said i was sure of it...ive been wrong before, a couple weeks ago i wrongly folded KK preflop...ouch!

[SossMan]

isn't T8 or QT or KQ just as, or more, likely than a club draw...

all i'm saying is 99% is a tremendous read and if you got this guy pegged that good, you don't need to be bluffing the river when you should have a better opp later on.

[phixxx]

Sossman, if you say he shouldn't bet when he's 100% sure he missed a draw, when should he bet?