75-150 hand

[Clarkmeister]

Juicy 7 handed 75-150 playing very loose, aggressive preflop and slightly more passive than a normal game postflop, though there are definitely flurrries of activity. I'd like comments on this as I don't like the way I played it.

Loose aggressive fish who thinks he knows how to play limps UTG. 2 folds and a limp from an aggressive player in the CO. Button, a loose aggressive preflop and decidedly loose passive postflop raises. Loose tricky but straightforward (mike l will know what I mean) calls in the SB. I 3-bet with TcTd and everyone calls. 5 to the flop for 15sbs.

Flop: 9s 8c 3h. SB checks, I bet, UTG raises, everyone coldcalls. I call intending to checkraise the turn if I like it. I define "like it" to be any non ace or king that isn't raised by the time it gets back to me. 5 to the turn for 12.5BBs.

Turn: Ad. SB checks, I check, UTG bets. CO folds, Button and SB both call. I call intending to checkraise a river ten, checkcall if UTG bets and the other two fold, and most likely check-fold anything else, though I may call a river bet from the button if the SB folds in between us.

Thoughts?

[bernie]

I dont like it either. It seems something's missing. Not sure what, though.

How about betting out on the turn? If raised, especially by the flop coldcallers, fold. You could easily represent a big A here.

You're not getting odds to see the river for 2 outs. Unless you feel you can make up about 7 bets on the river. You'll likely get 4-6 if you pull of a c/r on the river if the UTG bets out. Folding for 1 bet here doesn't seem right since only the LAG fish is active and you close the action. It feels weak to do this. But the callers probably have something to be calling with along with you not getting the odds for the 2 outer. It really looks like someone likely has an A and they aren't going anywhere.

I think if i'm playing the turn, im betting out.

I'll be curious as to what others have to say.

Tough spot.

b

[nummerfire]

As much as I hate to fold the turn with all that money in the pot I think I would do it (at least on paper). With all the coldcalling and calling going on I think your tens are in the other peoples hands and there is a risk a ten is not an out.

I certainly do not think you have the best hand after that ace shows up.

Kim

[vmacosta]

Crappy turn card...can you have the best hand here more than 10% of the time? In most mid-limit games I play in, you have the best hand less than 10% of the time and thus a C/F is in order. If your hand figures to be best more often, I believe a play at the pot becomes important. Either way, I can't see what a c/c accomplishes since you are basically conceding to any face card on the river (since getting 13-16:1 from the pot, any two face cards will certainly see the river and if they happen to pair, they won't likely fold).

[Monkeyslacks]

I'd try and make my money on the flop here?

You've got 4 guys willing to call with their overcards/gutshots whatever and you're certainly ahead here the majority of the time. There are a lot of turn cards here that might hurt you that aren't an ace or a king and not all of them are coming back raised.

I like the checkraise plan with queens or better as I'd be sufficiently more certain of getting in the cr with the best of it on the turn.

Interesting hand.

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I might have gone for a flop check/raise. Would the button bet if it gets checked around to him on the flop with a hand you beat (ie AQ, etc.)?

On the turn, I think it's probably a fold. Doesn't the button have to have an Ace or a pair that beats you like JJ/QQ here? I mean 99/88 have you beat also, so if he raises with Ax/KQ/KJ any pair above 88, then you only beat the Kx hands and they would probably fold on the turn.

[Paluka]

If you 3 bet the flop the pot would probably be big enough for your turn call to be correct.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
Crappy turn card...can you have the best hand here more than 10% of the time? In most mid-limit games I play in, you have the best hand less than 10% of the time and thus a C/F is in order. If your hand figures to be best more often, I believe a play at the pot becomes important.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post that I want to comment more on later. I'm hitting the road for the day, but for now I just wanted to point out that I don't need to have the best hand more than 10% of the time. Excluding the river for a moment (paying off, catching bluffs, extracting extra bets if I hit a ten, yes I know this is severely oversimplifying), I'm getting 15.5-1 on my 22-1 shot. If my hand is good even ~5% of the time (think of it as a "one outer") then I need to call.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the checkraise plan with queens or better as I'd be sufficiently more certain of getting in the cr with the best of it on the turn.


[/ QUOTE ] This reasoning cuts both ways. The fact that queens or better is more likely to get a good turn card is related to the fact that it is going to end up winning the pot much more often. Which means that it is giving up much more than TT by not jamming the flop. TT is giving up a somewhat profitable flop opportunity for a possibly more profitable turn. KK would be giving up a very profitable flop opporunity, which argues for jamming with it. Also, the fact that TT will less often like the turn card is a good argument for waiting to see what it is before putting in the money, while KK (for example) will like most turn cards, which means the information you gain by waiting to see it is less useful. Which isn't to say that I necessarily would or wouldn't reraise the flop with either hand. I'm just pointing out that the argument you give goes in both directions and can be turned around to argue for checkraising tens on the turn but not queens.

