top pair no kicker in monster pot

[jdl22]

Here is a 1/2 hand from Pacific Poker. The SB seemed ok and the rest of the table was quite loose (apparently that's the norm on Pacific).

9 handed
preflop:
utg folds, 5 limpers, I limp with A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, sb completes, bb checks

8 to flop (/images/graemlins/shocked.gif) with 8 sb in pot

flop: 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
checked to CO who bets, I raise, SB 3 bets, 2 mp players call 3 cold, CO calls, I call

5 to turn with 11 bb pot (rake removed)

Turn: (8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif) 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
SB bets, mp1 calls, mp2 folds, co calls, I call

4 to river, 15 bb pot

River: (8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif) 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif
sb bets, mp calls, co fold, I raise, sb and mp call

showdown: 3 players, 21 bb pot

results to follow.

Here are my thoughts. I think the raise on the flop was standard, though I thought I was behind when I was 3 bet the pot was too big to fold. On the river I thought my 2 pair would be good more than 1/3 of the time and if they had gotten that far they would call with whatever they had so my hand would be good more than 1/3 of the time the raise was called.

[Ajax410]

This pot is huge so you cannot fold. If there existed a time to fold, however, it would have been on the turn.

Alex

[toss]

I wouldn't know about raising the flop. If the bettor has an ace, then he most likely has yuo beat. I think just calling would be better.

[jdl22]

I've done a couple simulations on twodimes.

On the flop assuming I'm behind to an ace with a better kicker here are the numbers:

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8s Ad 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 3s 171 17.27 807 81.52 12 1.21 0.179
Kc Ah 807 81.52 171 17.27 12 1.21 0.821

So I'm about a 4.6:1 dog assuming I go to the river. The pot at the time was offering 8:1 so clearly folding is out. I raised basically to make it more likely to win with 2 pair in this situation.

On the turn:
Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing 8s Ad 7h 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 3s 3 6.82 41 93.18 0 0.00 0.068
Kc Ah 41 93.18 3 6.82 0 0.00 0.932

So I'm a 13.70:1 dog getting 14:1. I'm not really accustomed to playing games so loose, getting these kinds of odds on the turn is pretty crazy.

[JDErickson]

I fold the turn. Your obviously going to need your 2 pair and may end up counterfeited.