Flop Decision

[cdub]

Early stages of a PP $30 NLHE Tourny
8 Handed
Blinds 30/60
I am in the small blind with a medium stack of 1025 and was delt Kd, Qd.
UTG+1 Raised to 100 and was called by UTG+2 and myself. Three saw the flop of (Js, 9d, 2d)
UTG+1 goes all-in for 1445
UTG+2 calls for 1145
Do I call with the second nut flush draw and a gutshot? Obviously I don't think my overcards are good, but I love the position I am in if I win this pot.
Is there any question about calling pre-flop?

[Biff M.]

If you ain't gonna call this, why would you call preflop? Do or die, I would call this and bust out or triple up.

I haven't played the $30 yet, but I guess the players are better and thus easier to put on a hand. Your overcards might very well be live if this was a $10 table, with hands like AdJd and A9 etc. Here then, most likely you're up against hands like 99 for a set and/or an overpair.

How's my thinking? Bad or worse?

[texasrattlers]

How do you raise to 100 w/ BB 60? This may be a Party thing, as I think you have to at least double the BB in Stars.

If this is only a min raise, this is not a bad PF call, depending on your stack size (i.e. if not to the point of all in or nothing). As for the flop decision, I would put one of your opponents on two pair or a set. The other may have something nasty like Ad Jd. If this is the case, your only hope would be to hit the T for a straight and get no diamonds. Or the second player could have an overpair. Then of course you have the flush and straight draws, which is a good bargain for getting 3-1 odds. I would call this at the lower levels I play at (Stars $6 Turbo), as I would expect to have many live outs. But at the higher levels you play at many of your outs may be dead.

[cdub]

You are right, I made a mistake on the blind amounts. The blinds were acually 15/30, so his preflop raise was a little over 3 times the big blind. This is why I didn't think my overcards were good.

[MrMon]

Fold and live to see another day. If someone has a set (holding 99), and the other top pair (say AJ), you've only got a 35% chance of winning. I'd discount the chance of AdXd, but you've got to keep it in mind, as it is a negative. You're only slightly up to 36% on a set of twos and two pair. The more chances I run through the odd calculator, the more that come up in the mid-30s, or worse. Only on the loosest of plays do you get close to 50%. The gutshot doesn't add much to your chances, try replacing the 9d with an 8d to see what I mean.

Yes, you'll be in great shape if you win, but odds are, you're buying into another game. If you fold, you're basically down to 7 players and you still have a decent stack. Someone has you beat here, you aren't shortstacked. Do you really want to call your last chip on a draw? If you think you're good, you can still beat these guys with a stack of 1000 and wait for when you really have the advantage.

Interesting alternative scenario. You're the guy holding the set of 9s. How do you play it from first, second or third position? Might give you some perspective of your current position.

[Superfluous Man]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold and live to see another day. If someone has a set (holding 99), and the other top pair (say AJ), you've only got a 35% chance of winning. I'd discount the chance of AdXd, but you've got to keep it in mind, as it is a negative. You're only slightly up to 36% on a set of twos and two pair. The more chances I run through the odd calculator, the more that come up in the mid-30s, or worse. Only on the loosest of plays do you get close to 50%.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why should he care about getting up to 50% when he's getting something like 2.3:1 on his call? Anything above 30% or so is +ChipEV. That said, this is fairly close, and basically comes down to whether or not you believe someone has Ax of diamonds. If so, fold. If not, call. Given the action (that's a pretty giant overbet, perhaps he's trying to shut out draws), I'm inclined to think that someone has the naked ace of diamonds, perhaps with top pair, and the caller has a set or an overpair. At the Party $30+3, I would probably refuse to believe that someone has the nut diamond draw and call. This is probably a leak.