flopping the nuts and folding??

[bigmac366]

i recently read championship omaha by T.J. cloutier and Tom Mcevoy. in the sections on pot limit omaha, they said that in certain situations it is the correct play to fold the nuts on the flop. say you hold(QQxx) and the flop is Q J 2 with 2 diamonds. you have the best possible hand, but if an opponent has a wrap straight draw you are a underdog or even money at best. if another opponent has a flush draw to go with his wrap straight it gets even worse. the book advocates folding. any comments?

[nicky g]

The book is dumb if it really says that. Folding the nut trips in cash PLO can never be right. The time to fold the nuts is when you have a nut straight and it looks like someone else may have it with you and they or someone else has other outs. For example, imagine you have a bare 76 on a 5 8 9 flop with two spades and there is a bet and ar aise before you. Your hand can't improve, is probably shared by someone else and is very unlikely to remain the nuts on the river. The QQ is totally different because your hand cannot be shared by someone else and has a very good chance of improving even if someone does outdraw you.

[Cleveland Guy]

Let's do a little assumption here, just to demonstrate.

Lets assume the Board is Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

If your opponenet has K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Then he would have the 8 Diamonds as outs (J gives you a full house).

He would also have the 3 not Diamond Aces, the 3 Kings, 2 Tens, 2 nines, and 3 Eights.

So he now has 21 Outs 2 Times Over.

This is still a hard fold on the flop, but if you are last to act, and one player has the flush draw, and the other a wrap, and you see a pot sized bet and a pot sized raise, if you are just holding a naked set it might be time to get out.

This is very tricky with top set, with middle or bottom set, it's an easy fold.

[Cleveland Guy]

I don't think it's that dumb, but I think it's rare you would do this.

I was playing in an 8 person PLO game. and maybe I'm weak tight, but I folded 9987 (DS) when the flop game 983 - 2 of one suit that I didn't have any of.

I was in the cutoff - the pot had been raised by a MP, and called by 3 other players, including the BB. I have played with both of them before, and knew they were experienced and winning PLO low limit players.

On the Flop the BB opened for pot (~$12). The MP then re-raised Pot. At this point I was pretty sure I was up against the following (between the 2 of them)

A Nut Flush Draw(probably containing AA), and a good wrap with another high pair (Like QQ). So even though I was ahead on the flop, I didn't want to call that much with my 9s, as I had little change to improve. I knew a raise would be called by the second player at least as I only had about $55 at the table at the time. And I was pretty sure that the BB might call too if he had what I thought he had.

[nicky g]

"He would also have the 3 not Diamond Aces, the 3 Kings, 2 Tens, 2 nines, and 3 Eights.

So he now has 21 Outs 2 Times Over.

This is still a hard fold on the flop, but if you are last to act, and one player has the flush draw, and the other a wrap, and you see a pot sized bet and a pot sized raise, if you are just holding a naked set it might be time to get out."

I'm sorry, this wrong. It is -EV to fold here, even if you are a dog to win the pot. If you get it all-in you;re getting better than 2:1, which is roughly your odds to improve, never mind the fact that you may not have to. Furthermore, how could you ever put people on hands that precisely?

"with middle set it's an easy fold"

Because with a raise and a reraise it looks like someone has top set in addition to the fact that there are big draw out there. If you knew you were up against just draws that didn't block any of your fullhouse outs, folding would be wrong.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
and maybe I'm weak tight, but I folded 9987 (DS) when the flop game 983 - 2 of one suit that I didn't have any of.


[/ QUOTE ]you are weak tight

[nicky g]

This is a terrible fold. Here is your nightmare scenario:

Twodimes (http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=o&b=9d+8d+3c&d=&h=9s+9h+8s+7h%0D%0Aad+ac+2d+4c% 0D%0Aqs+ts+jc+tc%0D%0A)

You still have by far the most equity. If the BB calls, all the better - most of the draws are already contested between the other two, so his money simply gives you better pot odds.

