22 flops a set, too aggro on the river?

[Bodhi]

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (7 handed)

MP1 is TAG, and the Button is sLAP.

Preflop: Hero is CO with 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB checks.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, MP1 calls.

River: (9.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, <font color="CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15.75 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 15.75 BB, between MP1 and Hero.</font>

I saw the flush possibility, but honestly didn't care because I ought to win this pot at least 33% of the time. True?

[zuluking]

You must cap the river.

[milesdyson]

He should have raised the flop if he had spades, so I don't think it's a flush. However, I do think he might have a higher set than you and is trying to get bets out of you.

I would not cap this river because I'd be worried about an oddly played flush or the higher set.

[ncboiler]

[ QUOTE ]
He should have raised the flop if he had spades, so I don't think it's a flush. However, I do think he might have a higher set than you and is trying to get bets out of you.

I would not cap this river because I'd be worried about an oddly played flush or the higher set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not raising because fear of a higher set is very weak thinking. I can see not raising because of flush possiblities but not a higher set.

[Nick Royale]

Can't see why MP1 would just call the flop and then lead the turn if he's on a flushdraw. Especially with the flop raiser to his immediate left. And a slowplayed flopped set would go for the checkraise. A possible holding for MP1 is 66, but it's more likely to checkraise the turn. He's tight so I can't imagine he has the straight. To be honest I would not play any hand in the universe the way MP1 played this one. Not that I can think of...

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar till:</font><hr />
I saw the flush possibility, but honestly didn't care because I ought to win this pot at least 33% of the time. True?

[/ QUOTE ]

False. Button folds so you would have to take this down at least 50% of the time to raise and cap for value. if he got the flush, he's a fish. I'll cap this, hoping he's not.

[Bodhi]

You're right that I was hoping the button would call. A mistake I suppose.

As for the strangeness of MP1, I'm glad to hear you say that. He had: <font color="white">As Ts!</font>(&lt;-in white) Here's the stats I have on him over 129 hands: VPIP: 13.67 PFR: 6.47 TOTA:1.96
Go figure.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He should have raised the flop if he had spades, so I don't think it's a flush. However, I do think he might have a higher set than you and is trying to get bets out of you.

I would not cap this river because I'd be worried about an oddly played flush or the higher set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not raising because fear of a higher set is very weak thinking. I can see not raising because of flush possiblities but not a higher set.

[/ QUOTE ]
Like I said in my post, my only fear wasn't set over set. I also worried about an oddly played flush draw. If there was no flush on the board, I would definitely cap.