I play GOOOOD!

[Daliman]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (3 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t6500)
SB (t930)
BB (t2570)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t6500 (All-In)</font>, SB calls t780 (All-In), BB calls t2270 (All-In).

Flop: (t10000) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players, 3 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t10000) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players, 3 all-in)</font>

River: (t10000) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players, 3 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t10000
<font color="green">Main Pot: t2790 (t2790), between Hero, SB and BB.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by Hero (t2790).</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: t3280 (t3280), between Hero and BB.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by Hero (t3280).</font>
<font color="green">Pot 3: t3930 (t3930), returned to Hero.</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
SB has 8d Ks (one pair, nines).
BB has Jd Ad (one pair, nines).
Hero has 6h 2d (two pair, nines and sixes).
Outcome: Hero wins t10000. </font>


My emotions play by play, told through smileys...
/images/graemlins/crazy.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/ooo.gif /images/graemlins/blush.gif /images/graemlins/cool.gif /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[ChrisV]

Where's the option "obvious"?

[Bremen]

I dunno if its obvious. We'd really need some info on the BB before saying that. IE if he's likely to call with any two its moronic. If he's tight enough its very much obvious.

[stupidsucker]

sorry daliman, I dont like this one much.

You are already in fine running for 1st place, you are way ahead of the blinds, and you only have 450 chips to gain from the steal. If you do lose you lower your chances considerably for 1st place. If you get called and win I guess you increase your chances, but its not exactly a lock.

[Daliman]

The guy in the BB was playing standard poker. With the stacks exactly where they are and all things being equal, I will make this play every single time. I know most of you understand what I am doing, but look at all sides of it before passing judgement.

[ZeeJustin]

This play is fine the majority of the time, but I think Daliman is mentally insane for thinking the play is not opponent dependant (and to a lesser extent, image dependant). There is absolutely no reason to make this play if you suspect the BB will call with a wide range of hands.

[curtains]

It's close but I'd prefer to have at least 63o so that I have overcards in case the SB has 22.

[curtains]

Anyway if you are in a spot where it's very obvious that you are bullying the players and have shown a history as such in the past few hands, then I might pass on this one. If it was 4 handed and the guy on the cutoff just folded I'd be more likely to steal as players would play more tightly in that spot (Because diff of 2nd+3rd is smaller than diff of 3rd+4th, and because everyone hates to finish out of the money)

[stupidsucker]

I would like to know why its a "brillant move" then.

According to the ICM this is barely a break even move. The blinds are just so tiny still. I would agree 100% if this were level 6 instead of level 5. And my calculations are based on only a 4.2% chance of getting called by each opponent. ITM their calling standards are going to be much much lower then that.

I used to be this aggressive, but now I dont bother pushing with hands this low when the blinds are still skimpy.

[Gotmilk]

[ QUOTE ]
It's close but I'd prefer to have at least 63o so that I have overcards in case the SB has 22.

[/ QUOTE ]

you can't be serious! you know how close of an all-in it would have to be to use this as the kicker? anyways all in is fine, but with SB so short a fold is fine too. you are the chip leader all roads lead to rome and any player can be good...it depends more on how your opponents are playing, your read on what they need to call, and how you've been playing. why shouldnt 62o win anyways?

[DoctorJ]

One other point that makes me not like this so much (and I definitely understand your reasoning). If the BB is reasonably solid as you state, he may also know that you're likely to make this move with any 2 cards. If he's been watching you closely, it may lower his calling standards immensely if he's interested in 1st place money rather than 2nd (which is a bigger jump, of course).

If he doubles through you, you two are even.

And, if the planets align right and the SB calls first, and he gets his money in with the best hand (as, I might point out, he did here), then he may emerge from the hand as a 60-40 favorite. I realize this doesn't happen often, but combined with the above reason I really don't like the play.

Just my 2 cents...

