gamble or slide ITM?

[Apathy]

The chip leader had been very LAG the entire tourney probable hand range here is any overcards to 99 any pair and AK-A7. Any reraise here or stop n go is 100% going to be called.

NL Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:7474591 Level:5 Blinds(100/200) - Saturday, November 27, 06:37:55 EDT 2004
Table Table 11062 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 6: devincentis ( $4840 )
Seat 8: NasHBation ( $480 )
Seat 10: slick22 ( $1580 )
Seat 3: Apathy123 ( $1100 )
Trny:7474591 Level:5
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Apathy123 [ 9h 9s ]
devincentis raises [600].
NasHBation folds.
slick22 folds.
Apathy123 ????

[hyde]

I slide. extremely good chance of ITM. Still a good shot at 2nd.
Better than a coin flip that leaves you either out or with a small lead over 2nd place.
And there may be a math whiz ( more than a few on here) out there that can educate my "gut' instinct.

[Voltron87]

If the two big stacks are aggressive and will push on the SS's BBs I would fold. If not I might think about pushing all in. It really depends on who is raising you.

[Klak]

[ QUOTE ]
If the two big stacks are aggressive and will push on the SS's BBs I would fold. If not I might think about pushing all in. It really depends on who is raising you.

[/ QUOTE ]

he already said that the raiser was laggy. i would push here because i try to play for more first places. if you win you will be in good position to play for first. nines are most likly the best hand heads up vs a LAG. i dont know any more reasons you need to push here. the only thing that may make you think about folding is knowing that you will surly be called since you dont have enough chips to make him fold.

[1p0kerb0y]

Fold.

You have no fold equity here. It is probably a coin flip. Get into the money, and then gamble AS THE AGGRESSOR.

[Klak]

i agree that you have no fold equity here, but if you keep letting this lag run everyone over and folding you blinds down, you will have no chance to catch him and will most likly be playing for second. this is a very close situation and it's debatable what the right action is.

[Miscreant]

This is a pretty easy push for me with the read you have. Sure you will get more 4th's this way but the amount of times this helps you move from a slide into 3rd to a 2nd or 1st makes up for it, especially when you still are not guaranteed 3rd by folding. You also can't say that he will call 100% of the time, maybe 95%.

[Myst]

With the read he had, pushing is stupid!!!!!. Against those range of hands (A7-AK, two overcards, 99+) (18.8% of hands), 99 is only a favorite 52.48% of the time. There is alot to be said from being the first to push vs. calling a push. I rather push with 32o if I knew i had FE than call with 99 against a LAG.

Folding is the best move, both from an ITM perspective and ICM perspective.

[Apathy]

myst what I meant was that he could have any over cards over 9's and ANY pair, not only pairs 9's and up. Even given this fact I now think folding here is probably the correct play, but i think its quite close. In the hand I pushed and was called by AJo.

[ChrisV]

What I don't get is how you reckon the raiser is LAG but then his range of hands here is so tight. Maybe I'm LAG at the end but in a situation like this I'd be moving in with virtually any two.

Against an intelligent big stack this is very difficult as he's probably going to "baby" the short stack, folding SB's to him to keep him alive so he can keep bullying you guys. I'd probably make a stand here if I thought the big stack was intelligent. But if you reckon his range of hands is that tight, and that he's just going to raise the short stack allin, then fold.

[Miscreant]

Might have been incorrect using the phrase "with your read", what I really meant is Im not folding 99 preflop with 4 players left unless two are already allin.

[captZEEbo1]

slide, he's calling you any two. Most likely Ax, and that's only a 2:1 in your favorite. You're best off mucking in my book.