[tripdad]

i would 3-bet the flop here with likely the best hand. since you didn't, i can't see calling the turn bet here.

cheers!

[Robk]

I just wanted to point out that I don't need to have the best hand more than 10% of the time. xcluding the river for a moment (paying off, catching bluffs, extracting extra bets if I hit a ten, yes I know this is severely oversimplifying), I'm getting 15.5-1 on my 22-1 shot. If my hand is good even ~5% of the time (think of it as a "one outer") then I need to call.

You make a good argument for betting the turn /images/graemlins/smile.gif. Also there's those overcards to worry about, and with these players limping I'm inclined to discount them holding an ace.

[droidboy]

[ QUOTE ]

Flop: 9s 8c 3h. SB checks, I bet, UTG raises, everyone coldcalls. I call intending to checkraise the turn if I like it. I define "like it" to be any non ace or king that isn't raised by the time it gets back to me. 5 to the turn for 12.5BBs.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you giving up an easy 2.5 big bets here? The problem with setting up a turn check-raise is that not only do *you* have to like it, but so does someone else. On that kind of flop, nearly any card can freeze up the raiser and the other players.

It looks like you are sacraficing EV to reduce your variance, or suffering from FPS.

- Andrew

www.pokerstove.com (http://www.pokerstove.com)

[BottlesOf]

Hey Clark, You equate your hand being best 5% of the time to a 1-outer, can you explain why that is? Is there a simple arithmetic way to convert, "My hand is good X% of the time" to a number of outs for purposes of deciding whether or not to make a call?

I feel like I should know this, but I don't.

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Crappy turn card...can you have the best hand here more than 10% of the time? In most mid-limit games I play in, you have the best hand less than 10% of the time and thus a C/F is in order. If your hand figures to be best more often, I believe a play at the pot becomes important.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post that I want to comment more on later. I'm hitting the road for the day, but for now I just wanted to point out that I don't need to have the best hand more than 10% of the time. Excluding the river for a moment (paying off, catching bluffs, extracting extra bets if I hit a ten, yes I know this is severely oversimplifying), I'm getting 15.5-1 on my 22-1 shot. If my hand is good even ~5% of the time (think of it as a "one outer") then I need to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your point is well taken, as the 10% figure I threw out was made in haste. But I believe you may have oversimlified the situation. First off, I think we can both agree that if your hand is the best now, there are many river cards that will cripple you. There are plenty of likely hands that are still drawing (JT, and perhaps any pair [9,8,3], QJ, or QT in many passive games of this type) that you will simply not get to fold here. That means that a K,Q,J,10,9,8, and even 3 are possibly detrimental river cards. So that is why I threw out 10% for the needed probability that you currently have the best hand, as I made a quick estimate that 3 hands that could see the river had approximately a 25-50% chance of drawing out. Furthermore, as previously stated, your set outs are clearly tainted since there figures to be at least one ten in your opponents' hands a decent amount of time and perhaps QJ which really cripples your hand. So all in all, I'm not sure what the correct probability of having the best hand that is necessary to continue on, but I believe it must be more than 5%.

[TonyBlair]

[ QUOTE ]
Excluding the river for a moment (paying off, catching bluffs, extracting extra bets if I hit a ten, yes I know this is severely oversimplifying), I'm getting 15.5-1 on my 22-1 shot. If my hand is good even ~5% of the time (think of it as a "one outer") then I need to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

My head hurts.
Could someone please explain what was just said?
I'm only going to comment on the turn call and say that I don't understand why it would be made. I can understand the implied odds of hitting the ten but
i) this may not be the best hand
ii) can you then factor into the equation that you'll call (when you miss the set) when most of the others PASS the river bet?

[Robk]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you giving up an easy 2.5 big bets here?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's not giving up 2.5 bb in expectation by calling the flop raise. I'm sure you could use that excellent program of yours to get a nice estimate of his pot equity here, and then you could come up with an appropriate figure /images/graemlins/smile.gif. But the reason he's giving up (some) expectation is because it will allow him to win the pot more often than he would by reraising on the flop. Whether this gains enough expectation to offset the loss on the flop is close in this situation IMO. But it shouldn't be dismissed out of hand.

[Clarkmeister]

"Why are you giving up an easy 2.5 big bets here? The problem with setting up a turn check-raise is that not only do *you* have to like it, but so does someone else. On that kind of flop, nearly any card can freeze up the raiser and the other players.

It looks like you are sacraficing EV to reduce your variance, or suffering from FPS."

