Calling with AKo

[PrayingMantis]

Hi all,

Well, I'm back I guess, took a little forum-break. This is from a $55+5 on stars.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="C00000">Hero (t2475)</font>
SB (t4070)
BB (t1685)
UTG (t2695)
<font color="C00000">MP (t2575)</font>

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">MP raises to t2575</font>, Hero...

MP is a bit on the LAG side, but not too much. This is his second time pushing PF, but the first time was significantly earlier, when he had a relatively short stack.

Some more about the game: It's not a particularly tough field. UTG is an OK player, SB is half-maniac, BB is loose-passive. Any interesting thoughts about this situation?

[mackthefork]

Most of the time I will be putting this down, however if you believe theres a strong possiblilty that either SB or BB call as well, preferably with something you dominate, then it could be a good opportunity to accumulate a winning stack. Given the relative stack positions a money finish is not guaranteed by any means.

What do you think?

Regards Mack

[Bigwig]

This is a tough one. I think you can rule out large pocket pairs. He's most likely overbetting with something he's confident he can win with, but is afraid of either a reraise from someone using their folding equity, or playing a hand that is difficult after the flop if it doesn't hit. So, mid pocket pairs are probable, as well as hands like ATs, AJ, AQ, etc. It's such an overbet, and your stack sizes are so similar, that I might let this one go.

But, the fact that he may have some Ax hand makes me think that the odds may balance this out. I probably call.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
if you believe theres a strong possiblilty that either SB or BB call as well

[/ QUOTE ]

Very small chance for this, I think. *Maybe* one of them will call with AQ, very small chances of AJ, but I really can't be sure of it. I can see even some very bad players mucking AQ after 2 all-ins at this buy-in, if it's for a big portion of their stack or all of it.

I'd say that calling here with AKo is definitely +chipEV (depending, of course, on the range of pushing hands), but not hugely so. The problem is that you risk your whole stack in this point for what is basically not much more than the blinds (i.e, that's about the CEV), which are not that high now, and you have 0 FE, which is always a significant part of your EV when you raise as opposed to call (that's why pushing with garbage is sometimes much better than calling with OK hands). I can see good reasons for calling and for mucking, that's why I'm interested in discussing it.

[_RD]

[ QUOTE ]
I can see even some very bad players mucking AQ after 2 all-ins at this buy-in, if it's for a big portion of their stack or all of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you explain this statement? Why would a very bad player muck AQ after 2 all-ins? Wouldn't AQ most likely be dominated in this situation? Not to mention if going up against any A and an underpair, one of his outs is eaten also.

[mackthefork]

Well I put you UTG down for pushing AJ+ ATs+ and pocket pairs 66-JJ, I think that most people will play the big ones slower, though I coud be way off here. If this range is accurate you rank 55% vs his 45%, if you think he does the same with QQ KK and AA it is still 52/48 in your favour plus you have the SB and BB as well, so its +365 and +209 CEV respectively, it 'feels' like your CEV and dollar EV should be quite close together at this stage, if this is the case it seems calling is the correct option.

Regards Mack

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can see even some very bad players mucking AQ after 2 all-ins at this buy-in, if it's for a big portion of their stack or all of it.


[/ QUOTE ] Could you explain this statement? Why would a very bad player muck AQ after 2 all-ins? Wouldn't AQ most likely be dominated in this situation? Not to mention if going up against any A and an underpair, one of his outs is eaten also.

[/ QUOTE ]

I said it in reply to mack's suggestion that if I think SB or BB will call with dominated hands, then calling in my position with AKo is good.

You are correct of course that AQ is a bad hand to call after two all-ins, and that was my exact point: I think that even some pretty bad players realize this, and would muck AQ. I didn't say that "a bad player would muck AQ", as many bad players will call with AQ, but it's bad enough move that I can even see some bad players who won't do it. I hope my wording is now more clear. This becomes more of a logical-grammatical problem now... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[_RD]

OK, good. I was just thinking that maybe there was some good reason to call with AQ that I had no idea about /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[mackthefork]

Come on guys lets get some decent replys on this thread, admit it its the most interesting question you've seen on here for days,and not as simple as it first seems, if you don't I'm gonna keep doing Thunder Keller impressions all night /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

Regards Mack

[tallstack]

This is a pretty interesting situation IMO. I am guessing that in terms of of $EV you will likely have to win around 55% of the time to come out ahead (I don't have a 5 player ICM or any other way to calc $EV for this). The half maniac behind you may also join in a small percentage of the time here since he has you both covered by a fair amount. This may work against you slightly.

