Missed flush: call river with a low pair?

[elbuddha]

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $0.25. CO posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 (poster) checks, Hero calls, CO (poster) checks, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls, MP2 folds.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls.

River: (6.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

I'd seen villian bluff at pots a couple times. At the time I thought it was equally likely that he had a 6 or a 3 as a 9. Hindsight tells me that was a stupid assumption.

[pointcount]

Although it pains me to do it, I'd be folding here.

[Piiop]

Preflop: Good

Flop: Good

Turn: Bad! Bet again! Why do you check? There is a very good chance your hand is best here. There is no reason to assume the CO has a 9.

River: Good. A fold here would be very, very bad.

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
Although it pains me to do it, I'd be folding here.

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense, but folding here is terrible.

[Stork]

I might try for a check-raise on this turn.

[srt19170]

[ QUOTE ]

No offense, but folding here is terrible.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is the fact that he's HU a big factor? If he had 3 opponents, would it be an easy fold? 2?

-- Scott

[elbuddha]

&gt;Turn: Bad! Bet again! Why do you check? There is a very good chance your hand is best here. There is no reason to assume the CO has a 9.

I didn't assume he had a 9. But, emabarassingly, I was so focused on the flush draw I didn't consider my middle pair. Definitely my mistake there.

If I bet into him, with trip 9's he would hopefully raise and make my decisions from there much easier.

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
Is the fact that he's HU a big factor? If he had 3 opponents, would it be an easy fold? 2?

[/ QUOTE ]

The biggest factor is that no one has shown any aggression. The Hero just gave up the betting on the turn, so the CO could be betting a wide range of hands. The CO could've called the flop bet with overcards, worse flush draw, straight draws, 6 worse kicker, paired the 3, or a lower pocket pair, A-high, as well as a 9. Not betting the turn is super weak. IF the Hero bet the turn and was raised, it would make a difference. Folding would not be any better if there were more opponents because of how the was hand played.

[srt19170]

[ QUOTE ]

The biggest factor is that no one has shown any aggression. The Hero just gave up the betting on the turn, so the CO could be betting a wide range of hands.


[/ QUOTE ]

Over in this thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Board=micro&amp;Number=1299119&amp;Forum =All_Forums&amp;Words=&amp;Searchpage=0&amp;Limit=25&amp;Main=1298 018&amp;Search=true&amp;where=bodysub&amp;Name=17916&amp;daterange =1&amp;newerval=1&amp;newertype=w&amp;olderval=&amp;oldertype=&amp;bod yprev=#Post1299119), Entity says:

[ QUOTE ]

If you find yourself regularly betting the flop, turn, and river with unpaired overcards -- even against two opponents, I think you may have a tendency to take your overcards too far.


[/ QUOTE ]

That was also a hand where no one showed any aggression. Entity makes the point that no one is going to call on the river unless they can beat high-card Ace, so the river bet is a lose-lose situation. Now I know that here Hero has a pair, but even if CO only calls the river bet when he can beat high-card Ace, then Hero's still losing to everything except X3.

Entity's reasoning convinced me not to make the river bet unless I can beat a hand that beats high-card Ace, even if no one has shown aggression. Now you convince me back that other way :-)

-- Scott

[Piiop]

The two situations are too different to compare.

In this hand, the Hero has a pair and the nut flush draw. There was no PFR and the flop was checked to the Hero. Since there was no PFR, opponents will bet if they have a hand. Like I said before, the CO will be calling the flop bet with many hands other than a pair of 9's. Then when the 2nd 9 comes, it becomes even less likely he has one. We might expect a raise from a 9, however some opponents (especially at low-limits) won't raise here - but we can still consider it. The Hero will almost always have the best hand here.

In the other, the Hero has no pair (not even the nut no pair) and no other draws. Against a preflop raiser, most opponents will play passively even with a pair on a ragged board. The Hero is also against 2 opponents in this hand, so the chance he has the best hand is much smaller.

The decision in this hand to bet the river is affected by the turn action, so since he check-called the turn, check-calling the river is good. However, I would've bet the turn and my decision on whether to the bet the river or check-call would depend on my read on the CO and his turn action.

[Klak]

we arent talking about betting the river or overcards in this thread. we are talking about betting the turn with a pair and a flush draw. the hand would have played out much differently if he had bet the turn, and a river bet would be debatable.

[htc1278]

The more I think about it the more I like Stork's suggestion to check/raise the turn. No one has shown any aggression but you up until the turn when you let CO bet.

I'm a little confused on your read on CO. You say that you've seen the villian bluff at the pot a few times already yet he's posted and simply checks pre-flop. Is your read from an early meeting?