I think my reasoning on this is essentially ABC sound, basic poker. Do you seriously think my pot equity on the flop is that large? It can go up substantially on the turn, and the chance to collect double bets on the expensive street more than makes up for whatever small fair share edge I'm failing to cash in on.

As for the turn card scaring my opponents from betting, as I said in my initial post, the UTG player is very loose aggressive. I would have been shocked had he checked any turn card.

[Robk]

[ QUOTE ]
You equate your hand being best 5% of the time to a 1-outer, can you explain why that is?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's saying that the two should give him roughly the same chance of having the best hand on the river. A one-outer will come in ~2.2% of the time. If his hand is good 5% of the time on the turn, and it remains best half the time, that gives him ~2.5% chance of being best on the river.

[ QUOTE ]
Is there a simple arithmetic way to convert, "My hand is good X% of the time" to a number of outs for purposes of deciding whether or not to make a call?


[/ QUOTE ]

There's no simple rule for this situation, because the chance that your hand remains best, if it is best, can vary. Even if there were, it wouldn't do much good because arriving at an accurate estimate of your chances of currently having the best hand can be very difficult, particularly at the table. But you don't usually need to do so because (in ring game situations anyway) the size of the pot dictates a call if you determine you have any reasonable chance of being best.

[Gabe]

Working backwards:

Turn: I don’t think you need to expend too much energy thinking about how to make it two bets when a T comes. However, I think you have more blank outs and have the best hand more often than most people would think.

Flop: It seems as though one person was playing your hand before the flop and another on the flop. Why stop Pot Builder Dave now?

Preflop: At some limit, against a certain type and/or number of opponents, would you ever consider the “more wins” approach? Just curious.

[Mikey]

KISS

[andyfox]

"I call intending to checkraise the turn if I like it."

With pocket tens, I'd want to eliminate as many players as possible from seeing the river. Thus I'd tend to bet out on the turn, as my 3-bet pre-flop and just-call of the flop raise should say "A-K" to some others and UTG is the most likely turn raiser.

[Clarkmeister]

"Folding for 1 bet here doesn't seem right since only the LAG fish is active and you close the action"

I thought about folding. Came close to calling 'time' actually. In the end, I didn't fold because of exactly what you mention. UTG LAG isn't going to stop betting, so his bet has to be taken with a grain of salt. And the button and SB both know enough that they would probabaly raise at least a big ace to try and protect in this massive pot. It's not a 4-8 game where people just call, call you down, they know how to raise.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
If you 3 bet the flop the pot would probably be big enough for your turn call to be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't that a pretty bad reason to 3-bet the flop?

[Clarkmeister]

I didn't go for a flop checkraise because I had the two most aggressive players in the hand to act immediately after me. It worked in that I got to confront the entire field with 2 cold, but alas, the game was so good that even 2 cold failed to protect me as I had hoped.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like the checkraise plan with queens or better as I'd be sufficiently more certain of getting in the cr with the best of it on the turn.


[/ QUOTE ] This reasoning cuts both ways. The fact that queens or better is more likely to get a good turn card is related to the fact that it is going to end up winning the pot much more often. Which means that it is giving up much more than TT by not jamming the flop. TT is giving up a somewhat profitable flop opportunity for a possibly more profitable turn. KK would be giving up a very profitable flop opporunity, which argues for jamming with it. Also, the fact that TT will less often like the turn card is a good argument for waiting to see what it is before putting in the money, while KK (for example) will like most turn cards, which means the information you gain by waiting to see it is less useful. Which isn't to say that I necessarily would or wouldn't reraise the flop with either hand. I'm just pointing out that the argument you give goes in both directions and can be turned around to argue for checkraising tens on the turn but not queens.

[/ QUOTE ]


Right. I am far more correct to play my tens this way than queens or especially aces. As I mentioned to Andrew Prock, I think my flop play is actually rather boring and straightforward. Textbook, even.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
I just wanted to point out that I don't need to have the best hand more than 10% of the time. xcluding the river for a moment (paying off, catching bluffs, extracting extra bets if I hit a ten, yes I know this is severely oversimplifying), I'm getting 15.5-1 on my 22-1 shot. If my hand is good even ~5% of the time (think of it as a "one outer") then I need to call.

You make a good argument for betting the turn /images/graemlins/smile.gif. Also there's those overcards to worry about, and with these players limping I'm inclined to discount them holding an ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, the button was the initial preflop raiser, so that was a concern. But this thread is making me think that betting the turn was indeed the way to go on this particular turn card, and likely the way to go with a king hitting as well.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
"I call intending to checkraise the turn if I like it."