A lot comes down to what you believe about the raiser. In his position, I would be more inclined to push rather than a standard raise due to the SB maniac. If he would push 25% or more of hands here then this should become a clear call. I believe that I would push at somewhere around this amount in this situation. At any rate, I don't think this is going to be very large +$EV unless he is quite loose.

The counter argument regarding the toughness of the table and the high risk of busting on this hand is valid IMO. If you believe that you can steal a fair amount of the time against this lineup then the call becomes less desirable.

From the info you gave I would call this. It's just too good of a hand based on my guess of the raiser's standards.

Dave S

[Sluss]

The first question I have is has the maniac been calling big raises for next to no reason at all? And has he done it to MP?

Unless there has been lots of large bet calls at the table this sounds like the type of hand that wants to win now, but will be a coinflip if called. I would say at a normal table this is small pp 33-1010 or AK, AQ and being that you are holding AK I would think small pp. So now its do you want to gamble.

If there has been large calls thoughout (especially by the maniac) this could be a trap AA KK QQ push. With a tricky MP who is trying to trap a maniac and you just got caught in the middle.

I am I giving my opponents too much credit?

[FishBurger]

I say fold. There's a good chance you are against a pocket pair which means you are behind and will be less than 50% to stay in the tourney. The blinds are small in relation to your stack which means you can still afford to wait around for better opportunities than what could be a coin flip.

Furthermore, if either the SB or BB has an ace, they might call. If the original bettor has a pocket pair, then, given that you also have an ace, the SB or BB will be way behind and will likely get knocked out. If the SB or BB calls with a pocket pair and the villian raised with an ace, you are, once again, a big dog.

Given how small the blinds are in relation to your stack, and the fact that the SB and BB are still left to act, I think folding is correct here.

Furthermore, I heard Phil Gordon say on Celebrity Poker the other day that "it is almost never correct to call off your stack." I think that is a pretty good rule.

[stillnotking]

Very well reasoned response. You convinced me, my gut said "call". But it's probably best to wait for an edge of 60/40 rather than the 55/45 (or worse) that you are getting here.

[PrayingMantis]

Thanks for the interesting replies. For me this question comes down to how big is my edge at this table, specifically against the stack/s acting right behind me. Against two medium-stacks, relatively tight players, I think I have enough edge to muck this hand and go for aggressive play later on. The $EV I get by calling here could be smaller than what I could gain later on, against such opposition.

However, the fact that I have a big stack acting right behind my in this table, combined with the fact he's not particulatly tight, puts me in not such a great situation, for the rest of the game. I think it's a rather close one, even though I think calling here is +CEV, no doubt. I really think it's very much about the chips-distribution in the table, with regard to exact positions and behaviour of players. In this case I called. MP had 66 and I didn't improve.

[The Yugoslavian]

Mantis,

I think the move here is to fold and my analysis is as follows (using ICM and assuming the SB and BB don't get involved):

Folding: .1914 or $95.70

The widest (and weakest) range of hands I think you could put this guy on if he's very LAG is any A, any PP and any two cards T+.

You will win ~63.18% of the time and now have a .3219 $EV. This translates to calling $EV of .20337 or $101.68.

This is a difference in $EV of ~$6 -- a bit mroe than 1% of the prize pool. Now, IMHO this is the best case scenario (giving your opp. a very wide range of hands to be pushing with) and you're $EV isn't all that spectacular. From what you've said (and you're posting history) you are most likely quite a bit better than the table and will be able to leverage your skill for a bigger or clearer edge later on.

Your hand is great to push if no one has already pushed but I don't think calling is that great (of course, it's not going to be a huge mistake either -- but can very likely be a mistake if your opp is at all tight). Hell, even if your opponent is pushing any K in this situation your $EV is only $13. I'd only call if he was a known maniac weirdo (and even then I might pass).

I'm very welcome to other views as this definitely looks like a close call. I think that the blinds just are too small though at this point and your stack is too healthy.

Hope I've been helpful, /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

[PrayingMantis]

Thanks for your thoughts. You make some good points. As you can see from another post of mine in this thread (with the result of the hand) my thinking process was pretty similar. And when you say about calling that it

[ QUOTE ]
can very likely be a mistake if your opp is at all tight

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you. But the fact that loose big-stack is acting right behind me in this table, which reduces my stealing EV in this game, made me think calling is a better choice, especially since it's no doubt +CEV for this particular hand.

I'd like to make two more points: Calculating $EV for such spots takes more, IMO, than putting the numbers into the ICM calculator, since, as you realize, the positions, stacks and general edge of one's player at the table could significantly change the profitability of a specific move, with regard to future possibilites (as opposed to direct CEV calculation). Another point is, that the fact that I'm (probably) the best player in the table, does not mean I should give up clear +CEV spots, even when the risk is quite big. The blinds are not huge, but not low (BB is about 1/12 my stack), and being the big stack if I win this hand could mean more than what the ICM shows, especially if I know how to handle a big stack on the bubble.

