was trying for a cheap showdown a good strategy?

[jfletcher]

PokerRoom 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

(UTG+1 was a moderately tight player, although I had seen him play A8o from MP. Since he didn't cap my raise, I knew he didn't have AA or KK, so I put him on either 99-JJ or AQ, AJ, KQ, etc.)

Flop: (11.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls.

(Because he was tight, I didn't think he'd be bluffing into a preflop 3-bettor. So I put him on Ax. I chose to raise just to get some more information and maybe save myself a bet on the turn to get a cheap showdown.)

Turn: (7.75 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

River: (7.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

(A classic crying call.)
Final Pot: 9.75 BB

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

Unless he's tricksy you can fold this one on the flop.

[jfletcher]

[ QUOTE ]
Unless he's tricksy you can fold this one on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

If there would have been more players seeing the flop, or if the player in the middle would have called, I might have folded. But since it was heads up and the pot was fairly large, I thought I had to see it. Like I said, I thought preflop he could have had 99-JJ, and I really hadn't seen enough hands from him to be ABSOLUTELY certain he wouldn't bet without an A.

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

Well, given that read your line is OK, but only if you are confident that he would bet into you without an A after you 3-bet preflop.

[shadow29]

I disagree. You have a pair much higher than middle pair, plus two outs to the nuts (poster said he didn't think UTG+1 had AA).

I think this hand is well played.

[afk]

I think I'd rather bet the turn and check the river through.

[afk]

Also, if you can reliably put him on AX, then you should probably fold the flop since you aren't gettting the odds to improve and since he raised preflop he may have a decent ace which he isn't going to lay down.

edit: I apologize for my awkward run on sentence.

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

[ QUOTE ]
a pair much higher than middle pair

[/ QUOTE ]

But more importantly, lower than top pair.

Also, 12.5:1 is not close to the 23:1 shot needed to spike your set. You also can't expect to pick up a whole lot of extra bets even if you do make your set.

I still think this is a fold.

[jfletcher]

I think betting the turn and checking the river would have been the right play. If I was going to call one more big bet either way, that would have given him one more chance to fold if he didn't have the A.

Turns out he had JJ, and he beat me when the J came on the river.