Play along, anyone? KK, flopped A, sizeable field

[Corkscrew]

This is actually a situation that hasn't happened a lot lately. Usually, if an A flops, I'm up against 1 or 2 opponents, or against a large field there's no A in sight. This time, however, both were the case, so it was hard to know where I was.

Anyhow, I figured I'd try the novelty of making a play along hand, because I found myself wavering in almost every situation, and so I'd like those who are willing to help to see it from my point of view. I'll skip preflop, since that's a pretty obvious one. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Reads wise, I had the following:

UTG - LAG, but all over the map. I'd seen him raise Q4o preflop, but NOT AQo. I wouldn't remember those except that I was in both hands momentarily, so I paid attention to what was showed down.
UTG+2 - No read. 2nd hand at the table.
MP2 - Rather fishy. VP$IP of at least 40%.
SB - Roughly a carbon copy of MP2.
BB - Maniac. VP > 50%, PFR of almost 10%, fairly aggressive postflop even with hands like top pair no kicker.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="666666">UTG raises (All-In), 1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (11.25 SB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero ...

Thanks in advance for your comments!

[Hack]

With 5 other players in the hand with you you can be almost certain(80-90% sure) someone has an ace and already has you beat. People like to call raises with Ax. The bad thing about this is that it's hard to tell where you are in the hand. Often times people with weak Aces will call you down to the river, and you'll be shown aces. They'll be scared that maybe you have AK so they won't raise.

[skunkworks]

Bet the flop, bet the turn, check the river is my default line on a hand like this. I don't like giving free cards, and no one has showed aggression which should make you think that you are ahead. If you get checkraised on the flop, you can call and fold the turn unimproved. If you get C/Red on the turn, you can fold safely.

[skunkworks]

[ QUOTE ]
With 5 other players in the hand with you you can be almost certain(80-90% sure) someone has an ace and already has you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like this advice. I think it's wrong, and I think the 80-90% figure is just a random figure that reflects some weak-tight thinking. Not trying to be mean... I just don't want a beginner reading a post like this and being misled.

[Hack]

It's okay, but it's just my experience from playing low-limit poker. Normally when there are 6 people in a hand someone has an ace, and they won't fold it if an ace flops. I do think 80% is a good figure though. Don't you think if 5 people call that someone has Ax

I'm not advocating that this guy not bet into the pot, because he should, but I'm just saying that lots of times he's going to bet all the way to the river, get called, and be shown Ax. People in low limit games like to call raises with any ace, and you have to raise with pocket Kings.

And an ace won't come on the flop most of the time. I know that cowboys aren't ace magnets, but I'm just saying that when an ace DOES come, with so many people in the hand, it's likely that he's beat, and he won't know it until the river.

As for the CR, it usually indicates that the CR'er has top pair/good kicker or better.

[skunkworks]

It's a big pot already, so our Hero needs to maximize his chances of taking it down. All he needs to do is invest 1.5 BB to bet the flop, bet the turn, and check the river through. And maybe if he's lucky, he'll run into someone who likes to make strong folds with TPBK.

Granted, I think you'll see someone with an ace here pretty frequently. Maybe even your 80% estimation is correct. But the other 20% of the time, you'll win enough to recoup the money you lost by betting a second-best hand (and maybe more). And there will be times you'll spike a K miraculously. Add up all these situations, and you have a case for playing this hand aggressively.

[Hack]

Aggressively yes. Obviously he should bet and if he's called to the river and not raised he should stick with it, but the chances of spiking a King on the turn is 22:1 I think. Obviously he will get paid off big if it does hit but it just doesn't happen that often. It's also quite possible that one of his opponents has a King as well, which decreases his outs to one, basically. But we can assume that he has two outs.

I am just speaking from experience that playing weak Kings and weak Aces is popular.

I think his hand here is beat more often than not, and while he has to push it since he bet before the flop, I think that Kings are probably -EV against 5 opponents in a raised pot when an ace hits the flop, even considering the chances of spiking a king on the turn or river.

Being behind here 80% of the time is hardly every profitable, even as like I said, you consider the possibility of spiking a king on the turn or river.

[Hack]

Aggressively yes. Obviously he should bet and if he's called to the river and not raised he should stick with it, but the chances of spiking a King on the turn is 22:1 I think. Obviously he will get paid off big if it does hit but it just doesn't happen that often. It's also quite possible that one of his opponents has a King as well, which decreases his outs to one, basically. But we can assume that he has two outs.

I am just speaking from experience that playing weak Kings and weak Aces is popular.

I think his hand here is beat more often than not, and while he has to push it since he bet before the flop, I think that Kings are probably -EV against 5 opponents in a raised pot when an ace hits the flop, even considering the chances of spiking a king on the turn or river.

Being behind here 80% of the time is hardly every profitable, even as like I said, you consider the possibility of spiking a king on the turn or river. If he is raised, however, it's an absolute fold, no question about it.

[Corkscrew]

Thanks for the good advice thus far from both of you. I'll skip the play along for the rest of the hand and just post the remainder now.

Picking up from where I left off...

<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (8.13 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+2 folds.

River: (12.13 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, SB folds.

Final Pot: 14.13 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 14.13 BB, between UTG, Hero and MP2.</font>

After thinking about what you said, skunkworks, I can see the value in just checking the river. It seems like most of the time anyone who's left is probably going to be holding Ax and was calling rather than betting/raising for fear of AK/AQ.

Edit: Had to go back and fix pot sizes to account for UTG being all in preflop with the remainder of his meager stack. That kind of screwed the hand converter up, thus.

[skunkworks]

[ QUOTE ]
After thinking about what you said, skunkworks, I can see the value in just checking the river. It seems like most of the time anyone who's left is probably going to be holding Ax and was calling rather than betting/raising for fear of AK/AQ.


[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. Out of the hands that call a river bet, I don't think you win against enough of them given that they've called you twice on an A-high board. I would check the river. If MP2 bet the river and SB called, I might be able to find a fold on a perfect day where I was "in tune" with the table. Otherwise, the pot's too big to fold.

Edit: In response to Hack, the pot is much too big to be able to say this is a -EV situation. The fact that the pot is large and our hero has an estimated 20% chance of being ahead makes this situation +EV overall. Although each bet individually may not be profitable, the fact that the pot is large makes this overall situation profitable.

[grjr]

How about if someone was calling along with A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and trying for the flush. Would they fold to a river bet?

[Smasharoo]

How about if someone was calling along with A 3 and trying for the flush. Would they fold to a river bet?


No one's folding Ax to a river bet with the pot that big.

You bet the flop and turn so you can hopefully check the river and get a free showdown. You might fold out a small ace on the flop or the turn, but for one more bet into a big pot you're not going to get many people to lay an ace down.

[HajiShirazu]

Nobody who saw this flop with an ace will ever fold, so you're basically just betting hoping to collect value the times that nobody has an ace.
The alternative is check folding but that sucks, the pot is big and you could have the best hand.