when raising an overpair isn't correct?

[pointcount]

I posted this within someone elses thread about 88 but I thought it warrants a new thread and am interested to know if I'm just speaking garbage here or there is some merit in this theory.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds.

River: (10.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, SB folds.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

Correct me if I'm wrong but this is a situation where sometimes raising the flop is not the correct option, you dont have sufficient pot equity to warrant it with this many callers. If the turn card is a rag card then your pot equity goes up quite considerably. This turn card is horrible and you're best to check/fold here.

If the turn was not a threatening card, your pot equity will increase and you have better admission to raise to try and protect your hand.

Does anyone disagree with this theory with hero's holdings and this flop?

[DMBFan23]

if the pot were larger, and it were impossible to protect your hand, then yes I would say just call the flop. however, I think a flop raise protects your hand nicely from hands like bottom pair, and one overcard. therefore, well played.

you are correct, however, that the turn card will drastically affect your hand's value

[Ajax410]

If I recall correctly from SSH/TOP (not sure which), this is a prime example of when you should wait until the turn to raise since the turn is likely to change the strength of your hand drastically.

At a typically passive table, I don't know how much the raise is likely to protect your hand against overcards - which is why waiting until the turn might be a better idea.

That having been said, I think I often will raise here, hope to buy the button, and hope a scare card doesn't hit - unfortunately, most of the time it does...

Alex

[fflyer]

Surely if you raise here, you are making it mathematically incorrect for the two players who have not yet bet to call with just overcards?

[Ajax410]

You are absolutely right. But, if you're at a passive table, and we assume that the guy holding ATo is going to call no matter what, and the guy holding KQo is also going to call...don't forget the J9s guy who slips in...he's always going to call with that backdoor flush draw...you're raising in a situation where most cards on the turn are going to hurt you.

What Miller advocates (I'm pretty sure it's SSH...but it really could be ToP) is waiting until the turn - when you're going to have a much better idea of how your hand is going to hold up - if you feel the guys behind you are going to call anyway.

I'm not saying that raising isn't the mathematically correct move, I just think that waiting until the turn to commit yourself to the pot is probably a better idea since so many cards in the deck hurt you.

I hope that made sense - like I said - I think I raise in this situation more - but I think waiting for the turn has some legitmacy as well.

Alex

[fflyer]

I guess that you might have a point if you have seen the two players behind you call with bad pot odds on previous hands, but I think I would be raising on the principle that it cannot be wrong in the long run to force my opponents to make bets that are mathematically incorrect.

[Ajax410]

Sometimes it's good to knock people out. This is one of those times.

If raising is going to knock people out, raise, by all means.

However, if you're sure that the 3 guys behind you are all holding overcards - and they're all likely to call you - I just think waiting until the turn to raise (when you're actually making their calls more mathematically incorrect) is a much better move. I think this is pretty situational dependent - but at a typical passive table, I think it's a move I would love to do - like I've said - I still think I raise to protect my hand on the flop - just offering some advice from players far better than I.

Alex

[SlantNGo]

Am I the only one who sees this as an easy raise? Sure, the turn will drastically affect your equity, but you're given an opportunity right now to force two people to call two cold and fold at least one of them. In fact, I don't see anything wrong with the way this hand was played, except maybe I'd think about open-raising PF.

[Ajax410]

I am not saying a raise is wrong - I am saying that, at a passive table where you're pretty sure overcards are going to call for two small bets, I think waiting for the turn, a play advocated in SSH (again...or ToP...not sure which) is actually correct. By raising the flop, assuming you're going to get called (which is likely at a really Loose/Passive table), all you're doing is committing yourself to a pot, where if 3 hands of overcards call you, you're a huge dog to win.

I think waiting for the turn to see how it plays out with respect to your hand is a pretty good idea in this situation. As I keep saying, I'm still at the point where I'm raising situations like this almost everytime they happen - but better players than I have advocated a different strategy - just felt the need offer it as an alternative.

Alex

[pointcount]

I dont think it is ALWAYS correct to raise here. I think that small stakes players aren't 'as likely' to fold overcards in this situation, and will often call the bets if they have a pair on the flop. I guess it comes down to if you believe the 2 players on your left are going to call. If they are, then you have poor pot equity and you shouldn't be investing the 2nd bet. I dont think it's correct to say you should always raise in this situation.

[DMBFan23]

I believe the SSH Two overpair hands section, in which Ed advocates waiting till the turn with TT, presented a situation in which you could not protect your hand on the flop, and therefore should raise to put money in the pot when you have an equity edge. the argument then explained that with AA, the turn card wouldnt change your equity much, and so you gave up a ton by raising. with the TT hand, you didnt give up as much, since the turn was basically going to define your hand, and therefore you could wait until the turn to attack a larger edge or give up if a scare card comes or there is action, given that you couldnt protect your hand.

This hand is a straightforward application of protecting your hand, and the two overpair hands section doesn't really apply IMO.

[pointcount]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand is a straightforward application of protecting your hand, and the two overpair hands section doesn't really apply IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

But by protecting your hand you mean knocking someone out correct? What about you knew that they wouldn't fold. Just trying to get it right in my mind.

[HajiShirazu]

Since the pot isn't that big I think you have a raise here. You can still protect your hand and if your raise works you'll be last to act on the last two streets.
If the pot was twice as big this would be a good situation to wait until the turn.

[Ajax410]

I agree that this move is an attempt to protect your hand.

My point of contest is whether or not, at a passive table, it is better to wait for the turn, since most players are likely to call with two overcards in a situation like this.

I am not doubting the wisdom of raising - I think, if it works in buying Hero the button and knocking out guys, it is a great play. I just wonder if it will work often enough at a LP-P table to make it worthwhile...

Alex

[DMBFan23]

"what about if you knew they wouldn't fold"

that's ok, because by definition protecting your hand forces your opponent to either fold, or call unprofitably. it's ok if he calls, it's more to his detriment than folding.

In the two overpair hands section, it was impossible to present our opponents with an unprofitable call on the flop.

[Yads]

So what if they call. If you had something like TT or JJ then I think waiting till the turn to raise would be a good idea since there are fewer cards that can wreck your hand, but with a hand as vulnerable as 88 there's just too many cards that can come so raising on the flop when you have the best of it and forcing opponents to make incorrect calls is the best play I think.

Holdem Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 2s 7d 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 8h 265 32.32 555 67.68 0 0.00 0.323
Ac Td 205 25.00 615 75.00 0 0.00 0.250
Ks Qs 218 26.59 602 73.41 0 0.00 0.266
Jh 9h 132 16.10 688 83.90 0 0.00 0.161

[Ajax410]

My point is not that raising is not a good option - I have stated...many times...that, given this exact situation, I too would, and do, raise.

My point is only that, at a passive table, I think waiting until the turn might be a better idea. Yes, at the moment, Hero most likely has the best hand...I am not contesting this point. The only thing I'm trying to say is that perhaps, rather than committing ourselves to the pot right now, we should wait until the turn, which will impact our hand in a big way...but this only applies if we're pretty sure a raise will have little impact on whether those behind us will call or fold...which is a likely situation at a passive table.

As I've stated so many times, I think raising here is the best move - if it's going to buy Hero the button. However, if we're dealing with a typical passive micro table, I think waiting until the turn might be the better move. I am not trying to state something as absolute truth - because I think this decision is table dependent, but I think waiting until the turn to raise a vulnerable overpair when Hero is in MP following the flop is not an "absolute raise" everytime - depending on the nature of the players waiting to act behind Hero.

Alex