7 card-stud hand, when to let go

104 entries in a celebrity bounty seven-card stud tournament. Top eight places get paid. Everyone starts with $800T. There are ten players left split five and five at two tables, I have $8500T left, an average stack. Ante is $200T, bring in $500T, and the limit is $1500-$3000T. We have just started this round, rounds are 20 minutes and double every round.


Here is the hand in question: Low card 2d directly to my left brings it in for the mandatory $500T. Next three fold to me, I have (A-J)-J, three suits. I complete the bet to $1500T, and the 2d calls (this person has me outstacked by about $3000). Fourth street brings me a 9 (suits not important in this hand), he catches an ace and bets $1500 into me.


This leaves me with $5800 and a decision. At this time the lowest stack at my table had about $2000-$3000, another had about $3000-$4000, and another had about $7000-$8000.


What would some of you have done in this situation? Results in next post.


js in mn

Well I will be kicking myself for awhile for this one. I ended up calling him down. I don't like my play here at all. I think some tilt contributed to my play since I had already pocketed $250 for knocking out one of the celebrities (The entry fee and buy-in totaled $35). Anyways, my jacks didn't improve and the other player did in fact catch his ace on fourth street, end of story.


Comments and criticism greatly appreciated.


js in mn

Do you know if there are any other very low stacks at the other table?


This is one of those many occasions where you must decide what is you goal in this tournament ?


If there are other smallish stacks you could consider folding if just getting in the money is enough for you. I would never consider this myself in your situation. I like going for the win, for the big bucks and there really is no way I would fold here.


There is T5500 in the pot when you have to call, so you are getting 5500:1500, 3.6:1 . Most likely the bring-in put you on a steal and bet his lone ace when he caught. The fact that you have one ace hidden diminishes the chance he's got 2. If he only has 1, you are a 2.2:1 favorite to win. If he does have aces, then you are only a 2.25:1 underdog to win, which is enough to justify going all the way since if you do call on 4th, you are committed to this pot. The only way you are in trouble is if he already has aces up (you'd be a 4.5: dog). But, I really can't see how this could be the case so often that it would justify a fold.


I would go for it on this hand, I'd raise him and bet on 5th.


Good luck,


Nicolas Fradet (The Prince)

Thanks for you response, I didn't mention in my original post that I had just wanted to get into the money, since I had already pocketed the $250 for knocking out the celebrity. That is why I didn't like my calling him down. I could have gotten rid of the hand and basically mucked until two more dropped, but the situation seemed too good to pass up, and I, like you, thought he put me on a steal and tried to show power by betting his ace. The other ace in my hand also did some convincing. Thanks again for the input.


js in mn

First of all, I'd forget the $250 you've won. In the words you used, you've already "pocketed" that money, and it has no connection to the hand in question.


Next, no way I'd lay down here unless the guy was the Rock of Gibraltar. There are almost no players who would have made a pair of aces here more than half the time to bet it. It's the perfect scare card, and you might have just been stealing anyway. While he might bet the A every time it does pair him, he should bet the A most of the other times as well.


I presume I've still got the best hand and I call here. No reason to raise unless you think he'll fold now (if he was bluffing).


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

As in my reply, I agree with you Greg on the folding part.


But don't you think that raising on 4th might set up a fold by your opponent on 5th ? (which, in a tournament and this case, is good) Since he's not that big a dog (compared to the pot odds)if he has a pair to your jacks, you'd really like him to fold on 5th, no?


What are the benefits of only calling since you are committed to the pot anyway?


Nicolas Fradet (The Prince)

In my experience, even if you just call here on 4th, your call alone tells the guy you've got a real hand, not just a bare steal. He's just as likely to check-and-fold on 5th as if you raised on 4th.


Well, not JUST as likely, but pretty close. And since the money is getting VERY shallow here, you need to have enough ammunition to make him fold later, without the pot growing so big he feels pot-stuck.


It is primarily because of how short we are in chips that I call rather than raise 4th. In a cash game with lots of chips, I might raise 4th for two reasons. First, if he's bluffing the A he might just fold right now. Second, if he's bluffing the A but calls, he'll fold on 5th unless he catches another A or has some other big draw. Third, if he has paired the A, if I pair a card on 5th, J or otherwise, he might lay down 1 pair of aces because at best he's chasing a made two pair and he will then think he might be chasing trips.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)