A river that made me go hmmmmm....

[lil feller]

To preface this hand, the beat I took was aweful, and I'm not looking for sympathy. What I am looking for is some discussion on the river decision, and ones like it that come up frequently. The flop and turn might also be worth of some conversation, it was an interesting hand in general. Here goes...

The scene:

B&M 10/20 game, 9 handed. I'm in the 9 seat. The 6 seat is an absolute any two will do loose semi-agg sucker. The 7 seat is a heavy drinker (but who can play well when he wants too) LAG. The 8 seat is the 7's girlfriend, and she's just plain aweful loose/passive most of the time. The button is in the 4 seat.

Seat 6 is BB, seat 7 live straddles. Seat 8 3 bets and I cap w/ T /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif. All fold to the BB who calls, 7 and 8 seat both call, 4 to the flop for 4 bets each.

Flop:
T /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Gulp!!!

BB bets out, straddlers folds. UTG (8 seat) calls and so do I. Given my knowledge of both of their play, at this point I am assuming that they both have a spade in their hand, and probably don't have a pair.

Turn is the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB bets out, UTG raises and I 3 bet (I now put her on AK or AQ with the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif). BB calls (hmmmm) and so does UTG

River is 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif

That couldn't have hurt me, right? BB bets out...hmmmmm. UTG folds AK w/ A /images/graemlins/spade.gif face up (I say to myself, self, good read) and I get to thinking. He may have flopped a flush, a straight, or he might have been helped by the river.

I call and he shows me 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif for a rivered straight, and I still have the mark from my jaw hitting the table.

Here's my question. I found myself extremely tempted to fold to this river bet for a variety of reasons.

1. I saw the Ace of spades get mucked, what else could he have been calling with?

2. He had to know that I had a BIG hand (he probably put me on AA until she mucked face up) and knew I was going to call.

Both of these were running through my mind and I almost folded, and then I looked at the pot and resigned to sacrifice another 20 bucks. Does anybody lay down in this spot, or is this one of those calls you just have to make?

[Noo Yawk]

2 points.

1. The beat you took on this hand was far from awful.

2. You describe seat 6 (BB) as a "semi-loose aggro any two will do sucker". I lost count of the pot at a zillion bets.
Why on earth is folding a set on the river for one bet even crossing your mind?

[lil feller]

The beat I took from him was aweful. I forgot to mention that the 7 of diamonds was exposed after the deal in a folded hand, and he can't win with the 7 of spades, so he's got a 2 outer. She's drawing live to every spade, obviously, and I'm only 75% or so after the turn card.

The reason for the discussion is this. All of us know that making a crying call on the river is based on the relation between the size of the pot, and the percent chance we think we are beat. In this particular spot, given the action earlier in the hand, it seemed impossible for even this player to bluff at me. I'm not particulary asking about my hand specifically, but more the theory behind the decision in general. Can you ever be sure enough in a pot this big? I wonder if Tommy folds the river, given the same information?

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
I wonder if Tommy folds the river, given the same information?

[/ QUOTE ]

So in your mind, finding one person that suggests folding would justify the play?

I agree with Noo Yawk. Far from an awful beat. Easy call. That you think it's close is not a good sign.


Good luck.
Eric

[James282]

Tommy might find a fold here, but he also might find a couple guys snickering in the noodle bar a few hours later about how they completely missed with their KsJd but bought a 40 bb pot on the river with 1 bet.
-James

[lil feller]

Never mind, I'm sorry I posted it. This guys chance to win this pot was next to zero, that was my only point. I'm not looking for justification in this hand, or in any other I post for that matter. The fact of the matter is that Tommy has proven several times over that he is capable of sticking with his reads, and folding when he KNOWS he is beat, obviously I don't have that ability, I called. I was just wondering if there is a time when you are so sure you're beat that a fold on this kind of river is correct. Obviously I'm barking up the wrong tree.

And, as a side not, if a two outer isn't a bad beat, what is? I expected to lose if another spade came up, but not to him. Its the same as having somebody call 2 cold on the turn to nail a pocket pair, is that not a bad beat either?

[random]

It doesn't matter what his chances of winning were. Your chances of losing were far greater with the higher spade still in the hand. He had three outs, by the way. He also could have thought all spade, two pair, straight, and trip outs were good. I'll repeat what was said before: "That beat was far from awful." You'd feel better if the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif hit his flush? You still lose the pot...

[Noo Yawk]

A few points more:

1. You have a vulnerable hand. Assuming your ahead, Compare the pot size to the number of outs drawing against you. It doesn't matter it the guy with 3 outs (his 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif gives him a srt flush) or the guy with the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif beats you with his 7 outs. If you were heads up with the bad player, he still has 11 outs against you. The only reason he hit a 3 outer was because the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif was still drawing. Outs are outs. It doesn't matter which one beat you.

2. The river has like 20 BB's in it when it gets to you. Your description of the guy is that he is aggro and a POS player. He'll never bluff more than 5% of the time here? Even better, more straight forward players take a stab here more than 5%. You need to re-asess your description of the player if you're that sure.

3. Posting this hand and understanding the criticism your recieving may be the best thing that ever happened to you.

4. Tommy has a lot more experience than you. I don't know if he'd call or not. I do know he wouldn't care one iota what happened after he made his play.

