Flopped a set and contemplating folding...????

[DVO]

The more I think about this hand, the more I wonder why I haven't faced it before. Maybe the answer is easy to the more experienced players here.

Early in a $50+5 PP SNG. Blinds 10/20. I still have 940 of my original 1000 chips.

I limp in MLP with black 8-8. 7 others limp/complete.

So 8 players see the flop, with the pot 160:

8-K-3, all diamonds.

SB checks, BB bets 150, UTG calls, UTG +1 calls, two fold to me.

The pot is now 610. Two are left to act after me, including the SB, who checked the flop.

I recall ( correctly it turns out) that if someone has the flush, I am a 2/1 dog.

What should I have done?

Results to follow. TIA.

[Jason Strasser]

I like calling the flop and figuring out what to do on the turn based on the action and the turn card. I think folding is a bad mistake.
-Jason

[Mez]

So with 10 outs that you can assume are clean, you're 4.7:1 to house up on the turn and you're getting slightly over 4:1 to call. You're right, this is a tough spot as I can see reasons to call, fold and even raise here (but only if the stacks were deeper).

I'd probably call this bet bc you have position on the rest of the field and you're getting a good price (esp w implied odds), but I wouldn't be really happy about that play bc you probably have to assume that you have to make your hand to win the pot and its so early in the SNG, you don't want to commit yourself to this pot.

tough spot

[TheDrone]

Sure the flopped flush is possible, but I would expect BB to have top pair and the callers probably have flush draws. You really don't want the callers to see another card, so I would push here and hope I hit one of my 7 turn outs or 10 river outs if the flush is out there.

Edit: I play mostly $10+1, and some people will even call the flop with second pair here. In higher buy-ins a push is probably not the best approach.

[zephyr]

I don't think you're up against a made flush all the time here. In fact, since its so early and the players may be a touch wild, I'd hazard that you'll only run into a made flush 50% of the time here.

Call and proceed with caution.

Only my opinion,

Zephyr

[Mez]

Agreed that its 50%. I would think that a made flush is out there bc of the two cold callers, the BB could have nothing and betting heavy on a scare flop.

[PapiChulo503]

I would probably put the raiser on a small pair or kx where x might be a diamond. You have 7 outs, I would go all in and not give anyone the chance to draw out on you. Just my 2 cents.

[DVO]

I did call the flop bet for 150.

3 of us saw the turn:

Ten of clubs.

Board now K-8-3-T, three diamonds.

It went check, check, bet of 500.

Now what? I folded. I thought one of them probably had the flush, and I was no longer getting the odds to try to fill up.

Which turned out to be a mistake; BB called, and the river was a king, filling up the BB who had 3-3. The raiser only had K-6, no diamonds, believe it or not.

[tiger7210]

This same post was discuused a while back with a flopped set of JJ (top set) in a 7 way pot with a suited board. IMHO you're probably behind here and drawing to the full house. This early in the tourny I would be folding but some people believe that is weak tight. I may consider calling the bet and looking at a turn card hoping not to get reraised, but I'm not getting all my chips in here in a 7 way pot when I'm more than likely behind.

If this were a 2-3 way pot I'm pushing here everytime but not in a pot with 8 players.

[La Brujita]

[ QUOTE ]
I like calling the flop and figuring out what to do on the turn based on the action and the turn card

[/ QUOTE ]

For once Jason gets it right /images/graemlins/blush.gif

I agree completely.

As for the turn on in, I probably get all in here without a read almost all the time, I am not 1000% sure that is not a leak in my game but you get shown down crap so often that it is hard to let it go.

[adanthar]

I push this flop 95% of the time with a 5% margin of error.

If I don't push the flop because I 'know' UTG or UTG+1 has a flush (BB almost certainly doesn't), after seeing this action I push on the turn 125% of the time with a 24% margin of error.

The two flop calls mean very little early on. The turn bet could be a lot of things, but probably not a flush; the low flush might push or bet 2-300 looking for callers (the common mistake that so many players make in the 50's) but he's not going to bet half his stack and still underbet the pot. That's not a bet that really wants a call.

