Final Three Decision Point

[Pensive Gerbil]

Nearly six hours into this no-limit tournament, I had been battling three-handed for some time when the weaker of my opponents, Fast Freddie, started moving all-in preflop around 33% of the time. My other opponent, Tired Tim, had been playing a relatively tight-aggressive style but I felt his discipline was breaking down in what had become a test of endurance. FF was the short-stack when he began pushing in; he doubled-up when I called him with AQ and when TT called him with 66. In a subsequent hand, TT (now the short-stack by a small amount) called FF's move-in with A7o and wound up splitting the pot. FF's frequent successful blind steals were taking a toll on TT and myself. The blinds were $1500-$3000 and the chip counts were approximately $140,000 for FF, $41,000 for myself, and $29,000 for TT when I picked up a pocket-pair in the small blind and had to decide whether to call another of FF's all-in moves from the button. The tournament paid $450 for third place, $730 for second, and $1050 for first. In light of the flat payout structure and TT's increasing willingness to take a stand with moderate hands, what is the smallest pocket pair with which I should be willing to call in this situation? Assume I only wish to maximize my tournament EV and do not care about the glory of a first place finish. [You may also assume that I had a large skill edge over FF and a small skill edge over TT.] Please register your opinion in the poll below and feel free to post your thoughts. Thanks!

-PG

[Pepsquad]

QQ, KK, AA. Something will happen here very soon between TT and FF. Stay outta the way until it's heads up or TT doubles up a couple times and slows FF down. Time is on your side.

[Apathy]

So you wouldnt call him with JJ here? if he is moving in with 33% of hands you arent going to be outplaying anyone by folding well over 90% of your hands to his bets. I could only see the argument of playing this tight if TT was a much shorter stack relative to you. But as it stands chips counts are too close to fold all those hands you are suggesting

-CPJ

[Michael J. Sykes]

Apathy, I suppose it's natural that you would disagree with Pepsquad. /images/graemlins/wink.gif However, I agree with his point that TT will very soon play a hand for all his chips. If this confrontation does not include the gerbil and does not end in a split pot, then it would be the gerbil's turn to gamble with the shortest stack.

In regard to the gerbil's inquiry, how low would you go?

-MJS

[JaBlue]

If you muck JJ and then the other dude doubles up, what're you going to feel like? That's right, a complete moron.

[Pepsquad]

I would agree with your reply 99% of the time given any final three scenario JaBlue. But gerbil paints a very vivid picture to the point that I'd be shocked if one of two things didn't happen within the next 10-15 hands. TT is either gone or he has doubled-up. I'm waiting for that to happen before playing anything but my most premium hands. If TT doubles up, it's push time with any sensible holding.
If you push here and lose...KNOWING that there was a 50% chance you would have gotten heads up mere minutes later, wouldn't you you feel like a...complete moron? /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

Pep.

[MrX]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm waiting for that to happen before playing anything but my most premium hands. If TT doubles up, it's push time with any sensible holding.
If you push here and lose...KNOWING that there was a 50% chance you would have gotten heads up mere minutes later, wouldn't you you feel like a...complete moron? /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

Pep.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding JJ here is a crime; folding TT here is probably also a crime.

You are waiting for more premium hands..well JJ is a premium hand in this case, given the preflop raising standards of the aggro player. I cannot believe anyone would advocate folding JJ here.

I have not voted yet, although I know I would call with TT and higher for sure...probably 99, and maybe 88.

MrX

[nightlyraver]

Maybe I'm wrong here, but I feel that if FF is moving in 33% of the time, then a medium PP like 77 or even 66 is going to be the better hand the majority of the time. A move-in 33% of the time means you are pushing w/ hands like A2, K4, Q8 and perhaps even worse. I think that it's pretty weak to just sit back and wait for the chip leader to knock out TT.

[Pensive Gerbil]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I'm wrong here, but I feel that if FF is moving in 33% of the time, then a medium PP like 77 or even 66 is going to be the better hand the majority of the time. A move-in 33% of the time means you are pushing w/ hands like A2, K4, Q8....

[/ QUOTE ]

Though 77 is better than Q8, I would fold 77 if I knew FF had Q8. I would much prefer that TT engage in a coin flip with FF before I do.

-PG

[Roman]

77 and up seems reasonable.

[ZootMurph]

My best initial guess would be he is pushing with any face or any ace. This being said, I would want to maximize my chances of knocking him out if I were going to call. So, I'd call with Jacks or better, AK, AQs and KQs.

[Pepsquad]

SIX replies for 22!?! Please provide rationale!

[nightlyraver]

If you knew what the other guy had you would do a lot of things. My point is that with a pocket pair you are probably going to be a 60%-80% favorite against most of the hands that a player who is constantly pushing is going to push with. Take advantage of it as much as possible.

[Pensive Gerbil]

Thanks to all who responded to my poll! Of the 58 current poll responses, about 72% fall in the 55 to 99 range, with the modal and median response being 77.

In the heat of the battle, I felt like I probably made a mistake about 2 seconds after mucking pocket jacks. [My decision may have been influenced by the fact that I had just lost a chunk of my stack to FF in a pot where he called my preflop raise.] TT called all-in with AQs and doubled-up after flopping two pair. I'm not sure whether TT was thinking well enough to muck AQs had I called first.

But don't despair for the gerbil! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif I battled on after that pot, and eventually busted TT when he overplayed his top-pair-medium-kicker. With the chip lead, I made quick work of FF to win the tournament! /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Do you think it was a big mistake to muck JJ?

-PG