Good time to steal?

[zephyr]

Blinds 100/200

UTG 445
Button ~5000
Hero (SB) 1400 (after posting)
Villain (BB) 1200 (after posting)

Folded to Hero in SB who hold T9o.

Push?

I guess the real question is: what range of hands does the typical BB call here with?

Zephyr

[MrMon]

I would say excellent time to steal, since this is a Bubble hand. BB is comfortably in third, UTG has less than two orbits left before being blinded out. BB will fold unless he has one heck of a hand, if he's at all rational. There is simply little reason to call with anything other than a large pocket pair, which he likely doesn't have.

In fact, it was an ideal time for the Button to steal for exactly the same reasons, but since he passed, take the opportunity.

[mackthefork]

It should be a good time but given that you called him villian I can only guess it ended badly, am I right? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Regards Mack

[tallstack]

I think that this is an excellent place to steal. The BB knows that UTG is posting almost half his stack on the very next hand. If there were no smaller stacks then the BB I would still push here, but the tiny stack UTG makes this a very easy decision IMO. Most players in the BB's situation will not want to call with anything but a very strong hand even though they know you are stealing.

Dave S

[stillnotking]

PUSH!

Big fold equity, and if you get called it will probably be by Ax or a pair, so you won't be utterly dominated.

[Myst]

Push. He'll call only with AJ+, KQ, 88+ (8.2% of hands), and that is assuming a loose goose! So 92% of the time, you're at 1700 chips, 8 % of time, you get called, and suck out 31.38% of the time and double up to 2800.

It doesn't take a math genius to see this is a profitible play in the long term. Always be an optimist when you push. Even against a strong range of hands, when you are caught, you are never really worse than 2-1. /images/graemlins/grin.gif