2nd Pair, powerful draw. Take one off?

[Bigdaddydvo]

Early in a Party $10 SNG w/blinds 10/15

Fold, call, or push?

I'm in MP1 w/K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif and open raise to 50. MP2 calls, the button calls, and BB also calls leaving 200 chips in the pot. Flop:

A /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Giving me 2nd pair w/nut flush draw. BB bets out 200. I figure I'm almost certainly behind here, but have many chances to improve.

A)Push (might be behind, but have some fold equity
B)Fold (it is pretty early, after all)
C)Call and figure out what to do on the turn.

Thoughts?

[AceDigger]

I could be wrong on my math here, but with three other players in the hand, the probablility that someone has the flush after the flop is about 12%. The A is a more likely possibility, but combined with your draws to the nut flush and the admittedly less likely set of Ks I feel this is a great time to semi-bluff raise(although perhaps not push in). This is definately true if you think the BB may using the suited board to try to steal the pot. I would raise to 2.5x his original bet and see what type of response I get.
The other option is to fold, as it is early on, and most would prefer not to risk their chips this early in an unsure situation.
Calling is most likely the wrong option, as it leaves you unsure of what to do on the turn if a blank falls and faced with the decision of calling another bet, hoping for some help on the river.

[Unarmed]

Your FE is high enough on that type of board to make pushing the correct choice IMO.

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=630499
pokenum -h ad qs - kd kh -- ah jh 4h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ah Jh 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Ad 565 57.07 425 42.93 0 0.00 0.571
Kd Kh 425 42.93 565 57.07 0 0.00 0.429

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=630501
pokenum -h ad js - kd kh -- ah jh 4h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ah Jh 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Ad 592 59.80 398 40.20 0 0.00 0.598
Kd Kh 398 40.20 592 59.80 0 0.00 0.402

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=630500
pokenum -h ad ks - kd kh -- ah jh 4h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ah Jh 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Ad 588 59.39 393 39.70 9 0.91 0.598
Kd Kh 393 39.70 588 59.39 9 0.91 0.402

[Bigdaddydvo]

Ultimately, I wussed out called (probably incorrect) figuring the implied odds were pretty decent if I hit my draw. A blank fell, and BB pushed, so I folded. BB showed A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif so I was correct in figuring that I was behind. I don't think BB would have folded to an all in since they could fill up by the river.

[Myst]

I disagree that he has any folding equity. The fact that he open raised and got bet into *screams* at least TP, and probably a little better.

I like folding here. Why put money into the middle if you know you have the worst hand and you can't get him to fold it? Its obvious that he bet it b/c hes afraid of the 4th heart coming. If he did the *standard* play of checking to the raiser, he would have risked a catastrophic free card if the original raiser (you) checked. So he bet the pot to protect his hand.

You arent going to get any action when that 4th heart comes. Its pretty obvious what you are drawing to. Fold.

[Bigdaddydvo]

Probably the best analysis I've seen so far. Thanks.

[Unarmed]

Pushing is EV+ if he folds 15% of the time here.
I find low level players are supreme calling stations *except* when there's a 3 flush on the board, where they're always capable of making horrid laydowns. But maybe thinking he folds TPTK or top two pair here 15% of the time is wishful thinking...

[Paragon]

Completely agree with Myst here. With blinds so low, the 200 bet on the flop is a loud and polite request not to chase the flush because you are behind. It also seems large enough that he will call an allin. In that case, tough luck but fold. Only other option, which I don't suggest, is pushing... Calling or not raising enough to put you allin would be the worst since it cripples you.