QQ vs.solid raiser with a twist

This is a classic one I believe and normally I wouldn`t bother the august participants of this forum with such a trivia were it not for the unusual situation surrounding it.So here it goes:

NL HE final 2 tables,18plrs,1st thru4th place pay any significant money.My table`s been very heated for the last hour or so with a lot of loose-aggressive types(but experienced) limp reraising,raising,ect.Any suited Ace is good to go on their part.

The situation:

Blinds T500-1000.I am sb with around T5000.One short stack,rest avarage stacks of 3000-6000.

Unbelivably,everybody passes to the cutoff(solid -aggressive)who is the chip leader with around 10,000.Without much thinking he raises to 3,000.

Button folds,I look down and see QQ.Damn why me.

Permit me to explain.The table `s been so loose$aggressive that this is about the first oportunity for the chip leader to attack the blinds from late position.So far so good.Only problem the guy is very solid and the lineup has enforced that mentallity.I don`t put him on a steal move especially When he didn`t hesitate after everybody suprisingly passed to him.

But I have another problem.It has to do with smth. I consider to be a poker intuition but much like card counting in BJ is based on probabilities of the cards in the remaining deck.

Let me explain.The way the whole lineup passed up

almost automatic,no contemplating of their card,no interest at all led me to believe most if not all Aces were in the remaining deck and the solid raiser and that I think tilts the odds against my hand.Now I`m not an ESP guy or a believer in the so called bunching factor(the idea that if everybody passes up there is a higher concentration of Aces in the deck) but in this particular case I just couldn`t believe that the lineup would pass an Ace without at least giving it some thought .

So anyways what do I do?If I reraise all in here (my move 90%/time against late possition raiser) he`s got an easy call for 2,000 more and I`m left either a big dog or a slight favourite(but due to the bunching factor I think that`s not true anymore).

Call and bet all in if survive the flop.I clearly like this play better but the problem is: If Ace flops i `ll easily be bluffed out.If no Ace he still has an easy call with AK and of courseAA,KK.

Fold and wait for better opportunity to pick up some chips(but QQ vs. late position raiser heads up???).


Remember this guy is very tight and solid and all the his chips he has won with premium hands.

All thoughts very much appreciated.

Results to follow.

Correction.I`m in BB!Sorry!

At this stage in the tournament I would never even consider calling or folding!

Unless the BigBlind is a complete maniac or a calling station you have to reraise all-inn here.


The raiser wont raise the BB unless he has a hand if the BB is a maniac, but if BB is a ok player the chipleader will raise whit a lot of hands from that position.

No matter how solid he is, the range of hands that he is likely to be raising with here makes QQ at least a decent favorite. So, I say go for it with an all-in right now. You've already got 20% of your chips invested in the big blind, so it's not as if you're coming in cold.


In fact, with the blinds so high relative to the stack sizes, I'm surprised you've still got so many players with an average stack size that's so small, especially for a game where they've been playing loose aggressive poker.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

It's an interesting situation, all the various factors that you mention mean that you may have to be more careful than usual - however QQ has still got to be big enough to play I think.


By all means you can consider calling as well - if he will automatically call your all-in reraise especially, I think by this time he will be getting at least 3-1 and he can cover your stack comfortably. You can either bet the flop irrespective or check-fold to an Ace if you see his eyes light up and you're sure enough you are beat.


Andy.

I go all in here. If he is a solid player, he may very well fold pre-flop with a hand he would attempt a steal with. If not, you still have a strong hand and are probably the favorite. I don't like leaving myself open to a bluff after the flop, or not getting paid off when he misses and folds after the flop. Either of those things could happen if you just call. Time to gamble.

With blinds of 500-1000 and you only having 5000 I would re-raise without too much thought.


Ken Poklitar

ohKanada@hotmail.com

I agree with all of the raisers. You mentioned the small favorite/ big dog syndrome, I think it is just too likely you are a big favorite! Wouldn't he routinely raise here with 99-JJ? A better question IMHO is how low to go with a pocket pair in this situation. I'd certainly still move in with JJ or TT with 99 being where I have to start worrying.


Danny

Thank u all for your input.I did go all in.The raiser had AKo and ace came on the flop.May be I`m influenced by the result but what do u all think about the bunching factor(i.e more Aces in the remaining deck).Should that kind of thinking be employed while making a decision?


Thanks again

Even if you could see his card before the flop it would be ok to raise.....

Frankly no. The bunching factor is insignificant compared to any information you can glean from watching your opponent for tells and thinking carefully about his playing habits.


Andy.