Super satellites, how do you know when you can fold all hands?

[partygirluk]

Say you are playing in a $3 rebuy on PS. The top 125 qualify and there are 230 left. You have twice the average chip stack. Are you in the AA folding situation yet? Can you safely leave your PC and go down the cinema?

I realise the post is very vague. I am not meaning to single out any particular situation. I wonder if there is any generally agreed rule.

One thing I find useful is to see what the average stack size will be on the bubble. Obviously if you actually get to the bubble with an average stack size you will not be in any trouble. So if I am currently above the average current bubble stazk size then I try to work out how long it will take me to get down to that size, and then see if it is likely we will have reached the bubble by then.

This is, looking at it, a dumb way to think. I should first try and work out when the bubble will be, and then work out what my stack size will be. What is a good formula for this? e.g. if there are x ppl left and y ppl get paid how do I work out how long it will tell to get from x to y?

[DVC Calif]

With 105 players to go until you "money" (or win your qualifier seat), you still have a very long way to go until you can even think about folding AA. With that many people still playing, if you go on auto-fold, the blinds and antes are going to eat you up before you even get close to bubble.

However, if you are looking for some rule of thumb, I guess that a safe time to fold and avoid risk would be when the tables begin playing hand-for-hand. If you have a stack that can outlast 15xBB + antes (10 orbits), then you'll probably end up shortstacked but still winning your seat.

Steve

BTW - What PS tourney is there that awards 125 satellite seats? That seems awfully high, even for a rebuy?

[Bobby Cannoli]

You need to know three things in order to make this judgement, barring situation where you're pretty close anyway:

1 - You need to know if the tourney is fairly predictable in hitting the bubble at a specific time. For example, Stars $1/2/3 cheapies hit the money at 2hours, 32 minutes, plus or minus 3 minutes. They're THAT predictable. If your tourney is fairly predictable, then you can proceed.

2 - If it is that predictable, then figure out what the blind level is at the bubble.

3 - Know what the blinds and antes are at each level.

Now it's fairly simple to figure out what the cost of each orbit is for each level remaining. Calculate this sum, and then you only have one step left. Figuring out haw many orbits per level are played in the tourney. For Stars, 2 orbits per level is a good rule of thumb. Paradise is a bit less, and Party even less (due to the extended hand-for-hand play). Now look at this total, add one more orbit for good measure, and then you should be good.

Bobby

PS - This is really only useful for supersats, and regular tournies where you're fairly short-stacked approaching the bubble, and would rather just cash than to go for it and likely bust before the bubble.