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View Full Version : +EV in a horse-fight?


DavidC
11-27-2004, 09:19 PM
Hey guys,

I was in a really interesting situation a few months ago; I had to bet literally two lives on the result: that of AdamL and myself. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

We're naturally inquisitive folks, and we love going for walks late at night (his wife is kind enough to let us do this). We were walking through the outskirts of town, when we came upon a large property with a small stable and two horses.

I'm not particularly thrilled about horses, but Adam wanted to go pet the thing, so we walked down the hill and up to the fence. Once we got there, we realized that there was an opening in the fence. The horse came out through the opening.

I was kinda hesitant, realizing that there could be some danger in the situation, but Adam wanted to stay for a bit, so I stayed too. The horse came right up to us, and Adam tried to pet it.

The horse, presumably male defending its territory and mate, decided to use it's massive head to push Adam back, and was biting at Adam's leather jacket, repeatedly. I told Adam that it wasn't good, and he said that the horse was just hungry, looking for food in his pockets.

We backed up a step, and the horse moved forward a step. The horse again bit the jacket, and it was pretty clear that the situation had gone from bad to worse. I figured that intimidation was the only way to end the confrontation (I couldn't actually beat up a horse, but I sure could threaten it).

So I took a step forward and threw a punch at the horse's head (first time I've ever done that). The horse, amazing enough, dodged my punch! I couldn't believe it.

It startled a bit, took a couple steps back, and stopped. We both sort of looked at eachother and said, "Oh [censored]."

The horse turned and ran about 30 feet. Stopped. Turned around, and then ran back into its stable. We took the opportunity to get the hell out of there.

It was a great victory for me: "I kicked a horse's ass!"

But something nags at me...

There was a serious risk to my health in this situation.

I'm not trying to be too results oriented. Don't get me wrong, I'm happy to be alive, but I'm curious as to what the results would be say, over perhaps 10k horse-fights.

By the way, anyone who has any knowledge of horses, such as whether or not they would carry a grudge, that information would be helpful.

For example, what if Adam knew that the situation was dangerous, but decided to let me punch the horse, rather than incur its wrath himself?

In this case, would Adam's EV be higher than my own, or would there be no difference? Was I ever in any danger at all?

What's my EV for letting the horse eat Adam? Would the value of his friendship factor somehow into my EV?

Also, what about if it were a different animal than a horse? Adam and I have discussed this quite a bit, and he's asked me if I would do the same thing had we been in a bad situation with an elephant. I said of course not: that'd be crazy!

Does anyone have any stats on what my EV might be like in an elephant fight as opposed to a horse fight?

I should note that I'm about 165 lbs, 5'11", and Adams a little lighter and perhaps an inch shorter. I'm hella-quick though.

Please send your responses, so that we can rationally evaluate the situation, should it ever occur again.

Thanks,
Dave and Adam.

Yobz
11-27-2004, 09:25 PM
This wins post of the day

srt19170
11-27-2004, 09:28 PM
Was Adam to your left or right?

-- Scott

AdamL
11-27-2004, 09:31 PM
I was to his right. What kind of variance can we expect on this play? Do factors such as whether the horse got laid the night before, or whether he had carrors or barley factor in?

Hack
11-27-2004, 09:48 PM
Kick to the horse's nuts is +EV if you can outrun him. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

On edit:
nuts, haha. Very witty. Make sure he has the nuts before you attempt this.

Yobz
11-27-2004, 09:53 PM
trying to outrun a pissed colt sounds like a very -EV move

DeuceKicker
11-27-2004, 09:54 PM
[ QUOTE ]
... inquisitive... love going for walks late at night... decided to use it's massive head... We both sort of looked at eachother and said, "Oh [censored]."

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of this sounds similar to some questionable literature I used to read as a teen.

[ QUOTE ]
So I took a step forward and threw a punch at the horse's head (first time I've ever done that). The horse, amazing enough, dodged my punch!

[/ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
...Adams... perhaps an inch shorter.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry for Adam

[ QUOTE ]
I'm hella-quick.

[/ QUOTE ]

In light of the fact that you tried to punch a horse and missed, perhaps you should reevaluate this statement. Unless you were talking about... uh, in that case sorry for you.

Hack
11-27-2004, 10:14 PM
True, but what about this. What if his friend does it and sacrifices his life(-EV for him). Then it gives this guy a chance to get away and save his own life(very +EV).