Rock Bottom

[Dreamcatcher]

I can't believe in probability anymore. I just seem to get F'ed everytime I play. I guess everyone has been here. My current wonderful streak has lasted a month. I only play on the weekends (for the most part) and get in about 20 hours a week. I play mostly online. I was playing 5/10, but the tables were just too tight, so I moved up to 15/30 because my bankroll could afford it (so I thought). I have been doing nothing but breaking even for a month (I guess that's better than losing, but not much better). The last month, by the way, has been a combination of 5/10 and 15/30. I noticed no difference at either table (aside from the somewhat tighter 5/10 vs the somewhat looser 15/30). I have enclosed two hands for comments, but I'm mainly curious to understand how people deal with bad beats that last, seemingly, forever.
As my luck continues, the converter doesn't seem to be working so here goes:
I'm in the BB with KhKs, 10 players at 15/30, the table seems to be regular with some aggressive tendencies. No maniacs and no rocks (as far as I can tell). I see my hand and am elated until, UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, LP calls, button folds, SB calls, I call? - I'm not sure what a re-raise accomplishes here since UTG was the original raiser, and building a pot doesn't seem to make sense.
Flop is [ 4h, 6d, 7c ].
SB checks, I bet (I know c/r might be better, but I'm confused with what happened pre-flop, so with this flop and me betting my opponents should be nervous), UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 raises, LP folds, SB folds, I re-raise, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls. I'm actually semi-happy here, again, because the one player I have an OK read on is MP3. He is a little loose, but somewhat solid. He likes to see flops, but is solid after the flop(BTW, at this point I've put him on QQ). I'd never seen him play in a pfr pot.
Turn is 3h.
I bet, MP3 calls.
River is 3s.
I bet, MP3 raises (?), I call (?).

I'm sorry this post is getting long, but I'd like to squeeze one more hand in, if I can.
Same table with 8 players. Again I'm in the BB, this time with 9c Td. (BTW this is the same table as before with the same players)
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 raises, button calls, SB calls, I call (I feel like MP2's raise is a steal or a semi-steal).
Flop 2c, Qd, 8h.
SB checks, I check, MP2 (MP3 from above) checks, button checks (I feel pretty good about my hand here and think that I could take down the pot with a turn bet).
Turn 7c.
SB bets, I call, MP2 folds, button folds. (SB is as mysterious as me which is annoying, but I think the call is OK given I have position)
River 9h.
SB bets, I raise?

I appreciate any helpful insight. I know I'm not a great poker player, but I'd appreciate it if you'd be constructive rather than obnoxious. sorry for the long post, but I think more are sure to come.

[evanski]

never slowplay kings.

[Ian J]

Not 3 betting preflop in hand 1 is ridiculous. You 3 bet here for one reason.... VALUE. And no, check raising the flop is not best. You want UTG to raise your bet and face the field with 2 bets cold.

Hand 2 the preflop call is marginal. I don't see why you like your hand just because the flop was checked around. I think you're missing some fundamentals and should read Small Stakes Hold Em.

[bugstud]

II call? - I'm not sure what a re-raise accomplishes here since UTG was the original raiser, and building a pot doesn't seem to make sense.



So what are you gpong to build pots with?

[Schneids]

Nobody has said it so I guess I get to be the dick of the forums for a minute...

You are probably breaking even because you are not a very good player. You are probably very fortunate to have broken even the past month. You lack a lot of fundamental knowledge that winning poker players possess. This is easily apparent from reading your post.

I'm trying to be nice telling you this, it is for your own benefit.

1) Not reraising KK PF in that spot is atrocious. It is costing you a lot of money in the long run.
2) Betting out on that flop is almost always going to be better in the Party 15 game.
3) Putting MP3 on exactly QQ is absurd.
4) If your table read in the T9 hand is that you think you can take the pot with a bet on the turn (ie you think SB would have bet on the flop with any pair) than you'd be much better off raising the SB's bet on the turn as it's much more likely you'll win the pot without a showdown this way (ie you are basing your raise on the suspicion SB is betting a flush draw or straight draw because you believe he'd bet the flop with a pair).
5) You claim to not have very good reads on the players yet you somehow believe you can steal the T9 pot with a turn bet. Do you see the contradiction?

