tournament results

What percentage of time should a good player be able to finish in the top 3 in the following format found on ultimate bet....


10 players, no limit holdem, everyone starts with 5000 in chips. Blinds start at 100-200 and go up every 8 minutes. First place gets 50%, 2nd gets 30% and 3rd gets 20%


What number of tournaments must one play to have an accurate sample size to predict future results?

Hard to say exact numbers. An average person playing against average players will finish 30% in the top 10. To break even you need to do a bit better to cover the rake. I would think somewhere between 40 & 60 in the top 3 is possible.


So far I have played 14 $11 tournies and ended up 1st/2nd/3rd 2 times each. So I am hitting money 43% of the time.


I would say you need atleast 50 tournies to give you a good reading. Even that might be low.


Ken Poklitar

ohKanada@hotmail.com

I have limited time playing the tournaments on Ultimate Bet, but I have played a lot of the single table tournaments on Paradise. I've played 126 tournaments(primarily the $11 and $22 ones).

I've finished first 18 times, second 21 amd third 15 for a total of 54 times in the money approximately 42%. My buy ins have been a total of $1683 my wins a total of $2270 for a profit of $587 for a return on investment of approximately 34%. I consider myself an average player, so I don't think I'm doing anything special. I play pretty tight early in the tourneys, and I try to take shots at the blinds and short stacks as the limits go up.


I'd be interested to know what others think of my tourney results.


I hope this helps,


Fitz

43 percent sounds good for the limit tourneys, they are a lot more on the random side I believe, and thus its harder to get the edge you can get in nolimit tournaments, where some of the mistakes people make can be unbelievable.

you're looking GOOD....having played over one hundred, and being on the plus side speaks well of your play


have you thought about moving up a bit??

I have thought about it, and it seems I do just as well at the $22 tournaments. Do the tournaments get a lot tougher above that limit?


Thanks,


Fitz

Until the current population either learns from its mistakes or toughens up due to "survival of the fittest", at least 70%. Really. Unless you're in my game, that will cut it down a bit :-)


As for an accurate sample size, by the time you've got enough results to be statistically significant, you shouldn't be the same player as when you started, so it can't be done IMO !!


Anyway a Merry Christmas to one and all.


Andy.

somewhat

to tell you something....guess it doesn't mean anything, but a bit over a year ago there was about a four month period during which I was doing better in the 40s than the 20s.

70% is quite impressive. Is this in NL 1 table tournies or Paradise Limit tournies?


I like the format of the UB NL tournies. Although 8 minute rounds are a bit quick one can usually pick your spots to make it to the money or to give yourself a chance.


Ken Poklitar

ohKanada@hotmail.com

It's possibly a bit optimistic. UB NL tournaments are good though, it's very hard to miss out on the money without taking a bad beat.


Andy.