Semi-bluffing All-in on the Bubble

[zeitgeist]

It's a $10+1 MTT on bugsysclub. The top 30 places are paid and at the moment, 34 players remain out of a field of 200. Blinds are 1500-3000 (but are going up on the next hand) plus a 500 ante, and I have about 40K, which is roughly average. The rest of the (full) table has between 25K and 50K. I've recently been moved here and don't have much in the way of reads.

The table is playing pretty tight, with a minimum raise usually being sufficient to take down the blinds.

I get Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif in late middle position and it's folded to me. I make it 6000 in hopes of taking the blinds (My preference is to raise the pot here, but again, everyone was playing quite tight so I was raising smaller). Everyone folds except the blinds. Both of them have me covered, but just barely (i.e. they lead me by 1000 or so).

The pot now has T18,500, and I have about 37K.

Flop comes A /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif.

The small blind and the big blind both check to me.

I decided to push. My thinking (which may be horribly flawed, hence the post) was as follows:

(1) We're on the bubble, and everyone's been playing tight.
(2) I have 8 outs with two cards to come.
(3) The A /images/graemlins/spade.gif might be a scare card, and even if one of the blinds has an Ace, they can't feel great about calling in this spot.
(4) No one's shown any strength.
(5) A win here and I am in healthy chip position.

On the other hand,

(6) They called, so they at least had something.
(7) The all-in may look a little too much like I want them to fold (which I do).
(8) I'm awfully close to the money myself (although I'm willing to risk busting out if it improves my final table chances).

So was this arguably clever, mildly over-aggressive, or borderline suicidal?

Results later, unless I get, like, really badly flamed. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[TStoneMBD]

just because everyone else is minraising doesnt mean that you should follow along. i would make it 2.5x at this point in the tournament with table descriptions such as yours. aside from that i would prefer to bet something like 22k because if they have any intelligence whatsoever they will realize that this bet commits you to the pot and so it smells like you want them to call. i think you are just as likely to get them to fold with this size bet then a push. the added benefits of betting this size are that it forces them to commit 37k when you only commit 22k (if youre bluffing). If they decide only to call, you can buy a free card on the turn and fold the river if you dont improve.

[BigToga]

[ QUOTE ]
just because everyone else is minraising doesnt mean that you should follow along. i would make it 2.5x at this point in the tournament with table descriptions such as yours. aside from that i would prefer to bet something like 22k because if they have any intelligence whatsoever they will realize that this bet commits you to the pot and so it smells like you want them to call. i think you are just as likely to get them to fold with this size bet then a push. the added benefits of betting this size are that it forces them to commit 37k when you only commit 22k (if youre bluffing). If they decide only to call, you can buy a free card on the turn and fold the river if you dont improve.

[/ QUOTE ]This man's a genius - listen to him!

[tiger7210]

I think if you're not worried about busting out before the moneyline then its a good push. Since neither reraised you before the flop, that ace could be enough of a scare card to fold most hands. If you do get called you still have outs.

[mntbikr15]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
just because everyone else is minraising doesnt mean that you should follow along. i would make it 2.5x at this point in the tournament with table descriptions such as yours. aside from that i would prefer to bet something like 22k because if they have any intelligence whatsoever they will realize that this bet commits you to the pot and so it smells like you want them to call. i think you are just as likely to get them to fold with this size bet then a push. the added benefits of betting this size are that it forces them to commit 37k when you only commit 22k (if youre bluffing). If they decide only to call, you can buy a free card on the turn and fold the river if you dont improve.

[/ QUOTE ]This man's a genius - listen to him!

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed a much better play IMO then flat out pushing. I would feel even better about this if there was a heart on board. However the truth is more times then not all it takes is a follow up bet after an attempted steal to take down these pots.

The other thing that would play a role here is if I had a read on the players involved.

Interested in the results.

[zeitgeist]

Thank you all for your replies - they were most helpful.

[ QUOTE ]
just because everyone else is minraising doesnt mean that you should follow along.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree and have since stopped doing this.


[ QUOTE ]
i would prefer to bet something like 22k because if they have any intelligence whatsoever they will realize that this bet commits you to the pot and so it smells like you want them to call. i think you are just as likely to get them to fold with this size bet then a push. the added benefits of betting this size are that it forces them to commit 37k when you only commit 22k (if youre bluffing). If they decide only to call, you can buy a free card on the turn and fold the river if you dont improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do find this reasoning persuasive. I guess I've tended to adhere to the school of thought that says if I'm going to be pot-committed anyway, I might as well move all-in immediately. But I had position on this hand, which lends itself more to the above approach.

[ QUOTE ]
Interested in the results.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, only the small blind called. He turned over A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif and I failed to improve. He would have been crippled if I had drawn out (or had had a hand that beat top pair); I doubt I would have made that call in his shoes. C'est la vie.

[zaxx19]

I like the opponents flat call and I like the way he played post flop. In his mind he probably is saying if there is an ace on the board 99% IM getting in post flop. Instead of playing Raymer style and moving in preflop he is hedging his risk by seeing a flop. He then auto-checks knowing your 70-85% sure too fire at it(correct?) The he is gonna reraise all-in and hope yu have AQ or AJ. Why is this good? Bc this play traps AQ AJ A10 for all their chips , while hedging against a ragged flop helping a PP break him.