P.S. It is possible to break even for a month at 20hrs/week and still be playing exceptionally good poker. FWIW.

Welcome to the forum I hope I didn't come off as too big of a jerk.

[Joseph Busti]

come on dude, MP raised, what else can he have other than QQ?

[tripdad]

Dreamcatcher,

i'm not a terrific player, either, but i must agree with Schneids here.

there are certain things one must have an understanding of in order to be even a margianally winning player. you have shown in your post that you clearly do not have the fundamental grasp of the nature of the game and what is needed to be successful.

i must say, however, that all the information you need is available should you really want to improve. and improvement is a never ending quest, as the game changes constantly. evryone makes mistakes, and there is no perfect player, only perfect plays.

good luck!

[mikelow]

Take a break and analyze. On hand two, a pair is a terrible thing to happen to a straight draw. Give that one up. As for hand one, I don't know.

Maybe you don't have a talent for the game, maybe you do. You need to really look at your play.

See ya in January.

[Deftoner]

I like the call from bb in hand 1. It disguises your hand and allows you to bet any non-ace flop and hopefully utg will make it 2 bets cold to the rest of the field.

Re-raising preflop tells the table you have aa/kk. It also puts more money into the pot giving your opponents correct odds to draw to nearly anything on the flop. calling gives you the best chance to win the pot imo. KK isn't good 6 way, you need to try and give yourself the best chance to win the pot and not worry about building a big pot multiway.

my 2cents=\

[lil feller]

Just calling PF w/ KK in a typical party 15 game is insane. You aren't raising for any other reason then for value, period. People in those games don't automatically assume you have AA or KK when you three bet, and if they do you aren't 3 betting enough.

[Stork]

[ QUOTE ]
Re-raising preflop tells the table you have aa/kk.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, reraising tells the table that you probably have two face cards or better.

[ QUOTE ]
It also puts more money into the pot giving your opponents correct odds to draw to nearly anything on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
You should read SSH. This logic neglects the mistake these players make preflop by calling the raise in the first place.

[ QUOTE ]
calling gives you the best chance to win the pot imo.

[/ QUOTE ]
How can calling give you the best chance to win the pot? You give yourself a chance to win the pot by giving your opponents a chance to fold. Raising accomplishes this. Calling doesn't.

[ QUOTE ]
KK isn't good 6 way, you need to try and give yourself the best chance to win the pot and not worry about building a big pot multiway.

[/ QUOTE ]
KK is good any way. It's the second best hand in the whole game, why wouldn't you want more people to put money into this pot which you expect to win way more than your fair share of the time?

[Dreamcatcher]

I don't mean to be a jerk here, but I don't understand some of the logic. I fully accept that hand 2 was me "on-tilt" hoping to win, fine. However, on hand one I hear a lot of not 3-betting is horrible. Could anyone expand on this? I might not have been perfectly clear, but this table was playing fairly normal (which to me means not a lot of pre-flop raising and calling), the situation I described seems to be players who are a bit loose (and aggressive), which was not typical of what I saw at the table to that point. I called because I assumed my opponents (who had not played terribly loose at that point) either had a decent pp, good A, or good drawing hand. Two out of those three are bad for me and making a large pot pre-flop seems to help them more than it helps me. I understand that my hand is almost surely best pre-flop, but I fear what happens on the flop. I'm looking to win the pot as soon as possible (with my Kings that don't draw well) and call and go for a c/r on the flop. This also helps me avoid wasting money if an Ace flops, which I can hardly bet/raise against with 5 opponents calling 3-bets. I believe, and correct me if I'm wrong (which I'm sure you will do), that if I 3-bet, this hand is going to the river. I'm not sure KK does well enough going to the river to call this 3-bet +EV, but if your books say it's true, than it must be.
If my opponents were as loose as some of you (for some reason) think they are, I would, no doubt, 3-bet pre-flop.

[etizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
I understand that my hand is almost surely best pre-flop

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure KK does well enough going to the river

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have the best hand preflop, than ON AVERAGE you will have the best hand at the river more often than any other hand.