But I agree it could be close, and that some times folding is probably better for me here.

[Jason Strasser]

PM,

I must play a different game than you play. Generally when an average opponent makes this move, its with a mid-pocket pair or AT-AK type hand, or even worse. The blinds are 100/200 now, and are sure to go up shortly. Your competition would have to be pretty terrible to consider folding this hand IMO. Your opponent does not have to have AQ or AJ very often here for this call to be completely worth your while.

Come to think of it, I really dont see myself ever making this type of fold. If you win the hand, then you (a good player) has a big stack to work with, which often will lead to many firsts. Throw the entire ICM crap out the window for now, you need chips to win a SNG. Against the likely range of hands your opponent has here, AK is a profitable call. Folding, in my view, would be a situation like folding AA preflop. Sure there would be extreme circumstances where it is correct, but in this spot you'd need an incredible mix of weak tight players who'd just hand you their blind all day to make this fold correct.

Forgive me for not getting deeper into this hand, as I really don't see the depth. I try to find good spots to get my chips in during a SNG, and this spot looks real good. I'd be rich if I could commit my chips in a spot like this every sit and go.
-Jason

[stupidsucker]

Perhaps I need to work on this in my game because I call this every time without hesitation.

Very few exceptions apply for me.

[PrayingMantis]

Jason,

While your approach does not suprise me a bit, and I actually agree that it's a call the majority of the time, I think that some of the points you make are problematic with regard to this hand. I believe that part of it is a result from you being a 215 player, struggling to keep even a one-figure ROI, and in such enviroment this is obviously an auto-call. I must tell you, though, that my ROI in this particular game is about 35%, and therefore, my game will naturally be different (maybe very different) from yours.

To adress some of your points:

[ QUOTE ]
Your opponent does not have to have AQ or AJ very often here for this call to be completely worth your while.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, yes he does. I don't know exactly what you mean by "very often", but my edge in this point comes from MP pushing with weaker aces some of the time, and not from him pushing with PPs. FWIW, I put him on pretty much *any* pocket-pair, and a few aces.

[ QUOTE ]
If you win the hand, then you (a good player) has a big stack to work with, which often will lead to many firsts.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not really relevant, as you can say it about any hand you call and win, even if you're a complete dog. If you win you win. Of course, if you win your situation is great. But do you make this call with AQ, AJ, AT, 77? Do you call here with AKo when you *know* your opp has 33?

[ QUOTE ]
Throw the entire ICM crap out the window for now, you need chips to win a SNG.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I said in another post here, I think the ICM is not very helpful with regard to analyzing this hand, so I'm completely ready to throw it out of the window. And of course I need chips to win. But as always, it's a question of edge/risk, against a particular player/field.

[ QUOTE ]
Against the likely range of hands your opponent has here, AK is a profitable call.

[/ QUOTE ]

No doubt, that in term of chipEV it's profitable. The interesting question is how +EV it is with comparison to other opportunities you'll have at this game. I don't know if you're aware of the turbo's format, but the blinds go up every fixed amount of time (5 mins). When it's short handed, it could take quite a lot of hands, if the play is fast enough. Another point that I feel you're not aware of, is that the next level of blinds is 100/200, with 25 ante, which is actually very similar to this level. There's certainly some room for play.

[ QUOTE ]
Folding, in my view, would be a situation like folding AA preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is crazy and I'm sure you know that, and not really belive such nonsense. I understand you write such things only to make your point extremely clear, but IMHO, it does not help your arguments. It's very simple: when you call here with AKo, you're a (small) dog the big majority of the time. Very very different from calling with big pocket-pairs.

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be rich if I could commit my chips in a spot like this every sit and go.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe that against certain types of opposition, with specific positions and stacks, you *might* get richer if you sometimes fold this, and go for slightly better opportunities down the road.

I might be wrong of course, but that's how I see it. I agree that many times (probably most of the time) it's a call, but there are certainly situations, for me at least, where I'll consider folding this. As opposed to you, I do think this is an interesting hand, for a few reasons, even if it's an auto-call in your view.

However, Just as an illustration:

When blinds are 200/400, and you're on the SB against a tight "survivor" BB, about your size (and certainly smaller) with a small stack around for instance, your CEV of pushing with pretty much any two is probably higher than calling here with AKo. And sometimes you have to choose between the two.

Again, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your position, I only think there are few more ways to look at it. As I've mentioned, I called in this spot, and I didn't think it was very close. But I'm sure there are situations where it's closer.