Too passive with cowboys?

[Mr_RC]

I'm wondering if I let myself be bullied out of a +EV situation. I'm still fairly new to poker but working to improve...please be gentle.

MP1 is a LP-P fish playing 45% of his hands and MP2 is a rock. I'd caught MP1 bluffing once (did not see the cards but folded to my river re-raise with an A on the river previously). In this hand I may have just gotten cold feet. Opinions?

Ultimate Bet 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Hero folds, <font color="CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, MP2 calls.

River: (14.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 16.25 BB

[Hack]

If MP1 is really as LA as you say he is then an ace is very possible. Your cowboyscould be beat in two places and if MP2 is a real rock then he has an ace too, and maybe even TPTK(AK). I can't see a rock staying in the hand with just a jack when someone has 3 bet on an ace falling. I would put the rock on AK/AQ and maybe the maniac on a crappy ace. The maniac could also have a crappier two pair. That's the thing about maniacs. They are harder to read. I am almost sure the rock has you beat, however.

Point being, Don't worry about what the maniac has in this hand. If the rock is willing to raise the maniac on the turn when an ace falls then you are almost definitely beat.

I say fold. You didn't play it too passively, you played it just right, and you just got outdrawn. Others may disagree.

P.S. - I'd be interested to know the outcome of this hand. You can post it later if you'd like, after others have had a chance to respond.

Take care.

[Shillx]

Uhhh you have repped AA-JJ and possibly AK in this hand. If a rock raises into the hero on the turn, he has 2 pair at a minimum IMO. Not only would I fold KK here, I would fold AK here in a heartbeat.

Shill

[Nick Royale]

It's impossible to call 2-cold with KK when an Ace is on the board. Especially against a rock.

[Hack]

I agree with this post. If you look at mine then Nick gives the rock even more credit than I do and I agree with him.

A true rock could very well have AJs or o at this point. and the maniac could have a crappy ace.

[Yobz]

[ QUOTE ]
Uhhh you have repped AA-JJ and possibly AK in this hand. If a rock raises into the hero on the turn, he has 2 pair at a minimum IMO. Not only would I fold KK here, I would fold AK here in a heartbeat.

Shill

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the KK fold was fine given the reads, but folding AK here in a heartbeat? I think I would call down with TPTK on a non-coordinated board

[Hack]

I agree. I'd check/call with AK but fold KK instantly. Expect your AK to lose 8 times out of 10 though, what with the rock raising the maniac on the turn. It could very well be a set of slowplayed jacks or aces.

[Shillx]

Put yourself in the rocks shoes. If he has AK/AQ, what does raising do for him? If our hero has KK/QQ, then the raise scares away a hand that is nearly dead. If our hero has AA/JJ then it just costs him more. MP2 is in a way ahead/behind spot with our hero here, so his only motivation to raise is to get into a war with MP1. Calling with AK here is a donation IMO.

Shill

[Hack]

It's a good point, but the pot is too big here for the rock to fold for an extra bet, in my opinion.

But the original post isn't about the rock, it's about the hero. And the hero is almost certainly beat.

[Mr_RC]

I was definitely scared away from my KK holding once the rock raised. The rock's play was so passive normally that I started to think he might have AA in the hole and had decided to raise the turn. I felt pretty good about the fold after the 3-bet of course.

Thanks all for the commentary.

Results in white below: <font color="white">
UTG doesn't show.
MP1 has Jc 8s (full house, jacks full of eights).
MP2 has Tc Ac (two pair, aces and jacks).
Outcome: MP1 wins 16.25 BB.

I was really surprised to see the rock's holdings in this hand. I assume he put the normally loose/passive MP1 on ace-rag or maybe a bluff. Either way my kings were no good.</font>

[Hack]

That is surprising.

The maniac's holding was surprising to me but then again that's why they're called maniacs.

[GrunchCan]

Welcome to the forums.

MP1 stop-and-go'es you 3 times, and a known rock wakes up when the A comes on the turn. You are getting about 1-5 to play, and I don;'t think your hand is good more than 20% of the time. I fold.

Also, be more consitent with your reads. You said at the beginnint that MP1 was passive post-flop, then wen't on to say you "caught him bluffing," implying you suspect he makes a habit of bluffing. Players are either generally passive, or generally bluffy post flop. They can't be passive bluffers.

[GrunchCan]

I was really surprised to see the rock's holdings in this hand.

I wasn't. In fact, its exactly what I thought he had before I read the results. (Honest!)

MP2's play is precisely consistent with that holding and your reading of him as a rock.

[Mr_RC]

I appreciate your input about the MP1 read. My reading skills are still pretty weak; however, when I caught this guy bluffing it was on the river when I had checked the turn in a small pot.

MP1 was passive for the most part, but in retrospect I'll admit he would be willing to bluff the river with scare cards on the board. However, his post-flop raises were uncommon enough to probably be an indication of a decent made hand. I don't think I could possibly "put" him on J8 due to his willingness to play so many hands.

My take on the rock's play of this hand is that his read on MP1 was similar to my own...maybe he'd had enough. At any rate, in this particular case, I think the rock's turn RR saved me at least 2 BB because otherwise I would have likely raised the turn myself and at least called the river with my KK.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
MP2's play is precisely consistent with that holding and your reading of him as a rock.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think this is how a "rock" plays this hand.

First off, rocks don't play ATo. Second, they wouldn't call a bet and a raise on the flop with one overcard and a weak backdoor straight draw. Then, he wouldn't raise with TPMK after that flop action.

[umdpoker]

i would fold this every time, unless i had some kind of super-read on these players. you are almost always behind here.