[LA_Price]

folding top set on a QJ2 board or in your 9987 example is just plain wrong. In your example you're getting 2:1 which just happens to be the chance that you'll fill up by the river in two cards(well a little less since you have one of your 8's). Oh and did i mention you have the best hand! Take a look at the ev on your nightmare scenario

pokenum -o 9c 9s 8h 7h - as ad 6d 2s - 7d td js qs -- 9d 8d 3c
Omaha Hi: 666 enumerated boards containing 3c 9d 8d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 9c 8h 7h 253 37.99 413 62.01 0 0.00 0.380
As 2s Ad 6d 164 24.62 502 75.38 0 0.00 0.246
Qs Js Td 7d 249 37.39 417 62.61 0 0.00 0.374

This is your absolute worst scenario and you still have the best equity. You can pass in this situation if you like but I for one will happily raise all in.

[nicky g]

Here (http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=o&b=qd+jc+2d&d=&h=qh+qs+5h+6s%0D%0Akh+8d+ts+9s% 0D%0Aad+ac+5d+6c) is your nightmare scenario for this hand. Again, you have the most EV. Heads up against the monster wrap/flush draw, you are a slight dog, but you still can't fold given pot odds.

[Cleveland Guy]

Okay,

I see where my fold is wrong. Thank you for pointing it out, but I guess I was a victom of the same book.

[J_V]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding the nut trips in cash PLO can never be right.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure you are wrong about this.

[Beavis68]

I don't remember TJ talking about folding trips, I though he was discussing a nut straight that had no outs to improve with a possible flush draw on the board.

With top set you can never be drawing dead.

Still, I think this is a rare occurance. I think the situation arises more in PLO8 where there is a low draw and a flush draw on the board. and you have some straight that can't improve much.

[Bet_to_Nguyen]

I think what ya'll wrote so far works fine for small stacks that you can get in on the flop. Even though the odds look good, there are better situations to get money in if the stacks are deep. I think T.J.'s main point was what will you do if one of them hits the money card on the turn and then you have a fat pot bet to call as the dog with one to come?

[nicky g]

OK, give me an example where it's correct to fold top set which is the current nuts in cash PLO high. The only remotely close situation I can conceive of would be in NLO when someone moves in a massive stack on a heads-up tiny pot and you are sure he would only do this with the monster wrap and flush draw.

[snowden719]

Not exactly the situation you were talking about, but top set can definitely be behind...
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=636627
pokenum -o 9d 9c as 3s - 6c 7c th jh -- 8c 9h 2c
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 8c 2c 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 3s 9c 9d 330 40.24 490 59.76 0 0.00 0.402
7c 6c Jh Th 490 59.76 330 40.24 0 0.00 0.

[nicky g]

Sure, but that's not the same as saying you should fold.

OK I can see an argument for folding if there is a lot of money left to bet heads-up, your opponent raises the pot and you are 100% sure your opponent has the monster wrap and flush draw, and you know he will not pay you any more money if the board pairs. But top set against the monster out draw is pretty rare, and I don;t see how you could ever with confidence put someone squarely on it. And even then I am probably taking off a card and seeing if I can get lots more money in on the turn if the draw doesn't hit and I am now almost certainly favourite. More than heads up and there is no way for you not to be getting the correct odds.

So, anyone apart from SomethingClever ever folded the nut trips on the flop?

[snowden719]

I agree, the situation I described would only be a fold IF you knew opponent for sure had both a monster wrap and flush draw, AND you were playing no limit, seeing as any pot sized bet is giving you 2-1, you will never be in a situation on the flop where you're getting less than a third of the equity in the pot, so yes a fold would be silly here, but it would be theoretically the correct play if you were playing no limit omaha and you knew your opponent had a large wrap and flush draw. As to calling the flop to see the turn, what if the turn brings him a backdoor flush draw also.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=636710
pokenum -o as 3s 9c 9d - 7c 6c jh th -- 9h 8c 2c 3h
Omaha Hi: 40 enumerated boards containing 8c 2c 9h 3h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 3s 9c 9d 14 35.00 26 65.00 0 0.00 0.350
7c 6c Jh Th 26 65.00 14 35.00



In the end, yes one can create hypothetical scenarions in which one would not want to call an all in with top set; but this scenario would likely never happen in real life, or you would be unable to correctly read the situation correctly; so never fold top set on the flop or the turn with no straight or flush possible when playing pot limit.

[svenski]

Very interesting discussion so far. I definately wouldnt fold on the flop. if you are up against a really tough opponent smooth call raises and take it from the turn. However I've seen too many players risking their stack with JJ in this spot that i would hammer the raise button. Once in a while you get called down by top two on the flop and the turn as well, excluding the set because of their holding. Simply said I would have a hard time putting an oppponent on a monster draw here and even in the rare occasion that you are a dog it's not by far as already mentioned.