With pocket tens, I'd want to eliminate as many players as possible from seeing the river. Thus I'd tend to bet out on the turn, as my 3-bet pre-flop and just-call of the flop raise should say "A-K" to some others and UTG is the most likely turn raiser.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I now think this is where I screwed up.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
And the button and SB both know enough that they would probabaly raise at least a big ace to try and protect in this massive pot. It's not a 4-8 game where people just call, call you down, they know how to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This puts you in a screwed spot. If they don't raise the A, then they likely don't have it. However, you look back and can see you may have just given some free cards, which sucks. Unless a c/r might clear some out, that might be an option. If anyone 3 bets your c/r you can fold. You can't really like any paint hitting the river.

It just feels like a bet should be put in here somewhere if your going to the river. Whether it's betting out on the A hitting the turn, or c/r after no one else has represented an A.

Ill work my way down the thread now and see what others say.

[ QUOTE ]
It's not a 4-8 game where people just call, call you down, they know how to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh, this describes my normal 10-20 game. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

b

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
Working backwards:

Turn: I don’t think you need to expend too much energy thinking about how to make it two bets when a T comes. However, I think you have more blank outs and have the best hand more often than most people would think.

Flop: It seems as though one person was playing your hand before the flop and another on the flop. Why stop Pot Builder Dave now?

Preflop: At some limit, against a certain type and/or number of opponents, would you ever consider the “more wins” approach? Just curious.

[/ QUOTE ]

Flop: I think I addressed it earlier in the thread. Chances are that at least 3 of the 4 overcards are covered, as well as some goofy baby pair and one of the board cards. IOW, while I likely have the pot equity lead with this board, I make way more money when I can charge them an extra BB on a good turn card than a SB on the flop with 2 cards still to come.

Preflop: It's not a limit-specific thing, it's a player thing. For example, one of the tighter players in the game (who folded in this hand) raised UTG, had 2 coldcallers, and I flat-called in the SB with AKo. But in the 40-80 earlier in the day, I 3-bet from the BB with AKo against a loose UTG raiser and 4 coldcallers.

Anyways, in this hand, it was the 4 really loose players, and the two most aggressive ones had already limped. The chance to charge them two cold, as well as 3 bets to see the flop with their garbage is too big an opportunity to pass up. If the preflop raiser had been a much tighter player, or the UTG limper had been someone capable of limping there with a big hand, I would have flat called. But this was like playing 4-8 in Commerce with the people who limp in with J7s. It's a crime to let them see the flop for 2 bets when you can make it 3.

[bernie]

i got to this post and think i finally got what he's saying. I read read it wrong the first time i saw it.

[ QUOTE ]

Excluding the river for a moment (paying off, catching bluffs, extracting extra bets if I hit a ten, yes I know this is severely oversimplifying), I'm getting 15.5-1 on my 22-1 shot. If my hand is good even ~5% of the time (think of it as a "one outer") then I need to call.


[/ QUOTE ]

He's adding an extra out to his 2 outer. Not reducing his outs to 1 out. So he's easily getting the 14-1 on a 3 outer to just make this call. Interesting way of looking at it, really.

b

[Clarkmeister]

"Whether it's betting out on the A hitting the turn, or c/r after no one else has represented an A."

Yeah, I now think these are the two best options. I like betting now because I can safely fold to a raise. But the c/r is nice if I am in the lead because it overrepresents my hand to an extent that I could conceivably get a bet from overcards on the turn while still getting them to fold before the river. But it'll still never get an ace to fold.

[chio]

i favor a turn bet as well:

(1) can easily fold to a raise given how much strength you've shown in this 5way protected pot, especially since you say postflop play is passive
(2) there is a small chance better hands might fold
(3) there is a bigger chance hands with many outs to beat you will incorrectly fold
(4) since the decision to call/fold for 1 bet is that painful when it gets back to you, might as well err to the aggressive side in this huge pot (now 12.5 BB)

come to think of it, the pot size + chance you have the best hand make it so that i can't think of any turn card where a bet OR c/r by you would be that big a mistake, given your probable tight image

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
It looks like you are sacraficing EV to reduce your variance, or suffering from FPS.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've read, hell, thousands of clarks posts. He doesn't have a problem with FPS. It has nothing to do with sacrificing EV to reduce variance at all. He's not on a short roll or playing with scared money.

This is actually a very tough spot to be in. Actually, one of the tougher hands i've seen on here in awhile. Jamming the flop really doesn't accomplish much in this hand. Especially with all the coldcallers of the initial flop raise already in.

b

[Diplomatdcm]

yeah, but i think a flop 3 bet is still in order. I know your flop equitly is not that great but there are just so many bad cards that I think the whole hand gets much eaiser if you 3 bet the flop. I mean an A or K may kill your hand or your action, a Q, J, 7, all suck too. So, i mean making life easier might not be the right decision, it might not be the highest EV, but it just appears to be the best play in this spot, adn keeps you out of tough turn decisions.
Dave

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
But the c/r is nice if I am in the lead because it overrepresents my hand to an extent that I could conceivably get a bet from overcards on the turn while still getting them to fold before the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

One thing i like about a c/r is that it looks stronger so may fold more hands even if they put in 1 bet. Betting out could freeze the LAG into calling, thus inducing calls behind him. Unless you think he'd raise if you did this. If he raises though, given your bet, you could be screwed unless he'd raise you with less than an A here.

