Really Simple 20/40 Turn Play?

[Rick Nebiolo]

Typical 20/40 holdem. Two loose limpers. I limp with 5s 5c on the button. SB folds and BB checks.

Flop is 4c 3d 2d. BB bets (he is a fairly decent but somewhat conservative player who knows my play). Both limpers fold. I decide to call because I was relatively sure I was up against a better made hand and would be facing a reraise. Don’t ask why, this post is about the turn.

The turn comes an offsuit ace. The BB bets.

What is my best play and why?

All I’ll say is that I made the wrong play and after thinking about it I believe it isn’t close.

~ Rick

[tolbiny]

"he is a fairly decent but somewhat conservative player who knows my play"

Well shoot rick, i don't know your play.
If the BB knows that you are aggressive and expects you to semi bluff scary boards and such- he might suspect a flush draw in your hand or a straight bluff and pay you off (he might even three bet if the A made him two pair or whatever, but that wasn't your read). There are also a lot of cards that can scare him away from betting the river- flush cards, other big cards above his PP (if he has one)- ii think that raiseing here will smell like a bluff often enough to get called down.

Unless of course the "conservative side of him is the dominant side and he will just fold to the turn raise, even when somewhat suspecting a bluff.
The conservative side may also push him to checking the river no matter what it is, which is another case for raising the turn.

[Gabe]

I would have called the turn if I were you.

[mike l.]

you should call the turn. given your image youre not going to make much off the guy anyway if he has any brains so it doesnt matter much either way. speaking of image though that was a nice play you made with the 99 the other night against that girl. you should post that hand.

[tolbiny]

What is Rick's image? And is there a difference between his table image and what this particular guy thinks (ie "he knows how i play")

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
that was a nice play you made with the 99 the other night against that girl. you should post that hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm too worn down to be a good note taker (plus i can't read my own writing) and it was too much of an italian gabfest anyway at our end of the table. if you remember it you post it or email me the outline of the hand and i'll post it - remember i'm semi-senile.

besides, i'd rather post my mistakes (but that was a good non nit play take that clarkmeister! /images/graemlins/grin.gif)

~ rick

[bobbyi]

You say that he knows your play. But I don't know your play, so I don't feel like I have enough information to predict what will happen if you raise. Does knowing your play mean that he has seen you semibluff and knows that you are capable of making a move against a known conservative player when a scary card hits, like an ace that also puts a four-straight on board? If so, you are clearly betting better off raising since he will call you down and you will pick up three bets rather than the two you would likely get by calling if he has something like 88, since a conservative player will grit his teeth and bet the turn, but will never value bet the river here unless he helps. Does knowing your play mean that he would expect you to have raised preflop with most hands you play containing an ace, and he expects the only hand you would likely play here containing a 5 is specifically 55, but you probably don't have that since you didn't raise the flop? There are lots of ways that I can imagine raising being best.

OTOH, I can at least as easily imagine calling being best since he is merely a "decent" player and is conservative, which probably means that he will reluctantly fold a pocket pair here when the ace hits and you raise the turn, but will also pay off on the river if you call the turn.

I'm not particularly advocating either a call or a raise. I'm mainly trying to argue that without player knowledge that most of us don't have here, I really can't see this decision as being one that "isn't close". It looks like it could be pretty darn close to me.

[Noo Yawk]

Hi Rick,

I think you need to check. If he isn't scared of the straight, then he is of the Ace. Next time, spike a 6. That way you make get some action /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

[James282]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Rick,

I think you need to check. If he isn't scared of the straight, then he is of the Ace. Next time, spike a 6. That way you make get some action /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree - trying to check after someone has bet into you might change your image so you can get more action from hands like this.
-James

[Noo Yawk]

Duh, I meant call. I really shouldn't post hung-over.

[mike l.]

he's a nit. a senile nit.

[tolbiny]

Ohhh, then just call. It avoids the emabarresment of throwing out to many or two few chips for the raise anyway.

[El Dukie]

[ QUOTE ]
All I’ll say is that I made the wrong play and after thinking about it I believe it isn’t close.



[/ QUOTE ]

I take it you raised and he folded? Heads-up with position, call the turn and pop the river. He may check the river if you just call the turn, but he'll probably be obliged to call a bet from you since a check would indicate weakness on his part. You may get 3BB out of him by calling/raising, vs. likely only 1BB by raising immediately.

The only question is whether he likes to play his drawing hands fast. If you think he's betting the flush draw, then raising the turn may be better (get the money in while he's still drawing). You say he's "conservative" though, so I doubt he's the kind to make a lot of semi-bluffs -- besides, your read was that he had a made hand of some sort. So calling the turn is correct.

[andyfox]

Your flop call, one would think, would put the fear of god into him. Now he continues to bet when an ace comes. I'd put him on 6-5 and give him two crying calls.

Thanks for a nice day today.

Andy

[Zeno]

Call.

My God, Rick - Stop watching so many movies and read some H.L. Mencken. If you did that, soon you would be a terror at the table and the nit image would fall off you like scales from a decaying fish. Trust me. This is fairly good advice and I hate giving good advice, its aganist my nature.

Le Misanthrope

[Tommy Angelo]

call

[SA125]

Call

[Rick Nebiolo]

i raised and lost him as he tossed away a middle pair asking "hit the ace again?". he's an information leaker, i'm not but wish i was a better information rememberer.

realize i needed to profile this guy better. he is someone when not on tilt "tries to play well" in the sense he tightens up in the wrong way e.g., he doesn't follow through with bluffs, doesn't bet the flop and then the turn head up with draws, and tries to make "good laydowns" against me because he perceives me as someone who seldom bluffs (not true but i never show a bluff).

with this profile i think it is a clear call. he is unlikely to bet the draw twice and probably would have checked called my near nut hand on the end with any pair.

otoh he could have a set or two pair or even ace with a pair and now i make more with the raise. maybe i'm both playing and posting "results".

~ rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for a nice day today.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pleasure was mine. Glad I got to see your car on the way out to valet, it's one of the neatest looking new ones I've seen. Gotta get one after quadrupling (or maybe sextupling) my income /images/graemlins/grin.gif

~ Rick

PS Might post that hand I flashed to you (normally bad etiquette, I know) and then lied about if I don't run out of steam before going back to bed.

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not particularly advocating either a call or a raise. I'm mainly trying to argue that without player knowledge that most of us don't have here, I really can't see this decision as being one that "isn't close". It looks like it could be pretty darn close to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are right. i redid the profile in the results posted below. used to have more time to write up my lead posts and should return to a "post less but post with more complete information" strategy.

~ rick

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
should return to a "post less but post with more complete information" strategy.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm sure I speak for most of the forum when I say that you should instead adopt a "post more and with more information strategy" /images/graemlins/cool.gif.