Tournament Strategy

NL tournament. I'm at the final table, and eight of us are left. Five places get paid. Blinds are 300/500. I have 1300 and average stack is 9500 (big stack is close to 15,000). Blinds are coming around to me, and I am thinking about finding a hand to move all in. But a player two to my left has only 600 left. My thought was this: I have little chance of winning at this point, so I want to try to sneak in to fifth place. I have enough to post both blinds, and hope that the short stack busts out. That still leaves me way short stacked (a chip in the chair), but it also give me some breathing room and a chance for two other players to bust out in front of me. (Of course, if I fall into a big hand, I shove all in and hope to double through.) My question is this: should I move all in as soon as I get a playable hand, or do I run through my blinds and hope for the best?

Depending on the sizes of the chip stacks, and given the size of the blinds relative to your chip position, it might be wishful thinking to expect three players to bust out before you. Remember that the remaining players might be playing in the same 'survival' mode as you are. I guess its possible, but without winning a pot, you've got 15 hands, give or take, till you're all-in on the BB. My preference would be to go all-in on the first decent hand I got, as opposed to waiting for a 'big hand'. I guess the definitions of decent and big hand are up to the individual, but I probably push on any pair, any two cards 10 or higher, any ace, etc., if you get my drift. Just my opinion, though, as I'm not a big proponent of trying to 'sneak into the money' -- if you've got a chip, you've got a chance. Hey, double through twice and you've got 5200.

There is very little chance that you're going to fold your way into the money here. That isn't going to happen unless you survive at least a couple of forced all-ins in the blinds. And if it does work out, you'll have almost no chance of moving up beyond 5th or 4th place money.


If you find a decent hand, or if the big blind is on somebody who's more likely than not to fold, raise all-in.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

I would add to this that I believe that in desperate times, two big cards are better than a small pair or ace-little.


My logic might be all messed up here; please let me know if it is!


Suppose you are going to make your stand this hand and the poker god (as if!) gives you a choice between 22 and QJ. We know that it is more or less 50-50 between these two as to which will be better after the board is dealt, so the question is, which is more likely to beat somebody else's hand if you are called.


What kinds of hands tend to call? Any pair, any ace, ... Against a pair, 22 is in big trouble, and against an ace, it is 50-50 (unless it's A2).

On the other hand, "any pair" can be an underpair to the QJ (so it's 50-50), and "any ace" will usually be A-T or smaller (making you about 3-2 underdog I think, can't remember).


Those times when you run into a big hand are bad news either way, so on balance, two big cards wins.


It's similar for ace-small: if you get called, a lot of the time it is by ace-bigger or a pair bigger than your small card. Again the QJ would be preferable.


Guy.

Guy,


You are essentially correct but in fact A2 is a much better example of a hand that is in huge trouble when called by any Ace or any pair. QJ is a hell of a lot better than A2 in this situation. But I must admit with 1300 chips and these blinds A2 is still good enough (because time is short and you will get called by a lot less than Ace or pair)


Andy.

Yes, I agree, I would go with A2. And of course I used A2 as my example because I wanted to stress the issue. (Bad habit from teaching.)


The key thing is to realise that QJ is perfectly

good enough in this situation. For me, this was a counter-intuitive discovery, because A2 and 22 are "better hands" before the board is dealt. I have probably passed QT hoping for A2 next time on more than one occasion.


Guy.

Unfortunately, A2 is exactly what I ended up with, and was called by A5. Exit, stage left.

Tom, is it true that in Idaho the suits are


clubs


diamonds


hearts


and SPUDS

2far:


Of course, I never gamble here in Idaho. That would be against the law, and I have great respect for the law. Maybe we should ask Mike Caro what color the Spuds would be in his four color deck.

Tom,


I have had a lot of success in NL tourneys and w/o reading the other posts it's very simple. If you look at your 1st card and it's an ace, you need not look at the other one and any pair as well. If two people call in front of you or you believe it will be a multiway pot get your chips in the middle and try and triple up. At this level you need to double up once and then pick another good spot and do it again...All of a sudden your not a short stack and pretty soon your holding the trophy and the cash. If this tournament is like most 5th place isn't that much jack so get on it, double up, and win the damn thing.


Russ