However, you also know a little better where you stand in going for the c/r since everyone just called the initial bet. The only 1 at that moment who looks like they could have an A is the bettor given your description.

If they don't have an A, they'll reallly hate paying that extra bet here to see the river. This blows their effective odds a bit too if they are drawing.

Now this puts the bettor in a spot also, doesn't it? You just pull a strong move like that, if he 'thinks he plays good' (i have to check back and see if this is the guy we're talking about) he may be capable of making a laydown of an overpair to you here too. Though that's a minimal factor at this point. More of a benefit if that miracle happens.

Still not sure which way i'd go. But Im leaning towards the c/r, i think, because of the info factor involved with how they react to an initial turn bet.

b

[Clarkmeister]

So I called the turn.

The river was the 5c. Final board [9s 8c 3h] Ad 5c.

I checked, it was checked around. UTG looked down at the button who shrugged and looked sad. UTG then placed a 9 on the table. UTG and SB mucked and I rolled over my tens and MHIG. I then instantly felt like there was simply no way I could have played that one well.

Though it's safe to say I would have thrown up in my mouth had I folded the turn and seen that river action. In fact, a problem that I had all weekend was that i was too-readily folding less-than-top-pair postflop despite appearances that it was no good. For a while I was thinking that i wasn't folding enough postflop, but I no longer think that's the case after this weekend.

[Diplomatdcm]

I think not 3 betting the flop left at least 2 BBs on the table.
Dave

[vmacosta]

3-betting the flop might have lost him the pot. If UTG raised the turn and everyone else folded, he would have a tought time calling down. That's why, with such a vulnerable hand, you wait until the expensive street to make a play at the pot (or charge for drawing) since your chances of having the best hand at showdown, when a total turn brick comes, have more than doubled. I thought this was basic poker theory and I'm surprised so many people on this forum are so unhappy with it.

[Monkeyslacks]

[ QUOTE ]
Right. I am far more correct to play my tens this way than queens or especially aces. As I mentioned to Andrew Prock, I think my flop play is actually rather boring and straightforward. Textbook, even.

[/ QUOTE ]

It looks like I might misunderstand something fundamental here. I may be wrong, as I frequently am, so lets hash it out.

I think I grasp bobbyi's point. Let us say that TT will win 35% of the time here whereas AA will win 45% of the time. If neither 3-bet the flop, we'll be giving up less with TT than with AA. As bobbyi said, it's a function of the fact that AA collects more from each bet that goes in.

But that isn't the end of the hand. We're slowplaying here. We're passing up 1 sb from all opponents on this round in hopes of getting 1 bb from most opponents on the next round. AA is more likely to still be ahead when we get in this cr as per Clarkmeister's plan. How is it that playing the tens this way is more correct than the aces?

The only reason I can see is that we must foresee losing a lot of opponents on the turn or that the turn will be checked through. Neither of these things are indicated by the description of this game.(LAG will bet about any turn card. These guys all called two bets on the flop.)

Thoughts?

[Diplomatdcm]

i know what you are saying, and I would be much more inclied to do this with a) QQ or b) position, with neither it makes life a lot harder.

[Lawrence Ng]

Hi Clark,

Pre-flop play is fine. Flop play is fine.

On the turn, I would have bet out if I intended to call one raise. This is a great opportunity to see where you stand, perhaps represent AK and have hit and get an opponent with a pair of nines to fold. Check-calling garners a bit of information too, but not nearly as much as betting out the turn. If you were raised on the turn, then very likely I would fold my hand as pockets tens would be dominated here and you don't have odds to chase.

Again, on the river, I would just bet right out no matter what card falls down. The key for this hand is to keep betting out provided you are going to check-call anyways. If you are beat, so be it. But at least you play it strong which is key to maximizing your chances of winning here.

Lawrence.

[lil feller]

[ QUOTE ]
We're slowplaying here.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he's not. At this point he has to assume that there are several overcards and other draws out against him when he has a hand like TT. He is limiting the amount of money he invests on the cheap street because regardless of how much he is putting in, he can't really force anybody into a mistake. Playing TT like this is not slowplaying at all, its preventing the other players from getting +EV on money you put into the pot.