Doctor J

[Daliman]

First off, let me say that I was VERY aware of the fact that my WORST-CASE scenario here was being headsup with 3930 chips.

Now then, since you all have failed to bow to my greater magnifiscence, I shall show you EXACTLY why this is a brilliant play, even if I were called is this exact fashion 70% OF THE TIME!

I'm VERY confident that the difference in actual $$$ EV, NOT chip EV, is less than 5% even in this most extreme of circumstances. I may or may not be able to factor properly for the short stack's effect on mine, but I'll try. The medium stack for me is obviously my main concern.

ok, first the $$$ ev of our stacks to begin with

Mine T6500=.4241 EV or $848.20
BB T2570=.3275 EV or $655.00
SB T930 =.2484 EV or $496.80


Ok, let's go with the ludicrously low % chance of me stealing both as only 30%(closer to 80% in my experience, but I'll humor you), that means 30% of the time THIS is the $$$ EV after a steal.

Me T6950=.4348
BB T2270=.3217
SB T780 =.2435

Ok, now, I'm going to ONLY calculate vs BOTH calling 70% of the time, as obviously any action by the BB is HIGHLY dependant upon the actions of the SB, and vice versa to a much lesser extent. So here goes.

6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif vs. A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif vs. K /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif=

6h2d wins 22%
AdJd wins 48%
Ks8d wins 30%

Ok, first, figuring for my results: 22% of the time I win and have 10k in chips so chip EV is 2200 for that alone
Second, figuring if I beat the BB, but not the SB,

Bah, i dont know how to figure for that.

EASTY!

Ok, going quick and dirty then, hopefully these #'s jive somewhat. CAUTION! HACK MATH AHEAD!

Ok, lets look at it like this. There is effectively 6070 in the pot, of which one player is eligible for only 2790 of. So it seems to me, factoring him first, his chip EV for this hand is then worth .30x2790=837.

Ok, it may get a bit hairy from here, but I'll try to check my math as I go along( /images/graemlins/crazy.gif )

Ok, both myself and the BB are eligible for the full 6070 at risk, so
My Chip EV = .22x6070=1335
BB's Chip EV = .48x6070=2914

Then 837+1335+2914 SHOULD equal 6070, but it's only 5086, so I'll refigure for the main pot using our two hands vs each other. He is 2-1 fave HU vs my hand. I will also remove SB's EV from the equation, and see if that helps....

My Chip EV = .33x5193=1714
BB's chip EV = .67X5193=3479

1714+3479+837=600

Ok, I'm off by 40 still, so since it obviously cant be SB's Ev, i'm going to split the 40 2-1 to BB, so now

My EV 1727+3930=5657
BB EV 3506
SB EV 837
Which is the EV 70% of the time. I added 3930 to MY EV since this was not at risk, being the absolute minimum i could end the hand with.

Ok, going back to the 30% steal #'s, we have;

Me T6950 x.30=2085
BB T2270 x.30=681
SB T780 x.30=234

The 70% called #'s(somewhat fudged, Easty will sort out my mess if I'm off by a ton, right /images/graemlins/laugh.gif ?)

Me T5657 x.70=3960
BB T3506 x.70=2454
SB T837 x.70=586

So then;

My total chip EV is 2085+3960=T6045
BB's "" "" EV is 681 +2454=T3135
SB's "" "" EV is 234 +586 =T820

So the $$$ EV's are

Me T6045=.4144 or $828.80
BB T3135=.3448 or $689.60
SB T820 =.2409 or $481.80

Compared to the prehand $ EV's from above;
Mine T6500=.4241 EV or $848.20
BB T2570=.3275 EV or $655.00
SB T930 =.2484 EV or $496.80

So, IF I am called 70% of the time by BOTH stacks in this exact situation I am giving up just under $20 in EV, only 2.5% of my total EV. Mind you, I dont like giving away EV, but as you can see, even in an EXTREME example, m play is not far off(if my math isn't too far off, which could be the devil of the details.) Notice also that the Sb gives up $15 in EV by this call, a much larger % of HIS EV, even thought he has a far paperior hand to mine. Finally, notice that even thought the BB is making an EXTREMELY favorable call 70% of the time, he's only gaining about $35 in $$$ equity.
This doesn't even factor in the fact that my chips are worth more since I play better than my opponents, but that effect is lessened as blinds get deeper anyways.