So, yeah, I push. If one of the two others behind has a flush (I'm pretty sure BB doesn't but UTG is a possibility), well, when he calls I have odds to fill.

[DVO]

La Brujita,

I don't get the logic here.

If in fact Jason is right ( for once!) and it makes sense to call the flop, then if the turn doesn't help me and I'm facing a large bet...why push now?

Better to push the flop than to push after that turn card, no?

[La Brujita]

I can't tell you with 100% certainty a push on the flop isn't right. I don't think it is a bad play.

My thoughts of calling the flop are basically it is eight handed, you are not sure if you are drawing or the made hand but you are being priced into the draw so maybe letting yourself go along for the ride is not bad here. Four handed or less I probably push.

The turn helped you in that it wasn't a fourth diamond. Another made hand might take advantage of that blank to get aggressive and a drawing hand might semibluff.

I guess my thoughts on feeling my way out on the flop did not mean I would not call a push (is that good grammer?), rather I would see how the action developed.

My thinking is a bit analagous to the 10-10 hand in the two overpair hands section of SSHE (of course in a different context). Not 100% sure it is right, just what I would probably do.

BTW I was poking fun at Jason a bit because we seem to have a bit of a similar poker worldview.

[Gramps]

Like a few people said, you played it right. You have 10 outs, you almost have pure odds to call based on that (a little worse than 4:1 for chance one of checkers may push you off hand before seeing the Turn card), but you're going to get paid nicely (on average) when you do hit. When you make your hand on the Turn, you can even give the flush drawers a free card (the times there's no bet on the Turn) to try and let them hit on the River so they'll be sure to pay you off.

You missed the Turn and folded, oh well. You still have close to 800 chips, it's early, and other opportunities should come along (and you have enough chips to take advantage of those opportunities).

I think the next best play is check-pushing, and last is folding (IMO).

[Jason Strasser]

LB,

You are right on the ball IMO.

Just to add. I call the flop because a flush draw loses value when a brick is exposed on the turn. If a four-flush comes on the turn, you can play your hand like the draw it is, and get your chips in if you are getting the necessary odds to draw... Otherwise fold.

If a brick comes on the turn, get your chips in, and if the opponent has a flush good for him. You will get shown enough pair+flushdraws, 2pairs, and other garbage enough to make this call against typical opponents.

-Jason

[JaBlue]

This is just a math problem. "How often are you against two cards of a particular suit?" can be answered by simple logic: Chance to have suited cards: as friends we'll call it 1/4. Suits: 4. Chances a particular person will hold two diamonds: 1/16. So if there are 8 players, somebody has the flush half the time.

This pot is big compared to your stack, and the half of the time that you are up against the flush (who might even fold a weak one if he fears an overflush) you will fill up 1/3 of the time.

I really don't want to give a free card with middle set on a monotone board. Push!

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
This is just a math problem. somebody has the flush half the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a flaw in your logic (even assuming the "half the time someone has a flush" is correct). We have additional information from the flop action giving us clues into the opponents' hands.


[ QUOTE ]
So 8 players see the flop, with the pot 160:

8-K-3, all diamonds.

SB checks, BB bets 150, UTG calls, UTG +1 calls, two fold to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

A 150 bet plus two coldcalls on an otherwise uncoordinated board. A flush might make a bet, a flush (especially the Ace high/King high flush) would probably coldcall that bet. We have a 150 bet and two coldcalls on this scary-arse board...hmmmm...I'd say there's definitely a well-above average chance you're up against a flush - and you definitely don't want to get all your chips in as a 2:1 dog against a flush this early in the tourney when you still have lots of chips to play with (even if you pay 150 to see the Turn, then fold).

[ColdestCall]

I'm new to the forum, and this is my first post....

That being said I push here without hesitation. You will be looking at flush draws, bottom sets, top pairs, two pair, etc often enough, and such hands will call your push often enough, to make this the best play. If you win, you will put yourself in a great chip position early in the tournament. If you lose, well, if you are unlucky enough to get trips beaten you just pay it off and start another one. Trips are what you played this hand for to begin with - dont be afraid to get em in there...