Tell yourself that a few hundred times.

[Dreamcatcher]

I guess my point is lost. You talk about "on average". That's great for typical hands. For example, you should call a $5 bet with a $60 pot when you have a gut shot because you are 11-1 and the pot odds justify it. On average, you will win more money than you lose (provided the pot odds are usually better than 11-1). Great. What if the situation you are facing is very rare? I don't know about anyone else, but this is the first time I've been in a situation where the first person in raised, 4 people called and I was the last to act with KK. On average is bullshit. Sorry, but this doesn't happen enough, like gut-shots, to consider it a play to make "on average", where the long term results are positive.
Again, no offense to the book-smart guys, but give me something better than "on-average".

[StraitRazor]

Okay, dude. I'm going to step in here because this is really obvious.

The only hand that is better than yours is AA. There are six possibilities that that hand is out there. You're telling everybody here that you don't think raising here is a good idea because you won't cause anybody to fold. That logic is fine for AQ in some games, but for KK... you're giving up a lot. Let me dumb it down and then give an example.

Your KK is probably the best hand in play right now. Since this is the case, you should make other players put in as much money as possible right now. When you no longer feel that you're hand is the best, or you know it isn't... throw it away. For the sake of this argument, if nine players call all your bets and you win you'll win that much. If they call all your bets and you lose, you'll lose very few bets by comparison. It's deeper than that, but I'm simplifying.

Last night, same situation. I have KK in the BB. Full ring, 6 players call. SB raises. I re-raise. 8 of us see the flop for 3 bets each. Ace on the flop. I check and fold. Pair of Aces (3 kicker. Offsuit... yup) wins the pot. I will get as many raises in the pot against that guy as I can when in that situation.

Not to beat up on you, but you raise to get more money in the pot when you win. There are times when you want to raise the thin the field, this is not your objective here though. YOu're raising because you have the best hand and you want other players to pay you off.

Good luck.

[kidpoker22]

I hear ya' dude. I've been slumping pretty hard myself lately...But, in response to your post, I have a couple of comments about how you played those two hands.

The first hand I agree that you don't three-bet pre-flop. You're out of position to play the hand and nobody's going anywhere if you do. On the flop, a check/raise probably isn't going to work. Since you're going to be last act (raise) when the action gets back around to you everyone that is going to call is going to stick around for one more bet. You bet in hopes that the UTG raiser will 3-bet and isolate you and him. The raiser on the flop probably flopped a set and was trapping you on the turn. After he three-bet preflop, I would shut it down. You may end up missing a value bet or two if he holds 88 or something like that, but if he did flop a set you minimize your losses.

On the second hand, I don't really understand your play. If you read the raiser for weakness then I would either semi-steal on the flop and take control or check/raise if you can get it heads up...also taking control. If he has nothing and you put pressure on him on the turn and river you win the pot.

Hope this helps,
This is my first post...I'm excited. I was posting with the micro-limit players at FTR and they sooooo didn't get what I was saying.

KP22

[Kevin J]

A simpler way to understand this is to realize that even though KK is a dog to win any particular pot against a field of 5, it is still a HUGE money favorite. A re-raise pre-flop on your part adds a minimum of $90 (possibly $180 if UTG caps) to the pot. A good portion of this money belongs to KK in the way of pre-flop equity. In short, you are passing up too much pre-flop equity by failing to get as much $$ in the pot as possible, even though you will lose the hand more times than not. Does that make sense?

Now there might be some reasons NOT to re-raise. For instance, if you felt that NOT re-raising would enable you to win (a smaller pot), but a much higher percentage of the time, Or... If by not re-raising you could make MORE money after the flop through deception, then a case can be made for just calling. This might sometimes be the case with hands like AK,AQ, 77, or oddly enough, if you were heads-up. But against 5 players, KK has just too much equity not to build the biggest pot possible before the flop, even though you can expect to lose any individual hand.

One other thing: It's interesting to note that even if you felt there was some chance UTG might have AA, re-raising still doesn't cost you much, since you are getting 5 to 1 to flop a set.