[James282]

What does it matter who you lose to?
-James

[lil feller]

This guy is a regular player in my game and he knew for certain that none of the other outs were good. I didn't show my hand, and when I asked him what he thought I had, he said AA...he knew exactly what he was drawing to.

And where do you come up with 3 outs, I said earlier in the thread that the 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif was exposed as it was being folded Preflop, or did you miss that?

[lil feller]

This guy is a regular player in my game and he knew for certain that none of the other outs were good. I didn't show my hand, and when I asked him what he thought I had, he said AA...he knew exactly what he was drawing to.

And where do you come up with 3 outs, I said earlier in the thread that the 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif was exposed as it was being folded Preflop, or did you miss that?

[random]

7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/club.gif

[random]

Also, if he thought you had AA then indeed his two pair/trips/straight outs were good... and flush depending on whether or not he thought you had a spade. If he thought you had AA, then he definitely did not know what he was drawing to.

[lil feller]

I want to make sure that anybody that read this thread understands that in no way am I trying to compare myself to Tommy, not after a million hands could I even do that.

Secondly, the points you make are understood, and I was fully aware that my hand was vulnerable, hence waiting until the turn to get aggressive when my opp odds to hit got knocked way down.

Third I appreciate the feedback and am now regretting that I ever included the "it was an aweful beat" line in my original post. I know that they are both coming at me with a variety of outs, and I knew during the hand that it was quite possible that I was behind from the flop and I may have been the one drawing (but given the action, that was not my impression, the BB is prone to c/r with made hands and bet with draws). I guess the beat seemed bad because of how it happend, but that really was not the focus of the post. I guess the only reason that it stuck out is because I would expect even a bad player to fold his draw on the turn, and I was really shocked when I saw his hand. I was expecting to see something like K /images/graemlins/spade.gifand some random 8. I know that I'm not going to win that pot more than 65 percent of the time, or so without improving.

Finally, the impression I'm getting is that this is one of those spots where you just need to call, unless you have super spidey sense (which I don't). I just thought it presented an interesting decision that can be boiled down to the fundamental "figure out what your opponent wants you to do and then disappoint them" strategy. He wanted me to call, and I didn't disappoint him.

On another note, anybody have anything to say about the flop or turn play?

[lil feller]

I missed the straight flush out, my bad, sorry.

[Tommy Angelo]

"I don't know if he'd call or not."

I don't either. But I do know I would not have raised the turn.

[Tommy Angelo]

"The fact of the matter is that Tommy has proven several times over that he is capable of sticking with his reads, and folding when he KNOWS he is beat, obviously I don't have that ability, I called."

I don't see it that way. Nowhere in your initial post did you say that you were sure you were beat. You said you were suprised to see the hand that beat you, and surprise is the exact opposite response you would have had, had you been sure you were beat, so my read is that you were not sure you were beat, which means you had a clear call. Good call.

Tommy

[pheasant tail (no 18)]

When I'm driving home I try to remember all the attrocious plays that I made--hoping to reduce the number by 1 for my next session. My mental RAM is always full long before I get to a crying call to close the action in a 20 bet pot w/ a set against a player like you describe (PM me who it was). Hell, in that game he could have put you on KK w/ Ks and thought it was a value bet w/ 2 pair. You've seen it a million times. Who was the player? Could he have played AT that way?

I make at least 10 terrible crying calls a night and four good ones. It is hard to distinguish between them because even the good ones fail most often. One of these every 2-weeks that is a winner pays for all the good ones that you make that fail--though not the bad ones (I make). I think this is one of the good ones.

Simply put, it is really very difficult to put a percentage on surety. It's more like Positive, very sure, pretty sure, likely, not likely etc. Can you feel 97% sure but not be positive? Not in my thinking. You can feel pretty sure and not call, see that bettor did have 2 pair and come across as though you KNEW, but isn't this just a case of experience creating a feeling ex post facto?

The level of competition that you describe, and face mandates that you do not give them too much credit. I mention above a distinction between good CCs and bad ones. I regularly put chips in on a bad one and as I release them and start to realize just how bad it is I see them muck and say good call after a terrible bluff. This does not excuse the making of a bad play but it does, for me, illustrate that my reads can be so far off that the size of the pot can at times, especially on a draw heavy board, be all that I really have to go on.

I know that there is more to that and I hope to learn, but it is important, as you know.

His saying that he put you on AA does not mean that he really thought that. Is it possible that he did not think to put you on anything?

Maybe the place to save a bet is on the turn. Noone is likely folding an A K Q or Js (or perhaps a 2s) and as a value bet it might not be worth it.

Game sounds good. I'm sure you got your 20 back /images/graemlins/smirk.gif. Wish I was there.

PT

BTW, Did you try to contain your bitterness when you congratulated him on his "nice catch"? One of my favorite things about playing w/you. MAybe in 2005 you will just go ahead and add "Biatch" /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[JasonP530]

Played very well, and got a little unlucky. I think the turn raise was appropriate. Dont forget that even if youre behind, youre getting 2-1 on your money to fill and the pot is big and youre trying to protect it. The last poster(i forget his name) made an excellent point. Youre only trying to win this pot 5% of the time. Most of the time youre going to shake your head and wonder why you called, but if 1 time in ten youre right, you made a hugely profitable play. You dont fold in big pots for one bet, not against todays opposition.