From the #'s I have come up with for Hand Ev, it seems I could easily factor for 30% calling here too, so I will;

My Chip EV is (6950x.70)=4865 + (5657x.30)=1697
4865+1697=T6562

So even if I am called 30% of the time in this bad of shape, I show a profit of T62, (and I know chances are WAY less).

Abcolute worst case scenario is me getting called 100% of the time and ending up with the T5657 on average, Which is stil $810.80 in $$$ EV, only ~ a $38 drop, STILL less than a 5% $$$ EV loss overall, again, not factoring the fact that chips are worth more in the hands of better players.


Damn, if these #'s are NEAR right, i really should start charging you people for this kind of insight. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
I would like to know why its a "brillant move" then.

According to the ICM this is barely a break even move. The blinds are just so tiny still. I would agree 100% if this were level 6 instead of level 5. And my calculations are based on only a 4.2% chance of getting called by each opponent. ITM their calling standards are going to be much much lower then that.

I used to be this aggressive, but now I dont bother pushing with hands this low when the blinds are still skimpy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Something you forget to factor in. Since I have the most chips, I can easiest afford marginal situations. I lose a marginal situation, i still have either 40 or 81% of all chips in play. I win, I get 100%. They lose, they're done.
They win, one still likely loses, and have no guarantees on higher placement.

Put another way, if I said to you, let's flip a coin for $100 a time, until one of us runs out of money, and you had $100 to start and I had $200, I'm going to win this bet 2 out of 3 times even though the odds are 50/50. Same exact reason why casinos give 100x odds in craps. Variance is the friend of the bankrolled when there is only one winner. I push every edge I can get, no matter how small, when I have the power at the table.

[Gotmilk]

[ QUOTE ]
Variance is the friend of the bankrolled when there is only one winner. I push every edge I can get, no matter how small, when I have the power at the table.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dali, this thinking is wrong. If losing one hand prevents you from getting a better situation later, then you have cost yourself EV. For example, if you have $100 and someone offers to $110 to $100 odds you'd pass if you knew you could get $500 to $100 in an hour from another guy. It's not worth the risk of losing. I'm not saying thats the case in this situation, but always pushing any small edge in a tournament is clearly wrong.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Variance is the friend of the bankrolled when there is only one winner. I push every edge I can get, no matter how small, when I have the power at the table.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dali, this thinking is wrong. If losing one hand prevents you from getting a better situation later, then you have cost yourself EV. For example, if you have $100 and someone offers to $110 to $100 odds you'd pass if you knew you could get $500 to $100 in an hour from another guy. It's not worth the risk of losing. I'm not saying thats the case in this situation, but always pushing any small edge in a tournament is clearly wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I read Sklansky too, Milky.

Ok, please explain in this situation what BETTER situation I am going to be prevented from profiting from later? I don't remember saying I always push every tiny edge at every point, I remember saying;
[ QUOTE ]
I push every edge I can get, no matter how small, when I have the power at the table.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you misunderstood my meaning by "the power". By "the power" I mean the Big stack, not just the inherent power to push any small edge.



You know better....

[Gotmilk]

You have 62o. Next button you might get AKo. This is a much better situation to be called in 2 spots with. In fact just about anything you could be dealt will be better than 62o. You will only have 450 chips less than this go around. You must compare the opportunity cost of moving in now vs the the +EV of the exact same situation except with an average hand instead of the worst possible hand. It doesn't matter if you are the biggest stack or the smallest stack. In tournaments you must evaluate opportunity cost. QED.