[Bet_to_Nguyen]

Nicky G, whether or not it is correct to fold depends on how much variance you want in your game. There are definitely better edges if you're against at least two hands with a semi flush and semi str8 board. All of this is considering it's about $150 to you on the button with only $8 invested preflop or thereabouts.

[Bet_to_Nguyen]

Just to add one more post to my record, I've never folded top set on an uncoordinated flop.

[mosch]

Please see Ed Miller's fantastic post, about thin edges (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=holdem&Number=1122424&Foru m=All_Forums&Words=variance&Searchpage=0&Limit=25& Main=1122424&Search=true&where=bodysub&Name=43&dat erange=1&newerval=1&newertype=y&olderval=&oldertyp e=&bodyprev=#Post1122424).

[Bet_to_Nguyen]

Notice that Ed says, "The large majority of you guys will end up doing much better in the long run if you simply IGNORE THE WHOLE THING and make any play if you think it is +EV. Again, this recommendation is only for playing limit poker with a bankroll of several hundred bets."

PL and NL are different.

[tubbyspencer]

[ QUOTE ]
With top set you can never be drawing dead.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not exactly true. But close enough.

[snowden719]

you guys are absolute morons, of course you can be drawing dead with top set, happens all the time. This happened to me yesterday playing omaha, and I assume people see this all the time.


http://twodimes.net/h/?z=640019
pokenum -o as ah 8s 9s - kh kc ac tc - qh qd 2c 3c - jh jd 2d 3d - 7h 7d 7c 9d - 6h 6d 6c 6s - 9c qs ts td - 9h th 8h 8c - 5h 5d 4c 4s - 5c 5s 4h 4d - 2h 3h 2s 3s -- qc js 7s
Omaha Hi: 10 enumerated boards containing Js 7s Qc
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 9s 8s Ah 2 20.00 8 80.00 0 0.00 0.200
Ac Kc Tc Kh 3 30.00 6 60.00 1 10.00 0.350
3c 2c Qd Qh 0 0.00 10 100.00 0 0.00 0.000
Jd 3d 2d Jh 4 40.00 6 60.00 0 0.00 0.400
7c 9d 7d 7h 0 0.00 10 100.00 0 0.00 0.000
6s 6c 6d 6h 0 0.00 10 100.00 0 0.00 0.000
Qs Ts 9c Td 0 0.00 9 90.00 1 10.00 0.050
8c Th 9h 8h 0 0.00 10 100.00 0 0.00 0.000
4s 4c 5d 5h 0 0.00 10 100.00 0 0.00 0.000
5s 5c 4d 4h 0 0.00 10 100.00 0 0.00 0.000
3s 2s 3h 2h 0 0.00 10 100.00 0 0.00 0.000

[nicky g]

Lol. Yes, frequently, and easy to read when it happens too.

[knifeandfork]

helmuth talks about an actual hand in BBLD where the player with top set on the turn was drawing completely dead with the current nuts (5 or 6 handed i dont remember for sure). for what its worth i suppose this comes up a decent amount on say party poker too. although of course more interesting than something to actually concern yourself about in a gmae situation, but that one time ...... the sky is falling
jason

[ryzyng star]

<font color="red"> </font> RARE, but not dumb.....(well, depending on the player) each situation requires individual action...so whos to say fer sure.. <font color="red"> </font>

[nicky g]

Me. I say for sure. Folding top set which is the current nuts on the flop is dumb.

[Big Dave D]

Nicky, let this one lie. If people want to pass top set on the flop, let them. This is starting to remind me of my infamous pass A2 in plo8b thread :-)

gl

Dave D

Poker Blog! (http://www.internetpokerpro.com)

[gergery]

As a general rule its bad advice. There are certain situations you can construct where a fold would be correct –specifically, where good tight players bets with middle set, another player raises hard with a monster wrap. Then the monster wrap can be a big favorite to you since some of your outs are gone and the pot/implied odds are bad enough for you.

But in general your opponents range of hands will be wide enough and the pot/implied odds good enough that it will make sense to at least call and hope for a blank turn, when you will be a favorite over the wrap.

--Greg