After the turn card he can make a decision, and if he still thinks he's best, he can now c/r for value as all the draws only have 1 card to come, not 2. As it turned out the A was (at least in my opinion) a great card to have come out and I would have bet out, forcing all the KQ's and QJ's to get the hell out of my pot, and if somebody spiked an ace (unlikely given all the passiveness pre flop) good for them.

When you make this play w/ AA, its a slow play. When you make it w/ TT, its being selectivly cautious, IMO.

[ToneLoc]

Hi all.

Reading this post is really interesting to me, as I would honestly never have thought about betting this turn. My first thoughts when seeing this hand is that you are badly beaten at this point (how wrong was I!!). UTG might well have limped with JJ, or 89 (even 88 or 99 played fast?). It is tough to imagine a preflop raiser/flop coldcaller in my view. The point that I really do not like is that your ten might well not be an out, as mentioned in the thread.

To sum up, you are saying that betting the turn is the good play, as you could get a better hand like JJ to fold, and can safely fold to a raise, as you are badly beaten when you are raised.

Could you clarify what is your line when you bet the turn and get called? I guess you will check the river, but are you going to call a bet then?

Could anyone sum up simply the merits of the turn check/raise line? Do you really think you are going to fold an ace here?

Thx in advance, great hand/thread.

J.

[DeeJ]

I think Clarkmeister means

[ QUOTE ]
If my hand is already good even ~5% of the time

[/ QUOTE ] ie his tens are the best without the river or with a blank.

Thanks to bernie for this, I misunderstood it first time as well.

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
know what you are saying, and I would be much more inclied to do this with a) QQ or

[/ QUOTE ]
But isn't a lower PP like TT more of a reason why you'd want to wait until the turn? With TT your equity will increase a lot? more on a safe turn card than it will with QQ, since QQ doesn't have to fear as many overcards.

Am I wrong?

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
So I called the turn.

The river was the 5c. Final board [9s 8c 3h] Ad 5c.

I checked, it was checked around. UTG looked down at the button who shrugged and looked sad. UTG then placed a 9 on the table. UTG and SB mucked and I rolled over my tens and MHIG. I then instantly felt like there was simply no way I could have played that one well.

Though it's safe to say I would have thrown up in my mouth had I folded the turn and seen that river action. In fact, a problem that I had all weekend was that i was too-readily folding less-than-top-pair postflop despite appearances that it was no good. For a while I was thinking that i wasn't folding enough postflop, but I no longer think that's the case after this weekend.

[/ QUOTE ]

This brings up a topic that I've been mentioning a lot lately. Whenever you play your hand less aggressively than you normally would, it is very dangerous to then make tight folds on later streets. When you just call the flop raise, you were signalling that you didn't have much of hand. I would think just about everyone would 3 bet this flop with an overpair. So everyone puts you on AK now. When you check the turn A, now everyone just puts you on nothing.

[droidboy]

[ QUOTE ]
This is actually a very tough spot to be in. Actually, one of the tougher hands i've seen on here in awhile. Jamming the flop really doesn't accomplish much in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

An overpair on the flop is a "very tough spot to be in"?

- Andrew

[droidboy]

[ QUOTE ]

I think my reasoning on this is essentially ABC sound, basic poker. Do you seriously think my pot equity on the flop is that large? It can go up substantially on the turn, and the chance to collect double bets on the expensive street more than makes up for whatever small fair share edge I'm failing to cash in on.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think the value you get from three betting the flop is greater than the value you get from slowplaying a vulnerablee hand. Again, any number of cards can come which will hurt you hand, so you might as well get the money in when you are sure you are getting the best of it.

You seem awfully sure that the money you left on the table on the flop will be exceeded on average by possible turn check-raises. Why do you think this? It lies at the heart of your flop mistake.

- Andrew

www.pokerstove.com (http://www.pokerstove.com)

[BarronVangorToth]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have thrown up in my mouth had I folded the turn and seen that river action.

[/ QUOTE ]


This is a -EV play.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com (http://www.BarronVangorToth.com)

[droidboy]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't go for a flop checkraise because I had the two most aggressive players in the hand to act immediately after me. It worked in that I got to confront the entire field with 2 cold, but alas, the game was so good that even 2 cold failed to protect me as I had hoped.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this really what you are thinking when you have an overpair which is probably good? You should be thinking about ways to get more money into the pot. Especially if you are going to be calling later bets when dangerous overcards start falling. Sure fewer opponents would be nice, but you have a very strong hand here. You want money in the pot.

- Andrew

www.pokerstove.com (http://www.pokerstove.com)

[andyfox]

Isn't our hand, though probably leading at present, precarious? Do we want more money in the pot to make it more right for others to stay until the river? I'd be thinking about ways of protecting here, with pocket tens, rather than getting more $ into the pot.

