Lay down the flush draw?

[RichHarden]

Table is loose and aggressive at times. CO is definitely a LAG. SB seems loose and passive.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero calls, <font color="CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero calls, <font color="CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (17 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 26 BB

It seems blatantly obvious the other 2 queens are out in full force, should I be folding this turn or even to the river 3-bet?

[MHarris]

I've seen 2/4 players go nuts on a board like this with a naked Q, but 66, 33, and Q9 are possibilities also. I don't think throwing this away for one bet is an option, but I'm not so sure I'm raising the river given the previous action.

[Nick C]

I would 3-bet the flop. When the action gets to me, I have two opponents who seem committed to the hand, and MP3 might hang around too. With two cards to come, I can expect to make my flush a little over a third of the time. The heavy action does indicate someone else may also have a flush draw, in which case my chances of making one are not as good, but I do also have an overcard that may be good if I hit it. And if MP3 or SB fold, say, A6 because of my flop 3-bet, I don't mind unless my ace won't be good anyway if I hit it (if someone else has a set, for instance).

Another benefit of a flop 3-bet is that it could possibly get me a free card on the turn. When it's two to me already when the action gets to me, I don't really expect a free turn card though (especially at a LAG table), and I wouldn't be surprised if it gets capped behind me. Basically, I'm 3-betting because I think the 3-bet is for value. What worries me most is that someone might have a set (which would mean I could make my flush and end up losing to a boat or quads), but I haven't decided yet that anyone has a set.

SB's check/3-bet followed by his lead on the turn is scary (especially since you described him as a passive player). I think he probably had more than just top pair on the flop.

I would probably play the turn the way you did, but I'm not sure that's best. You're only getting 5.5:1 on your turn call when the action gets to you. That's more than enough to chase your flush, if it'll be good when you hit. But I'm thinking there's a good chance it won't be good. Plus, you're not closing the action, and it won't be surprising at all if it gets 3-bet and then maybe even capped behind you. If that happens, you're only getting about 4:1 on your four turn bets, which is what you need to keep chasing your flush. But it looks like your flush may not be good.

I think this is one of those very rare occasions when you should fold a flush draw in a big pot on the turn. I doubt I'd actually make that fold in the heat of the hand, but I think a fold is probably best.

Looking at the river action, though, I think SB did in fact only have top pair on the flop. Or maybe he had an overpair? (I've noticed that some otherwise passive players call preflop with big pairs and then bet and raise heavily with that pair during postflop play, even if the board looks scary.)

Anyway, CO (who you describe as a LAG) is not scared and bets, but I wouldn't fold to that bet. The fact that he didn't cap the flop or turn when given the chance could actually mean his hand is very strong, but I'm not convinced he has more than trips, so I think you should at least call. Actually, your raise may be good, given SB's check, but I'd be a little worried about another check/3-bet from him. Still, he's shown so much strength that if he has a boat, he might be worried the river will get checked through. (Then again, maybe he has you on a flush draw and thinks you will bet if CO doesn't.)

I don't know. I think I'd just call CO's river bet.

After you raise and CO 3-bets, I think you should call. It's hard to figure out why SB suddenly slowed down on the river, unless he's scared of the flush, and I'm not convinced CO can beat a flush. (And I'd have to be very convinced, since I'm getting 25:1 on the call.)

[RichHarden]

In retrospect I think I should have folded on the turn as soon as I had the chance, and raising the river was out of line. Good responses...

[House-Lion]

When it gets back to you on the flop the second time (3-betted) you should cap for value if not before (3-betting yourself as one of the earlier poster said.)

[bernie]

You should be capping this flop.

No way in hell im folding this at any point.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
SB's check/3-bet followed by his lead on the turn is scary (especially since you described him as a passive player).

[/ QUOTE ]

Most passive players wouldn't play this way with a set. They'd usually come alive on the turn. 2 pair, maybe, but im still seeing the river, and once i hit it, i'm not folding it.

b

[BusterStacks]

[ QUOTE ]
In retrospect I think I should have folded on the turn as soon as I had the chance, and raising the river was out of line. Good responses...

