Last Stand in a NL Holdem Tournament or Not?

I’m inexperienced at no limit tournaments (or no limit period) so I decided to get a little practice at the Bicycle Club’s $50 buy in no limit holdem tournament today (BTW, I would highly recommended this tournament if you want some experience – it is nicely run and there is a very friendly atmosphere).


With five tables and about 43 players left (out of about 171 entrants) the blinds have just gone up to $100 & $200 with a $25 ante. I’m on the button and haven’t played a hand in about two orbits since joining this nine-handed table.


The average stack is about $3400. I’m on the button and am have a short stack with only $775. UTG has an average stack and opens for $800. He has been playing tight but I did see him raise UTG about the same relative amount with a pair of eights a round earlier and call an all in reraise for about twice his initial raise. The blinds also have close to average stacks and both appear to be tight players.


All fold to me on the button and I look down and see pocket nines. Note that if I go all in the blinds would probably fold. If so, the pot offered $300 in blinds, $225 in antes, and $775 in the initial raisers money for a total of $1300. The raiser probably had overcards and of course could have a pair with a small chance of the pair being an underpair. Is this a reasonable spot to go all in with my last $775 or should I wait for a better spot? Also, if you think I should call all in or fold is this a close decision?


Regards,


Rick

I think the decision is pretty close. As you say, if he doesn't have a pair, he should have two overcards. The question is how often will he have a hand like A8s, a hand where he only has 1 overcard. The other question is how low will he go with pairs? If he will go all the way down to 22, then you have a slight edge here. If he'll only go down to 55 and won't play those weak aces, then you're slightly behind (but getting pot odds from the dead money). However, if 88 is his lowest pair from that position, then even the dead money doesn't make your call correct (I think, I didn't do the math).


I would be inclined to wait for the next hand or two and a chance to be the first one in (and come in with an all-in raise, of course). However, if there has been a lot of action, and it is likely that you can't be the first one in the pot until you're almost UTG, then maybe this hand is the one to go for.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Greg,


I would guess this guy would raise with hands down to about 66 or so against tight blinds and if he was unpaired he would have two quality overcards (AK, AQ, and AJ or KQ suited) the vast majority of the time.


Most of the pots were head up at this point so I probably would have had a chance to attack first in a few hands later. Of course, if I wait as many as five more hands I'm down to $625 in playable chips against a $200 big blind so I don't have much stealing power.


So even if it's close with the dead money (and I'm not sure it is with my restated assumptions) I should wait to get a better hand or a better spot to steal the blinds and survive another round.


I called and lost to AA. I guess my dwindling stack made me decide to take a stand there but waiting and attacking when first in would have been better.


Regards,


Rick

There is a maxim in NL holdem "lead with anything and call with nothing." As you travel up the NL learning curve you will see this maxim has many corrilaries. Many of your bets in NL are designed to pick up pots uncontested. You had already lost this opportunity.


I'm glad to see you playing a few tournaments of late. I look forward to seeing you at Commerce in February.

unless you just lost a pot there is little reason to get into this spot of being low on chips with big blinds. during the last two rounds knowing the blinds would be going up you should have been pounding them.

trouble with waiting till you can attack first is that your stack does not have a lot of scare power


and if you do act later you may face more than one opponent...whereas now its heads up


you lost, but you did not make a bad decision

Ray,


When I had more chips I opened raised every hand I played for about four times the size of the big blind (there were no antes in the early rounds) and won most of my money on these steals or big follow up bets on the flop. A while before this pot I lost against an opponent who drew out on my big pair when all in so that's why I was pretty low on chips.


Regards,


Rick

Rick,


You did say, "I’m on the button and haven’t played a hand in about two orbits since joining this nine-handed table."


You waited to long. Pick a hand earlier. Once your stack gets below ten times the big blind, you have to play a hand. You can't wait for a good hand, because time is working against you.


With the amount of chips you had it really didn't matter at this point, because you would have needed to double up again. Each round was now costing you $300 in blinds and $250 in antes (assuming 10 players).


You will find out that you will have to gamble a little. Pick your spots and better luck next time.


Happy New Year


Mark

"You waited too long"(in response to Rick waiting two orbits.)


Mark,


I have a tendancy to wait too long, and am often short stacked when the antes kick-in.


In these small tournaments, or especially in daily events($15 at the Bike on Wednesdays no-limit), should a person practice forcing himself to play at least one hand per orbit at some point[like after the first break when they race off the five-dollar chips]? Or maybe more than one hand per orbit(not counting the blinds)?


Thanks

you need to be picking spots all the time to win little pots to increase your chips. the time to panic is when the blinds are going up and the blinds are cutting into your stack enough so that you lose the power to scare people with an allin bet. then all you can do is pick a hand and play it hoping to win. this point in the game you have removed much of the skill from the tournament for you and just race for the chips usually having a slightly worse hand than the other player.

Steve,


You don't have the luxury of waiting for a good hand when the blinds (blinds and antes) are increasing every 15 or 20 minutes which is common in these low buy-in tournaments. Rick was already a loser before he played his hand. The average stack was better than a 4-to-1 favorite when he finally decided to play. You simply cannot wait this long. Forget about the chip and the chair stories, that takes unbelievable luck.


I agree exactly with Ray. You need to pick your spots to take down the pots preflop. The only way you can do this is to maintain a stack. You have to take these pots especially once the antes kick in.


Now, lets say you get a pair of kings and get them cracked and you are short stacked like Rick. You need to pick a hand and go with it almost immeadiatly to have a chance. You usually will not be a favorite with the hand that you pick, but you can pick who you want to do it against.


Generally, don't even look at your cards until you notice how many chips the blinds have and the players behind you. In these types of tournaments you will not run into professional players, so look to your left and see if players are ready to fold. You don't have to have a great hand to play, but if helps if you have at least one high card like an ace, king, queen, jack, or ten if you think you may be called. If you think you will not be called, just pretend to look at your cards and move your chips-in like you have the nuts.


Good Luck


Mark

Mark,


Great Post. I think I get the idea and will look to do this next time a little earlier.


Regards,


Rick

Rick,


For practice, you may want to try the PokerPages practice tournaments. They give you $10,000 in chips to start with and the blinds increase every 10 minutes. They also introduce antes, and once the antes go up a few levels it turns into a blood bath, but it's fun. I think the practice is good, especially since it's free.


Once you get past the first hour you will not be able to play it safe anymore, you will have to gamble, but you will have reads on individuals by then so you know who you want to play against. I play these for practice since they do not have tournaments where I live. Anyway, I'll be in Tunica next week to see how I measure up with all the great posts from Fossilman and everyone else this past year.


Good Luck


Mark