[James282]

Andrew - considering the size of the pot you would hate to let a hand like KJ or Q6 get to see the turn for one bet. You don't get more money by having them to get to the river, you lose it.
-James

[The Bear]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
know what you are saying, and I would be much more inclied to do this with a) QQ or

[/ QUOTE ]
But isn't a lower PP like TT more of a reason why you'd want to wait until the turn? With TT your equity will increase a lot? more on a safe turn card than it will with QQ, since QQ doesn't have to fear as many overcards.

Am I wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right.

[droidboy]

[ QUOTE ]
Andrew - considering the size of the pot you would hate to let a hand like KJ or Q6 get to see the turn for one bet. You don't get more money by having them to get to the river, you lose it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right. But getting them to fold isn't an option. The option is having them put in another 2 big bets strange when you have the best of it, or waiting till the turn and try and make up that lost ev somehow.

- Andrew

www.pokerstove.com (http://www.pokerstove.com)

[droidboy]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't our hand, though probably leading at present, precarious? Do we want more money in the pot to make it more right for others to stay until the river? I'd be thinking about ways of protecting here, with pocket tens, rather than getting more $ into the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems that you are arguing that if Clark three bets the flop, then hands which would fold to a bet on the turn will now call. I just don't see that as being the case. Clark's motivation was to wait till the turn and check-raise on favorable turns. He thinks that he can make up the EV that he sacrafices on the flop by doing this.

I've see no evidence of this. The main problem is that there are a lot of cards which might look inocent here which will beat him, causing him to lose more when he check-raises.

In general, your equity against four players is not going to increase very much on the trun when you hold TT. Versus four random opponents you've got about 41.5% equity on the flop. If a rainbow 2 falls, you've got 47% equity on the turn.

- Andrew

www.pokerstove.com (http://www.pokerstove.com)

[Diplomatdcm]

I know, he is right, but that is not my point. I understand that your have more equity on the turn but the turn could really screw your hand, so I think in this case you need to lose a little equity to play the hand correctly, well if not correctly have the best chance at not [censored] it up.
Dave

[delroylindo]

where was this game? mirage

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
In general, your equity against four players is not going to increase very much on the trun when you hold TT. Versus four random opponents you've got about 41.5% equity on the flop. If a rainbow 2 falls, you've got 47% equity on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we assume this is true, you're still ignoring that the size of the bet doubles on the turn. Which makes it much more profitable overall.

b

[droidboy]

[ QUOTE ]
If we assume this is true, you're still ignoring that the size of the bet doubles on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I'm not ignoring that.

- Andrew

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
An overpair on the flop is a "very tough spot to be in"?


[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously, i was talking about the turn.

This hand isn't as simple as just jamming the flop. Which is why pretty much everyone is in agreement with how he played the flop. But once you get past the 'basic' flop play, then you can look at the turn. Which is where the meat is on this hand.

It's not a good idea to blindly fling chips in the pot just because you have an overpair when there are better ways of both maximizing your chances of winning while maximizing your EV both at the same time. As stated above by other posters, if your overpair was bigger, then jamming the flop comes more into play.

When the pot gets big, your goal is to win it. It supercedes EV as the prime factor. Jamming this flop is not helping you win it at all. Therefore, it's easily worth sacrificing the little EV you have, if you are indeed ahead, to put yourself in a possible win win situation (players folding cleaning outs, or calling wrong due to effective odds) on the turn where if you stay in the lead, your EV is much bigger with double bets.

b

[Clarkmeister]

"Versus four random opponents you've got about 41.5% equity on the flop. If a rainbow 2 falls, you've got 47% equity on the turn."

This is an absurd assumption and you should know it. I am not against random hands here, and in fact, I am likely up against the exact hands that should make me most inclined to wait. Run it against a realistic hand linup such as AQ, QJ, 97s and 66 and see how much the equity goes up when the deuce comes.

Edit: I just did a quick twodimes and it goes from 36% to 55%. The fact that you would even attempt to use "random hands" when you clearly know better simply in order to make your point in this leads me to believe you are more interested in arguing than in actually coming to a reasoned conclusion.

[mike l.]

"I then instantly felt like there was simply no way I could have played that one well."

that is a very haunting upsetting feeling and i know it well. i need to think about this hand for awhile. your flop/turn combo is intriguing, but given the sorts of players it may have been best to just play really straight forwardly and 3 bet the flop and go ahead and bet that turn and pay off utg if he gets excited with a raise. how much would you love it if utg raises with a 9 on that turn scare card and the other guys fold hands that could catch up to you and he's drawing thin. lovely. plus i think you could 3 bet that flop and go ahead checkraise the turn anyway if a non-overcard comes, someone's bound to bet for you w/ a pair of 8s or 9s most of the time.