[/ QUOTE ]

you are giving credit for the boat? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[runa]

You are definitely good to go on this hand. The flop seems fine, you're getting good odds, the turn is likely a cap, but you are drawing to the nut flush for likely the whole pot. I would cap the river as I put you up against trips. I wouldn't assume a full house because CO just called SB's 3 bet on the turn and SB called your raise on the river. I believe either of them would have capped both streets no problem if they had the boat.

[fluff]

I would raise/cap this flop approximately 100% of the time.

I don't see anywhere you can lay down this flush draw.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Most passive players wouldn't play this way with a set. They'd usually come alive on the turn. 2 pair, maybe

[/ QUOTE ]

I know lots of players habitually slowplay sets, but I was thinking that even if SB was one of those players, it did come back two to him, and maybe he figured it was time to spring to life.

I don't think a passive player usually plays a flush draw this way. I don't think he's likely to 3-bet top pair, either, unless he figures it looks like it's going to get capped anyway and he wants to stay in so he might as well put in a 3-bet himself. Any two pair is bad news for Hero once the queen comes on the turn except for 63, and I'm thinking SB, who would have just gotten counterfeited, might not lead the turn with his three-pair hand.

I don't know. I think AA or KK is possible. What do you have SB on here?

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe either of them would have capped both streets no problem if they had the boat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't really figure out what SB is doing on the river, but I wouldn't be surprised if he slowed down because he started worrying he was up against a bigger boat.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think a passive player usually plays a flush draw this way.

[/ QUOTE ]

They usually don't.

[ QUOTE ]
SB seems loose and passive.


[/ QUOTE ]

That word 'seems' is one reason i'm not putting him on a monster. Im not convinced he's a total passive. He may just be passive with TPNKs or mid pairs or whatever.

[ QUOTE ]
What do you have SB on here?

[/ QUOTE ]

On the flop, ill start with a Q. But i'd play a little cautious. Notice im not advocating raising anywhere except on the flop.

However, notice the position of the LAG. If the sb has even a remote clue, he isn't believing the LAG for a hand. So he'd be inclined more-so to jam with him. Trying to use him to get it HU. The hero has only called. If the hero got involved, then the sb may slow down a bit. He knows the hero isn't likely to have a Q or mid pair either the way he played.

b

[RichHarden]

CO shows Q9o for the rivered boat, SB mucks Q7o.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SB seems loose and passive.

[/ QUOTE ]

That word 'seems' is one reason i'm not putting him on a monster. Im not convinced he's a total passive. He may just be passive with TPNKs or mid pairs or whatever.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is something I've been thinking about over the last couple of days. It occurred to me while I was trying to describe my reads in a hand I posted (my opponent 3-bet the 4th nut flush on the river, which seemed inconsistent with my read) that loose players who need something to bet might appear more passive than they actually are, because they're limping with so many weak hands that they just don't flop something worth betting all that often.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What do you have SB on here?

[/ QUOTE ]

On the flop, ill start with a Q. But i'd play a little cautious. Notice im not advocating raising anywhere except on the flop.

However, notice the position of the LAG. If the sb has even a remote clue, he isn't believing the LAG for a hand. So he'd be inclined more-so to jam with him. Trying to use him to get it HU. The hero has only called. If the hero got involved, then the sb may slow down a bit. He knows the hero isn't likely to have a Q or mid pair either the way he played.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see your point. I know from B&amp;M play that most of my opponents who don't play very well do still try to pick up on the way others are playing and make adjustments.

Probably the same is true online, even if (in part because online play is more impersonal) to a lesser extent.

Thanks for your response.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
CO shows Q9o for the rivered boat, SB mucks Q7o.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll be results-oriented long enough to point out that these results do mean that my advice for the turn was bad. But it felt weird to be advocating a fold for such a strong draw, so I don't mind too much.