"For a while I was thinking that i wasn't folding enough postflop, but I no longer think that's the case after this weekend."

the higher you play the more you will think this.

[droidboy]

[ QUOTE ]
"Versus four random opponents you've got about 41.5% equity on the flop. If a rainbow 2 falls, you've got 47% equity on the turn."

This is an absurd assumption and you should know it. I am not against random hands here, and in fact, I am likely up against the exact hands that should make me most inclined to wait. Run it against a realistic hand linup such as AQ, QJ, 97s and 66 and see how much the equity goes up when the deuce comes.

Edit: I just did a quick twodimes and it goes from 36% to 55%. The fact that you would even attempt to use "random hands" when you clearly know better simply in order to make your point in this leads me to believe you are more interested in arguing than in actually coming to a reasoned conclusion.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you fooling me here?

You just can't use twodimes to compute your equity here. The fact that you would use twodimes when you should know better leads me to believe that you don't know better. You can't model hand distributions with specific hands.

I used random hands as a simple barometer. It's quite clear that an unsuited 2 isn't going to always fall on the turn either. If you want a better barometer, you can craft the distributions yourself. It's not that hard. If they hold any suited, any broadway, minus pocket pairs JJ+, your flop to turn equity with a turned offsuit 2 goes from 42% to 56%.

What does that mean? It means that in this specific situation, you'll have to get .75 bets in for every bet you left on the flop. Is your check raise going to net you an extra 1.5 bets on average when a 2 turns? Yes, probably more. What about the other 46 cards?

An offsuit seven boots you to 50% equity. A suited jack drops you to 28% equity. A suited ace drops you to 25% equity. How many bets are you going to get in when a Ten turns? Two, maybe four? Wouldn't you prefer to get in three, maybe five? With your agro player, what are the relative chances of each of those cases?

The key point is simple. You make more money here three betting the flop, and you haven't given any reasoned response as to why you think this is false. Ironically, you should raise the flop for exactly the same reasons you said you raised preflop. This weird contradiction in your approach to the game is costing you money.

I'm not trying to argue for the sake of arguing. I'm trying to get you to support your position. You still have given no evidence that you will be able to recoup the value that you refused to take on flop. A guaranteed two big bets when you are ahead on the flop is significant value. You haven't even estimated that value, let alone tried to reason through the possibilities on the turn and beyond.

- Andrew

[droidboy]

[ QUOTE ]
given the sorts of players it may have been best to just play really straight forwardly and 3 bet the flop and go ahead and bet that turn and pay off utg if he gets excited with a raise...

plus i think you could 3 bet that flop and go ahead checkraise the turn anyway if a non-overcard comes, someone's bound to bet for you w/ a pair of 8s or 9s most of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree wholeheartedly.

- Andrew

[droidboy]

[ QUOTE ]
It supercedes EV as the prime factor.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing supercedes EV. That is the point of the game. You want to maximize your EV.

- Andrew

[Clarkmeister]

"You just can't use twodimes to compute your equity here. The fact that you would use twodimes when you should know better leads me to believe that you don't know better. "

Interesting conclusion. The correct one, however, would be that I am at work and didn't want to waste the time when a quick and dirty method would adequately make the point.

[andyfox]

"It seems that you are arguing that if Clark three bets the flop, then hands which would fold to a bet on the turn will now call. I just don't see that as being the case."

I do. If the pot is bigger, they'd be correct to call a turn bet more often than if it was smaller. With the tens, my prime consideration would be to keep them from seeing a river card.

He's not up against 4 random hands. I would imagine his equity would go up substantially against the hands he's likely up against, when a rainbow 2 comes on the turn.

[bernie]

Putting yourself in position to better maximize your chances of winning when a pot is big is huge EV. It's a main part of EV during a hand, especially when a pot is big. Putting yourself in a win-win situation is one of the best you can be in.

EV isn't just, 'i think i have the best hand so i 'must' bet it'. That's not optimizing one's play. That's just going by default w/o thinking the situation through.

There's much more EV on the turn than on the flop in this case. So much more that it's worth forgoing the 3 bet on the flop.

But hey, keep up the good fight.

b

[Ray Zee]

i guess you would rather have 15 bets in there on the flop rather than 10. so you raised it. i could think of a few reasons i would like the pot smaller with tens specifically. changes how the hand will play out for sure unless they all just call all the way down.

with such a big pot, changing from the just push hard startegy with the best looking hand has to have a good reason. and that reason in a big pot, must be that it will knock out potential winners. will your way do this. i am old and out of date with the games as mike says but i might just three bet it on the flop. and lead out when the ace comes. that might get someone out that may hit a face card and beat me.
lots of ways to play these hands in big pots. most times the outcome is written on the wall and all you can do is play to maximize or minimize.